Election Advantage

Farewell To Election Advantage

2010-11-03T19:15:00.000-04:00

What a ride the last four years have been. Over that time, this site has seen thousands of polls, over 60,000 hits and nearly 120,000 page views. I've covered the Democratic landslide of 2008 and the Republican landslide of 2010, and countless intriguing races and personalities. I started this blog because I felt like there wasn't anybody out there providing free, comprehensive, and unbiased analysis of the nation's political races. Between the biased coverage on most partisan blogs and the cloak-and-dagger of elite "non-partisan" analysts, I'm not sure that void has been filled. However, I'm sure that I will not be the person to fill it. I have truly enjoyed sharing my insights with you over the last few years, and I hope the coming years are as entertaining and unpredictable as the last few, because these are important times we live in. Thank you and God bless.

Matt

Election 2010 Liveblog

2010-11-02T17:25:00.002-04:00

Election 2010 Coverage

Liveblogging Will Start At Around 5:00 PM Today...

2010-11-02T10:26:00.002-04:00

until then, don't forget to vote!

Election Advantage Final Predictions: House

2010-11-02T10:00:00.005-04:00

Let's start with the state of play in the House: the Democrats have a 255-178 margin in the House, with two seats vacant-one previously held by a Democrat and one by a Republican, so the GOP needs to gain a net of 39 seats to reclaim control of the House. It seems like a foregone conclusion that they'll do just that-the only question is exactly how many seats they'll win. With polls showing the GOP leading by 5-10 points in the generic ballot, it's very possible that the GOP will exceed the net of 53 seats they won in 1994. Deep breath, here's how they look (any not listed here are predicted to stay with the current party):

AL-02 (Southeast-Dothan, part of Montgomery): Rep. Bobby Bright (D) has run well in this heavily Republican CD, but I think he'll fall just short against Montgomery County Councilwoman Martha Roby (R). Prediction: Roby wins (Switch).

AL-05 (North-Huntsville): After beating Democrat-turned-Republican Parker Griffith in the GOP Primary, Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks is favored to be the first Republican elected here since the 1860s. Prediction: Brooks wins.

AK-AL (All Of Alaska): Rep. Don Young (R) had a tough race in 2008, but accusations of corruption have faded since then, and it looks like he'll easily beat State Rep. Harry Crawford (D). Prediction: Young wins.

AZ-01 (Northeast-Flagstaff, Prescott, Winslow): Freshman Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) is in for a very tough fight in this competitive but GOP-leaning district. Polls show her trailing dentist Paul Gosar, although she may be making up some ground in the last week or two. Prediction: Gosar wins (Switch)

AZ-03 (Northern Phoenix Suburbs): This should be a piece of cake for the GOP to hold after the retirement of Rep. John Shadegg. However, attorney Ben Quayle, the son of the former VP, is a weak candidate and attorney Jon Hulburd (D) is quite competitive. Prediction: Quyale wins.

AZ-05 (Tempe, Scottsdale): Two-term Democratic Rep. Harry Mitchell is an iconic former mayor of Tempe. But the GOP tide here could take him out, and the advantage seems to be with Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert (R). Prediction: Schweikert wins (Switch)

AZ-07 (Southwest-Yuma, part of Tuscon): This Hispanic-majority district was drawn to be safely Democratic, but Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) got himself in major trouble when he suggested boycotting his own state after the immigration bill passed. 28-year-old rocket scientist Ruth McClung (R) has made this real race, but I think Grijalva hangs on. Prediction: Grijalva wins.

AZ-08 (Southeast-Sierra Vista, part of Tuscon): This is a marginally Republican district, but Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) is a very strong and well-funded incumbent. Tea Party favorite Jesse Kelly, an Iraq War veteran, has a real chance, but I think he comes up a bit short. Prediction: Giffords wins.

AR-01 (Northeast-Jonesboro, West Memphis): Initially this looked like a very tough hold for the Democrats after Rep. Marion Berry (D) announced his retirement. His former Chief Of Staff, Chad Causey, has closed the gap between him and Republican farm broadcaster Rick Crawford, but I don't think it will be enough. Prediction: Crawford wins. (Switch)

AR-02 (Central-Little Rock): This is one of the most likely GOP pickup opportunities-former US Attorney Tim Griffin (R) is a safe bet to beat Democratic State Sen. Joyce Elliot. Prediction: Griffin wins. (Switch)

CA-03 (Eastern Sacramento Suburbs): Rep. Dan Lungren (R) only won by 5 points in 2008, and Dr. Ami Bera (D) has raised a lot of money. But it doesn't look like it will be enough in this strongly Republican district. Prediction: Lungren wins.

CA-11 (East Bay-Stockton): This is a bellwether seat in the northern part of the Central Valley, and Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) has a very tough challenger on his hands in attorney David Harmer (R). This district usually follows the national trends, so I'll give the slight edge to Harmer. Prediction: Harmer wins. (Switch)

CA-18 (Central Valley-Modesto, Stockton, Merced): This district is potentially competitive and the Central Valley is really hurting economically. However, Rep. Dennis Cardoza (D) is popular and I think he beats Republican farmer Mike Berryhill. Prediction: Cardoza wins.

CA-20: (Southern Central Valley-parts of Fresno and Bakersfield) This district is in even worse shape than the 18th, and Democratic Rep. Jim Costa only won 53%-47% when he was first elected in 2004. Polling leans towards Republican rancher Andy Vidak, and Democratic spending here indicates they're clearly concerned. Prediction: Vidak wins. (Switch)

CA-44 (Riverside, Corona, San Clemente): Republican Rep. Ken Calvert barely defeated Corona-Norco School Board President Bill Hedrick in 2008, 51%-49%. Calvert looks to be in a better position with a much more favorable climate this year. Prediction: Calvert wins.

CA-45 (Palm Springs): This Inland Empire district is somewhat marginal, and Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet (D) is a strong candidate. However, Rep. Mary Bono Mack, who succeeded her late husband Sonny Bono in 1998, has a moderate voting record that matches this district well; she should win pretty easily. Prediction: Mack wins.

CA-47 (Anaheim, Santa Ana): Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D) has clearly been caught off-guard by the strong challenge from Assemblyman Van Tran (R). However, based on what's going on in the statewide races, it looks like Hispanic turnout is returning to respectable levels. Prediction: Sanchez wins.

CO-03 (West-Grand Junction, Pueblo): Democratic Rep. John Salazar's district is Republican-leaning, and with Republicans making a comeback here this year, he's in big trouble. The only public polling indicates a small lead for State Rep. Scott Tipton (R), with Salazar far under 50%. Prediction: Tipton wins. (Switch)

CO-04 (East-Fort Collins-Greeley): This is one seat the GOP pretty much already considers in the bag, as Democratic Rep. Betsy Markey has a very liberal voting record in this conservative district. State Rep. Cory Gardner (R) is clearly in command here. Prediction: Gardner wins. (Switch)

CO-07 (Western Denver Suburbs-Aurora): Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D) faces a spirited challenge from Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier (R) in this very competitive district in Denver's inner suburbs. It looks like Perlmutter will hang on, but it's close. Prediction: Perlmutter wins.

CT-04 (Southwest-Bridgeport, Stamford, Greenwich): Rep. Jim Himes (D) is in very tough shape here, evidenced by President Obama's trip to Bridgeport this weekend. The advantage seems to be with Republican State Sen. Dan Debicella; Himes needs big minority turnout to win. Prediction: Debicella wins (Switch)

CT-05 (Northwest-Waterbury, Danbury, New Britain): Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy has been considered a rising star-first elected to Congress in 2006 at age 33, he's won both his term by double digit margins. With Republicans surging in Connecticut, State Sen. Sam Caliguri (R) looks like he's got the late momentum. Prediction: Caliguri wins. (Switch)

DE-AL (All of Delaware): Rep. Mike Castle's Primary loss cost the GOP a Senate seat, but don't forget about his open House seat, which is certain to flip into the Democratic column. Lt. Gov. John Carney (D) lost the 2008 Primary for Governor by a whisker, but now he's got a House seat as a consolation prize. Prediction: Carney wins. (Switch)

FL-02 (North-Tallahassee, Panama City): Rep. Allen Boyd (D) barely survived a Primary challenge from State Sen. Al Lawson, 51%-49%. He's not going to survive the General Election though; polling shows him way behind Republican Steve Southerland, who owns a chain of funeral homes. Prediction: Southerland wins (Switch)

FL-08 (Suburban Orlando): Perhaps the best indication of where this race is at is the fact that Rep. Alan Grayson (D) has been uncharacteristically quiet for the last few weeks. It's GOP State Sen Daniel Webster's race to lose. Prediction: Webster wins. (Switch)

FL-10 (Northern St. Petersburg suburbs): Early on it looked like Rep. Bill Young, the most senior Republican in the House, could be vulnerable to State Sen. Charlie Justice (D). But Justice raised very little money, and Young is on his way to a 21st term. Prediction: Young wins.

FL-12 (Central-Lakeland, Bradenton): The open seat of Rep. Adam Putnam (R) has been a thorn in the side for the GOP, which wasn't expected in this comfortably Republican district. Fmr. State Rep. Dennis Ross (R) is favored to beat Polk County Supervisor of Election Lori Edwards (D), but Tea Party candidate Randy Wilkinson could make it dicey. Prediction: Ross wins.

FL-22 (Boca Raton, West Palm Beach): This race has been a barnburner between Rep. Ron Klein (D) and retired Army officer Allen West; both candidates have raised and spent many millions. West's association with a biker gang has come up as an issue at the tail end of the campaign, but I'm not sure it will be enough to matter. Prediction: West wins. (Switch)

FL-24 (Eastern Orlando Suburbs): Rep. Suzanne Kosmas was one of the handful of Democrats who flip-flopped on HCR, and it looks like it will cost her. All indications are that Rep. Sandy Adams (R) is comfortably ahead. Prediction: Adams wins. (Switch)

FL-25 (Southern Miami suburbs-Homestead): Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) is running for re-election in the next-door 21st District, and this open seat is very competitive. State Rep. David Rivera appears to have a slight edge over Democrat Joe Garcia, but once again a Tea Party candidate could play spoiler. Prediction: Rivera wins.

GA-02 (Southwest-Albany, Columbus, Valdosta): Rep. Sanford Bishop (D) has won by huge margins in the past, but he has a strong challenger in State Rep. Mike Keown and he's had some ethical problems. I expect this to be very close, with black turnout making the difference. Prediction: Keown wins. (Switch)

GA-08 (Central-Macon): It looks like this will finally be the year where the GOP unseats Democratic Congressman Jim Marshall, as State Rep. Austin Scott is polling comfortably ahead. Prediction: Scott wins. (Switch)

HI-01 (Honolulu): Rep. Charles Djou (R) just won this seat in a Special Election in May, and polls have him neck-and-neck with State Senate President Collen Hannabusa. This could go either way, but for now I give Hannabusa just a slight advantage. Prediction: Hannabusa wins. (Switch)

ID-01 (West-Nampa, Couer D'Alene, part of Boise): This district is extremely Republican, but Rep. Walt Minnick is very conservative and Republicans have never been fond of State Rep. Raul Labrador (R). I could see an upset here, although the GOP needs to hope that 3rd party candidates don't take too many votes from Labrador. Prediction: Labrador wins (Switch)

IL-10 (Northern Chicago Suburbs-Glenview, Waukegan): Rep. Mark Kirk (R) may well become the next Senator from Illinois, but his House seat is another story. Marketing executive Dan Seals (D) came up short against Kirk in 2006 and 2008, but this year he looks to have the advantage over GOP businessman Dan Seals. Prediction: Seals wins (Switch)

IL-11 (Southern Chicago Suburbs-Joliet, Kankakee): Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D) was swept into office on President Obama's popularity two years ago, but this year the shoe is on the other foot. The Republicans are enamored with Iraq War Vet Adam Kinzinger, and polls show that he has this race well in hand. Prediction: Kinzinger wins (Switch)

IL-14 (Aurora): Democratic Rep. Bill Foster's win in a 2008 Special Election to replace former Speaker Dennis Hastert was an early indication of the impending doom for the GOP in the House. But this district clearly leans GOP in a year like this, and State Sen. Randy Hultgren (R) may have the edge. Prediction: Hultgren wins (Switch)

IL-17 (West-Rock Island, Moline, part of Springfield): This district was designed to protect Democratic incumbents, but it's not that Democratic, and Rep. Phil Hare (D) has run a very sloppy campaign. The polling looks favorable for Republican Bobby Schilling, who owns a chain of pizzerias. Prediction: Schilling wins (Switch)

IN-02 (Northcentral-South Bend, Elkhart): Rep. Joe Donnelly (D) has aggressively tried to distance himself from President Obama, but State Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) is looking to take advanage of the GOP resurgence in the state. This will be an early bellwether for whether the GOP makes 1994-type gains or something more. Prediction: Donnelly wins.

IN-08 (Southwest-Evansville): Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) is trailing badly in his Senate race, and his House seat is a lost cause as well. Heart surgeon Larry Buschon (R) has righted the ship after narrowly getting through a weak Primary field, and he's heavily favored over State Rep. Trent Van Haaften (D). Prediction: Buschon wins (Switch)

IN-09 (Southeast-Bloomington, Clarksville): Another early bellwether since polls close here at 6:00 E-the race between Rep. Baron Hill (D) and attorney Todd Young (R) is close, with turnout at IU potentially making the difference. Prediction: Young wins (Switch)

IA-02 (Southeast-Iowa City, Cedar Rapids): No one expected Rep. Dave Loebsack (D) to win in 2006, but he rode the Democratic wave to victory. This year, ophthalmologist Marinette Miller-Meeks is sneaking up on him, but I think this district just a bit too Democratic for her to win. Prediction: Loebsack wins.

IA-03 (Central-Des Moines): Rep. Leonard Boswell (D) should be in huge trouble this year, but it looks like the personal problems of State Sen. Brad Zaun (R) will allow him to survive. Prediction: Boswell wins.

KS-03 (KC Suburbs-Olathe, Lenexa, Overland Park): Rep. Dennis Moore (D) is retiring from this Republican-leaning district, and his wife Stephene is running to succeed him. The GOP is dominating at the top of the ticket, though, and State Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) is a solid candidate. Prediction: Yoder wins (Switch)

KS-04 (Wichita): Businessman Mike Pompeo (R) is a weak candidate, but this district is much too Republican for him to lose to well-funded State Rep. Raj Goyle (D). Prediction: Pompeo wins.

KY-03 (Louisville): Rep. John Yarmuth (D) looks to have the edge going into Election Day, although some polls have suggested pilot Todd Lally (R) has a shot. Prediction: Yarmuth wins.

KY-06 (Central-Lexington, Frankfort): Another early bellwether-as Rep. Ben Chandler (D) is a moderate Democrat who has won by big margins in the past. Polling, however, shows attorney Andy Barr closing the gap-quickly. Prediction: Barr wins (Switch)

LA-02 (New Orleans): Rep. Joseph Cao (R) has held on a lot longer than many expected him to in this 75% Obama district. But the advantage is clearly with State Rep. Cedric Richmond in a district where well over half the residents are African-American. Prediction: Richmond wins (Switch)

LA-03 (South-New Iberia, Houma): The GOP and the Democrats are going to exchange the 2nd District for the 3rd, as attorney Jeff Landry is far ahead of fellow attorney Ravi Sangisetty. Prediction: Landry wins (Switch)

ME-01 (South-Portland, Augusta): The GOP is making a late charge in some of these New England seats, and some polls indicate that Rep. Chellie Pingree (D) could fall to businessman Dean Scontras. If she does, it will mean a House wipeout. Prediction: Pingree wins.

ME-02 (North-Portland, Lewiston, Caribou): A very similar story to the 1st, although this district is more Republican and the incumbent, Rep. Mike Michaud, is a bit stronger. Businessman Jason Levesque (R) has a shot, but it's tough to pick against Michaud, who's won in landslides since 2004. Prediction: Michaud wins.

MD-01 (East-Perry Hall, Severna Park, Salisbury): Rep. Frank Kratovil (D) is trying to hold on in this heavily Republican district against State Sen. Andy Harris (R), who he narrowly defeated in 2008. It looks like this year will be a different story. Prediction: Harris wins (Switch)

MA-04: (Western Boston Suburbs-Brookline, Newton, New Bedford) The Republicans would love to knock off Democratic Rep. Barney Frank, the outspoken chair of the House Financial Services Committee. It looks like management consultant Sean Bieat won't quite there, but it's pretty close. Prediction: Frank wins.

MA-10 (South Shore-Quincy, Weymouth, Hyannis): The open seat race between Republican Jeff Perry and Democrat William Keating is coming down to the wire. This is one of the more Republican-friendly parts of the state, and Scott Brown's victory seems to have awakened the Republicans here a bit. Prediction: Perry wins (Switch)

MI-01 (North-Sault Ste. Marie, Marquette, Alpena): This is the district held by Democrat Bart Stupak, who famously caved on his abortion-based opposition to HCR. He's retring, and Dr. Dan Benishek (R) is polling narrowly ahead of Democratic State Rep. Gary McDowell (D). Prediction: Benishek wins (Switch)

MI-07 (Southcentral-Battle Creek, Jackson, Waverly): Democrat Mark Schauer and Republican Tim Walberg faced off in 2008, with Schauer winning 49%-46%. Walberg should easily be able to turn that around with such a favorable climate, but he keeps getting in his own way. Prediction: Walberg wins (Switch)

MI-09 (Northern Detroit Suburbs-Pontiac, Troy, Waterford Township): Rep. Gary Peters (D) has had some ethical issues down here at the end, and Fmr. State Rep. Andrew "Rocky" Raczowski may benefit. Prediction: Raczowski wins (Switch)

MI-11 (Western Detroit Suburbs-Novi, Westland, Livonia): This is a potentially competitive district, but Rep. Thad McCotter looks ready to rebound after winning only 51% of the vote in 2008. Prediction: McCotter wins.

MN-01 (South-Rochester, Mankato): Rep. Tim Walz (D) very nearly got caught off-guard by Republican Randy Demmer in this marginal district. But he appears to have righted the ship at the last moment, and appears headed for a 3rd term. Prediction: Walz wins.

MN-06 (Northern Twin Cities Suburbs): You either love or hate outspoken Rep. Michelle Bachmann (R), and while State Sen. Tarryl Clark (D) is a good candidate, this district is too Republican for her to win. Prediction: Bachmann wins.

MN-08 (Northeast-Duluth, Brainerd): This district has been held by Democrat James Oberstar since 1974, and by the Democrats since 1946. Polls however show him neck-and-neck with Republican pilot Chip Cravaack, and this would be a huge upset if Cravaack pulls it out. Prediction: Oberstar wins.

MS-01 (North-Tupelo, Southaven): Democratic Rep. Travis Childers is lagging consistently behind State Sen. Alan Nunelee (R) in this heavily Republican district. Prediction: Nunelee wins. (Switch)

MS-04 (South-Gulfport, Pascagoula, Biloxi): Democratic Rep. Gene Taylor is a very conservative Democrat representing a very conservative district, and he's won by huge margins in the past. Taylor seems to have taken his race for granted, and that could cost him against State Rep. Steve Palazzo. Prediction: Palazo wins. (Switch)

MO-04 (West-Jefferson City): Rep. Ike Skelton (D) has held this district for a long time, and this is a very Republican district. It looks like Skelton could hang on against former State Rep. Vicky Hartzler, but it's tight. Prediction: Skelton wins.

NE-02 (Omaha, Bellevue): Rep. Lee Terry (R) only won 52%-48% in 2008 and he has a tough challenger in State Sen. Tom White (D), but this is just a bad climate for White to try and pull it out. Prediction: Terry wins.

NV-03 (Las Vegas suburbs): Polling here shows former State Sen. Joe Heck (R) pulling away from freshman Rep. Dina Titus, and it's tough not to pick him. Prediction: Heck wins. (Switch)

NH-01 (East-Portsmouth, part of Manchester): Polling here looks good for Former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, and it looks like he'll beat Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D). Prediction: Guinta wins (Switch)

NH-02 (West-Nashua, part of Manchester): Former GOP Rep. Charlie Bass is trying to reclaim the seat he held from 1995-2007, but he looks to have withered away his early advantage over Democrat Ann McLane Kuster. Prediction: Kuster wins.

NJ-03 (Cherry Hill, Burlington, Toms River): A very marginal district, and Democratic Rep. John Adler's attempts to get a Tea Party candidate on the ballot could backfire and work in favor of former NFL Player Jon Runyan. Prediction: Runyan wins (Switch)

NJ-06 (Asbury Park, Edison, Plainfield): Democratic Rep. Frank Pallone's district is usually Democratic, and while Chris Christie won here in 2009, Pallone's huge cash advantage is likely to make the difference. Prediction: Pallone wins.

NJ-12 (Central-Trenton, Ewing, Middletown): This is a very polarized district, so while the final result between Rep. Rush Holt (D) and businessman Scott Siprelle (R) could look close, I doubt Holt will lose. Prediction: Holt wins.

NM-01 (Albuquerque): Polling indicates a late surge for businessman Jon Barela, who is getting help in his race from Susanna Martinez's strength at the top of the ticket. Democratic Rep. Martin Henrich is right there, but he's just a very slight underdog. Prediction: Barela wins. (Switch)

NM-02 (South-Las Cruces, Roswell): A close race between Rep. Harry Teague (D) and former Rep. Steve Pearce (R) is on track, but the district's Republican lean looks like it will carry Pearce. Prediction: Pearce wins. (Switch)

NY-01 (Eastern Long Island): This is a competitive district, and Rep. Tim Bishop (D) has never won by big margins. Polling indicates that businessman Randy Altschuler (R) is lagging a bit behind, but it's pretty close. Prediction: Bishop wins.

NY-19 (Peeksill, Beacon, Port Jervis): Polling indicates a tight race between ophthalmologist Nan Hayworth (R) and Rep. John Hall (D) is very close. This marginal district should tilt GOP this year, but it could go either way. Prediction: Hayworth wins (Switch)

NY-20 (Hudson Valley-Poughkeepsie, Saratoga Springs, Glens Falls): Rep. Scott Murphy (D) barely won here in a Special Election last year, and he's seen his big early lead disappear against Republican Chris Gibson. Prediction: Gibson wins (Switch)

NY-23 (North-Oswego, Plattsburgh, Watertown): Rep. Bill Owens (D) was helped in last year's Special election by having a Republican and a Conservative on the ballot, and that may happen again this year. Even though Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman has dropped out and endorsed attorney Matt Doheny (R), polls show Hoffman still getting significant support. Prediction: Owens wins.

NY-24 (Central-Utica): Rep. Mike Arcuri (D) got caught napping in 2008 and barely beat businessman Richard Hanna, 52%-48%. This year it looks like he's righted the ship, although Hanna is running again and can't be counted out. Prediction: Arcuri wins.

NY-25 (Syracuse): Republican attorney Ann Marie Buerkle is a good candidate, but this district may be too Democratic for her to beat Democrat Dan Maffei. Prediction: Maffei wins.

NY-29 (West-Elmira, Corning): Democratic Rep. Eric Massa resigned earlier this year, and Corning Mayor Tom Reed (R) is well ahead of Democrat Matthew Zelller. Prediction: Reed wins (Switch)

NC-02 (Central-parts of Raleigh and Fayetteville): Democratic Rep. Bob Etheridge is polling very competitively with nurse Renee Ellmers, but it looks like it'll be close. Prediction: Etheridge wins.

NC-07 (Southeast-Wilmington): Democratic Rep. Mike McIntyre has won by huge margins in the past, but it looks like police officer Ilario Pantano could be primed for an upset in this GOP-leaning district. Prediction: Pantano wins (Switch)

NC-08 (South-parts of Charlotte and Fayetteville): Democrat Larry Kissell won here in 2008 as part of the Democratic wave, and now the tide could sweep him back out. Former sportscaster Harold Johnson isn't a top-flight candidate, but he may not have to be. Prediction: Johnson wins (Switch)

NC-11 (West-Asheville): Heath Shuler was a bust for the Washington Redskins in the NFL, but as a politician he's found his niche as a conservative Democrat representing this somewhat Republican district. Businessman Jeff Miller (R) has a shot, but it looks like he'll come up short. Prediction: Shuler wins.

ND-AL (All of North Dakota): State Rep. Rick Berg (R) has run a strong campaign and is ahead in his quest to unseat 9-term Democrat Earl Pomeroy. Prediction: Berg wins. (Switch)

OH-01 (Cincinnati): Democratic Rep. Steve Driehaus was always going to need high black turnout to survive here, and it doesn't look like it's coming, much to the advantage of Republican Steve Chabot. Prediction: Chabot wins. (Switch)

OH-02 (Eastern Cincinnati Suburbs): There's a reason why I haven't taken this off my competitive House race list yet despite the district's heavy GOP tilt. Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) felt it incumbent upon herself to talk to elementary school students about abortion; it looks like Schmidt will win anyway. Prediction: Schmidt wins.

OH-06 (Southeast-Athens, Marietta, Steubenville): This is a very rural, marginal district, and Democratic Rep. Charlie Wilson's personal issues look like they'll cost him the seat. Republican businessman Bill Johnson looks like he has the edge. Prediction: Johnson wins. (Switch)

OH-12 (Part of Columbus and Northern Suburbs): This is a marginal district and the Democrats ran a good candidate in Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks. However, the GOP tide should pretty much insulate Republican incumbent Pat Tiberi. Prediction: Tiberi wins.

OH-13 (Akron, Lorain): It looked like car dealer Tom Ganley (R) could make this a real race against Democratic incumbent Betty Sutton, but accusations of sexual harassment have pretty much doomed Ganley's campaign. Prediction: Sutton wins.

OH-15 (Part of Columbus and Western Suburbs): Even with the Democratic tide of 2008, Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy barely edged out Republican Steve Stivers, and this year it looks like Stivers has the clear advantage. Prediction: Stivers wins (Switch)

OH-16 (Canton, Wooster): This is one of the closest House races out there, as both Rep. John Boccieri (D) and businessman Jim Renacci (R) have a shot. This is a fairly Republican district, and I give Renacci a tiny edge. Prediction: Renacci wins (Switch)

OH-18 (Eastcentral-Zanesville, New Philadelphia): Democratic Rep. Zach Space has a strongly GOP district to try and contend with, and State Sen. Bob Gibbs may be just strong enough to knock him off. Prediction: Gibbs wins (Switch)

OR-05 (Salem, Covallis, Lake Oswego): State Rep. Scott Bruun is a strong Republican candidate, and it looks like the race between him and Democratic incumbent Kurt Schrader could go either way. Prediction: Bruun wins. (Switch)

PA-03 (Northwest-Erie): Rep. Kathy Dahlemper (D) has been way behind Republican car dealer Mike Kelly for months-this one's over. Prediction: Kelly wins. (Switch)

PA-04 (Northern Pittsburgh suburbs): Democratic Rep. Jason Altmire has done everything he can to show off his moderate credentials,and it may be just enough. Attorney Keith Rothfus (R) has a chance, but it would be a pretty big upset if he won. Prediction: Altmire wins.

PA-06 (Western Philadelphia suburbs): Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) has won 4 terms with either 51% or 52% of the vote each time, and with a more favorable climate he may do a few points better this year. Prediction: Gerlach wins.

PA-07 (Southwest Philadelphia suburbs): Democrat Joe Sestak's open seat is very close between former US Attorney Pat Meehan (R) and State Rep. Bryan Lentz (D), but in this year close open seats could go the GOP's way. Prediction: Meehan wins (Switch)

PA-08 (Northern Philadelphia suburbs): Even in the Democratic wave year of 2006, Democrat Patrick Murphy beat Republican Mike Fitzpatrick by only about 1500 votes-it's tough not to think Fitzpatrick could turn that around this year. Prediction: Fitzpatrick wins. (Switch)

PA-10: (Northeast-Williamsport) I don't think there's any doubt that Democratic Rep. Chris Carney is a better candidate than former US Attorney Tom Marino (R), but this district may be too Republican for it to matter. Prediction: Marino wins (Switch)

PA-11: (Scranton, Wilkes-Barre) In 2008, Democratic Rep. Paul Kanjorski staged a furious comeback against Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta (R), and history looks like it's repeating itself. Prediction: Kanjorski wins.

PA-12: (Southwest-Johnstown) Democrat Mark Critz won the Special Election back in May by a surprisingly large margin over Republican Tim Burns to replace Jack Murtha. Critz looks like he's better position now than he was in May. Prediction: Critz wins.

PA-15: (Allentown, Bethlehem) This is one of the few GOP seats they have to be concerned about holding, but it looks like Rep. Charlie Dent (R) should hold off Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan (D). Prediction: Dent wins.

PA-17: (Harrisburg, part of Reading) This is a mostly conservative district, while Democratic Rep. Tim Holden has a moderate voting record that fits the district reasonably well. State Sen. Dave Argall (R) has disappointed as a candidate, and Holden looks likely to win. Prediction: Holden wins.

RI-01 (Pawtucket, part of Providence): State Rep. John Loughlin (R) is surprisingly competitive with Providence Mayor Dave Cicilline in this heavily Democratic district, but I think he'll come up a bit short. Prediction: Cicilline wins.

SC-05 (North-Rock Hill, Lancaster, Darlington): Longtime Democrat John Spratt is clearly vulnerable, and State Sen. Mick Mulvaney was well ahead in the only public poll we saw. Prediction: Mulvaney wins. (Switch)

SD-AL (All Of South Dakota): Polls show Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) unable to get above 45%, and it looks like State Rep. Krist Noem (R) is in good shape. Prediction: Noem wins. (Switch)

TN-04 (Central-Manchester, Columbia): The Democrats attempted to localize this race by bringing up the divorce records of physician Scott DesJarlais (R), but it may end up backfiring on Rep. Lincoln Davis (D) in this heavily Republican district. Prediction: DesJarlais wins. (Switch)

TN-06 (Gallatin, Murfreesboro): This may be the most likely GOP pickup-State Sen. Diane Black is certain to succeed retiring Democrat Bart Gordon. Prediction: Black wins. (Switch)

TN-08 (West-Jackson, part of Clarksville): Ditto for the 8th District, where Republican farmer Stephen Fincher should easily take over for retiring Democrat John Tanner. Prediction: Fincher wins (Switch)

TX-17 (Central-Waco, College Station): Rep. Chet Edwards' ability to survive in this heavily Republican district is remarkable, but it looks like this will finally be the year where he falls; businessman Bill Flores is well ahead. Prediction: Flores wins (Switch)

TX-23 (Part Of San Antonio, Del Rio): This Hispanic-majority district is quite competitive, and Rep. Ciro Rodriguez is locked in a very competitive contest with businessman Quico Canseco-he needs big Hispanic turnout to pull this out. Prediction: Canseco wins. (Switch)

UT-02 (Part of Salt Lake City, St. George): Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson (D) has largely avoided the wave that's gone after so many Democrats this year, but his district's a bit too Republican for him to be completely comfortable. Prediction: Matheson wins.

VA-02 (Virginia Beach): Rep. Glenn Nye (D) has tried to distance himself from the President as much as possible, but he may have wound up succeeding only in depressing turnout among his base. Car dealer Scott Rigell (R) is the clear favorite. Prediction: Rigell wins. (Switch)

VA-05 (Southside-Bedford, Danville, Charlottesville): President Obama may be an asset in the 7% of the district that includes Charlottesville, but not so much in the other 93%. Rep. Tom Periello (D) is in bad shape against Republican State Sen. Robert Hurt. Prediction: Hurt wins. (Switch)

VA-09 (Southwest-Blacksburg, Bristol, Wise): The momentum is clearly with Republican Morgan Griffith, and the race between him and longtime Democratic incumbent Rick Boucher could go either way. Prediction: Boucher wins.

VA-11 (Southern DC Suburbs-Springfield, Mount Vernon, Dumfries): The DCCC is clearly concerned here, as they poured in some $1M last week to try and protect Rep. Gerry Conolly (D). Connolly beat Republican businessman Keith Fimian by 12 points in 2008, and while he may survive it's going to be much closer this year. Prediction: Connolly wins.

WA-02 (Northwest-Bellingham): It looks like Democrat Rick Larsen is barely ahead of Republican John Koster; Larsen narrowly won they squared off in 2000 and it could be similar this year. Prediction: Larsen wins.

WA-03 (Southwest-Vancouver): If GOP State Rep. Jaime Herrera wins, as she should, look for the GOP to tout the 31-year-old as a rising star. Prediction: Herrera wins. (Switch)

WA-08 (Eastside-Bellevue, Mercer Island): It's never easy for Republican Dave Reichert in this very marginal district, but after surviving 2006 and 2008 it looks like he'll do so again this year. Prediction: Reichert wins.

WA-09 (Southern Seattle suburbs-Auburn, Kent, part of Tacoma): This district's too marginal to be ignored entirely, but bets here should be placed with Democratic incumbent Adam Smith. Prediction: Smith wins.

WV-01 (North-Morgantown, Wheeling, Parkersburg): With Joe Manchin's fortunes turning in the Senate race, it could help Democrat Mike Olivero survive against Republican David McKinley. Prediction: Olivero wins.

WI-03 (Southwest-La Crosse, Eau Claire): This is a tough race to call because of the strength of the GOP ticket here, but for now Rep. Ron Kind (D) has a slight advantage over State Rep. Dan Kapanke (R). Prediction: Kind wins.

WI-07 (Northwest-Stevens Point, River Falls, Wausau): A marginal district to be sure, but this year the advantage is with the Republicans in Wisconsin, and Ashland County DA Sean Duffy (R) looks like a winner. Prediction: Duffy wins. (Switch)

WI-08 (Northeast-Green Bay, Appleton): Rep. Steve Kagen (D) didn't won by much in 2006 or 2008, and that spells trouble for him against Republican roofing contractor Reid Ribble (R). Prediction: Ribble wins. (Switch).

That is a lot to count, but if I counted them right, the Democrats will flip 4 seats while the Republicans will flip 66 seats, which would result in a net GOP gain of 62 seats. Whew.

Election Advantage Final Predictions: Senate

2010-11-02T09:00:00.004-04:00

Let's take a step back here for a minute-when the cycle started, the Democrats had a 60-40 majority in the Senate. And with open GOP seats in Ohio, Kentucky, Florida, New Hampshire, and Missouri, the only question was how many seats the Democrats would add to their majority. But things have done a complete 180 in the last two years, and now the Democrats are struggling just to keep control of the chamber. A GOP gain is certain, large Republican gains are likely, and a takeover of the Senate is possible. At this point, it looks like the Democrats keep the Senate by a seat or two, but it's going to be a nailbiter, and we probably won't know for sure until later this week.

Alabama: Sen. Richard Shelby (R) will easily defeat attorney William Barnes in this heavily Republican state. Prediction: Shelby 64%-35%.

Alaska: This might be the most unpredictable race of the night with Attorney Joe Miller (R), Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams (D), and Sen. Lisa Murkowski, running as a Write-In, all vying for the top spot. Predicting this race is virtually impossible, but Murkowski's high name ID and the GOP's tendency to underpoll here give some clues. Prediction: Miller 38%, Murkowski 34%, McAdams 26%.

Arizona: Two years ago, John McCain was on the wrong end of things, but he's got it turned around this year. Polls give him a solid lead over Tuscon City Councilman Rodney Glassman (D). Prediction: McCain 56%-36%.

Arkansas: Sen. Blanche Lincoln has really been doomed ever since she voted for HCR, and Rep. John Boozman (R) is in a great position to capitalize on the state's dislike of President Obama. Prediction: Boozman 59%-38%. (Switch)

California: The Republicans have had high hopes here that former HP CEO Carly Fiorina could take down liberal stalwart Barbara Boxer. It looks like she's going to come up short, although polling is quite divergent on whether it's a tight race or a blowout. Prediction: Boxer 51%-45%.

Colorado: Everything is in place for the GOP to gain here: Sen. Michael Bennet was appointed to the seat, which voters never care for, this is a swing state, and President Obama is quite unpopular here. However, Weld County DA Ken Buck is trying to make the leap into a strong US Senate candidate, and he's stumbled a bit along the way. It does look like the movement in the last few days in his direction, and I think he's got a pretty good chance to pull this out. Prediction: Buck 51%-47%. (Switch)

Delaware: The Republicans turned a certain gain into a certain loss whey they nominated political newcomer Christine O'Donnell over 9-term Rep. Mike Castle in the Primary. O'Donnell's personal life has been the focus of the campaign, and the beneficiary has been New Castle County Executive Chris Coons (D), who should win easily tomorrow. Prediction: Coons 55%-43%.

Florida: Another high-profile race that really won't be close, as former State House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) has this race well in hand. The only question is whether or not he can get to 50%, a symbolic accomplishment against Gov. Charlie Crist (I) and Rep. Kendrick Meek( D). Prediction: Rubio 47%, Crist 30%, Meek 21%.

Georgia: Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) drew a credible challenger in Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond (D), but Isakson is popular and he's going to win rather easily. Prediction: Isakson 56%-39%.

Hawaii: With the passing of Sen. Robert Byrd, Sen. Daniel Inouye (D) is now the most senior member of the Senate, having been first elected in 1962. He clobbered Republican Cam Cavasso six years ago, and it looks like he will do so again this year. Prediction: Inouye 65%-33%.

Idaho: Sen. Mike Crapo (R) is a popular, conservative, and uncontroversial Senator in one of the country's most Republican states. The only question is just how much he's able to defeat financial consultant Tom Sullivan by. Prediction: Crapo 70%-25%.

Illinois: There has been nothing but ugliness surrounding this seat-the same one that Rod Blagojevich allegedly tried to sell. The campaign between Rep. Mark Kirk (R) and Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) hasn't been pretty, with one accused of being a habitual liar and the other one accused of being a mob banker. It looks like Kirk will prevail, but in such a Democratic state it will be close. Prediction: Kirk 48%-45%. (Switch)

Indiana: The surprising decision by Sen. Evan Bayh (D) to retire really opened the floodgates here, and it looks like the beneficiary will be the man Bayh replaced in the Senate, Republican Dan Coats. Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) had been considered a rising star, but he's got no traction in this race. Prediction: Coats 56%-41%. (Switch)

Iowa: There was a time when it looked like former US Attorney Roxanne Conlin (D) had an outside shot to oust longtime Republican Chuck Grassley, but it's not happening this year. Prediction: Grassley 61%-38%.

Kansas: Sen. Sam Brownback (R) is running for Governor, and Western Kansas Congressman Jerry Moran (R) is in a commanding position to keep the seat in GOP control. Prediction: Moran 67%-32%.

Kentucky: The race to replace Hall Of Fame pitcher-turned-Senator Jim Bunning has been awfully interesting. Ophthalmologist Rand Paul is loved by the Tea Party but had a lot of trouble connecting with a General Election audience. He figured it out in the last few months, and Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway has been widely condemned for an ad he ran that attacked Paul's faith. I expect this to be not nearly as close as many are predicting. Prediction: Paul 57%-43%.

Louisiana: Sen. David Vitter (R) never seemed completely safe due to his involvement in the DC Madam scandal, and he drew a quality opponent in Rep. Charlie Melancon. But President Obama is horribly unpopular here, and it seems like voters have mostly forgiven Vitter for what he did. Prediction: Vitter 53%-42%.

Maryland: Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D) is the most senior woman in the Senate, and polls show her well ahead of Republican Eric Wargotz, a Queen Anne's County Commissioner. Prediction: Mikulski 58%-41%.

Missouri: This is a swing state, and in a competitive open seat seems almost destined to go Republican in a Republican year. And it looks like that's what's going to happen, as polling shows Rep. Roy Blunt consistently ahead of Democratic Secretary Of State Robin Carnahan. Prediction: Blunt 53%-45%.

Nevada: This will probably be the most-watched race Tuesday night, as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is locked in a very close race with former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle. Angle is polling slightly ahead, although Reid still has hope due to the strong Democratic machine here. Prediction: Angle 49%-46%. (Switch)

New Hampshire: This is one state where the GOP decided to play it safe in the Primary, opting for former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte. It appears to have paid off handsomely, as polls show her far ahead of Democratic Congressman Paul Hodes. Prediction: Ayotte 56%-43%.

New York: If Reid does in fact lose, Chuck Schumer would likely become the next Democratic leader in the Senate. He certainly doesn't have to worry about a challenge from political unknown Jay Townsend. Prediction: Schumer 65%-33%.

New York (Special): New Yorkers were slow to warm up to appointed Sen. Kirstin Gillibrand (D), but she vastly outspent former Rep. Joe DioGuardi and looks certain to win here. Prediction: Gillibrand 60%-37%.

North Carolina: This has been referred to as a "cursed" seat because no one has won re-election to this seat in decades. But Sen. Richard Burr (R) will put that curse to bed with a comfortable win over Secretary Of State Elaine Marshall (D). Prediction: Burr 54%-43%.

North Dakota: Gov. John Hoeven (R) is just about the most popular politician in the country, and he will blow away State Sen. Tracy Potter (D). Prediction: Hoeven 71%-27%. (Switch)

Ohio: For most of the cycle this was considered the one of the closest Senate races out there, but not anymore. Fmr. Rep. Rob Portman (R) has run a virtually flawless campaign and has outspent Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) many times over. Prediction: Portman 58%-41%.

Oklahoma: Sen. Tom Coburn (R) is one of the most popular Senators in perhaps the country's most conservative state. He'll win in a landslide over retired teacher Jim Rogers (D). Prediction: Coburn 67%-30%.

Oregon: Oregon's not that Democratic (less so than WA & CA), but Wyden is popular and drew a weak opponent in law school professor Jim Huffman (R). Prediction: Wyden 57%-40%.

Pennsylvania: Rep. Joe Sestak (D) looked like he might repeat his Primary performance when he stormed back to overtakes Arlen Specter in the last few weeks of the race. But his attempt at a repeat appears to have fallen short, and he is lagging just a bit behind former GOP Congressman Pat Toomey. Prediction: Toomey 51%-47%. (Switch)

South Carolina: Sen. Jim DeMint (R) was never going to lose of course, but he has to be pretty happy about drawing Alvin Greene as his opponent. It's a tough race to call on the margin because we don't know how well any 3rd party candidates will do, but it's not worth putting much thought into. Prediction: DeMint 62%-25%.

South Dakota: Republican Sen. John Thune is unopposed. Prediction: Thune wins with 100% of the vote.

Utah: Attorney Mike Lee helped to jump-start the Tea Party surge when he ousted Republican Bob Bennett at the state party convention back in May. Lee is polling well ahead of Democratic Sam Granato in a state where being a Tea Party candidate is a clear asset. Prediction: Lee 57%-38%.

Vermont: Sen. Patrick Leahy (D) is an icon in state politics, but he remains the only Democratic Senator the state has ever elected. Polls have him doubling up lumber store owner Len Britton (R). Prediction: Leahy 64%-33%.

Washington: If you had asked me a week ago, I would've told you this was fool's gold for the GOP. But it really looks like the trend has been away from Sen. Patty Murray (D) and towards former State Sen. Dino Rossi (R). Polling shows those who have already voted leaning towards Rossi, so the Democrats need to make sure all those ballots are in the mail by tomorrow for Murray to catch up. Prediction: Murray 50%-50%. Bring on the lawyers.

West Virginia: It looked like this race was getting out of hand for Governor Joe Manchin (D) in late September, but to say he's distanced himself from President Obama would be an understatement: he shot up a copy of the Cap-and-Trade bill in a recent ad. Businessman John Raese (R) is trying to argue that Manchin's party ID is all that matters, but a lot of West Virginians identify with Manchin-registered Democrats who don't like Obama. Prediction: Manchin 50%-48%.

Wisconsin: Here's one Tea Party candidate who's run an outstanding campaign: businessman Ron Johnson took the lead from Sen. Russ Feingold (D) in September and hasn't looked back. Prediction: Johnson 53%-46%.

There's little doubt the GOP will hold all their seats-the only one in any kind of danger is Alaska. It's also certain they'll gain at least ND, AR, IN, and WI. They look ahead, but not guaranteed, in NV, CO, IL, and PA. In order to retake the Senate, they'll need Washington and West Virginia-I think they fall short and win 8 seats.

Election Advantage Final Predictions: Governor

2010-11-02T08:00:00.019-04:00

They haven't gotten quite as much attention as the races for Senate and House, but which party controls a majority of the Governorships is exceptionally important, especially for redistricting. Currently, the Democrats control 26 Governorships to 24 for the Republicans-the GOP will retake the advantage, and really the only question is by how much. The Democrats are looking at taking some low hanging fruit in Vermont, California, Hawaii, and Rhode Island, but the GOP may win most of the big prizes like Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

Alabama: Gov. Bob Riley (R) is term-limited, but he's popular in this conservative state. State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) came out of nowhere to win the GOP nomination this summer, and polls have him far ahead of Democratic Commissioner of Agriculture Ron Sparks. Prediction: Bentley 58%-41%.

Alaska: Gov. Sean Parnell (R) has been very popular since he took over for Sarah Palin last year, and he should easily handle Fmr. State House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz (D). Prediction: Parnell 57%-40%.

Arizona: Gov. Jan Brewer (R) really turned around her re-election chances when she signed the controversial immigration bill. Polls have her comfortably ahead of Attorney General Terry Goddard, who opposes the legislation. Prediction: Brewer 56%-42%.

Arkansas: Democratic Gov. Mike Beebe will be one of the few Democratic incumbents who will be returning to the Governor mansion this year. The moderate Beebe has a very high approval rating and should easily beat former State Sen. Jim Keet. Prediction: Beebe 60%-38%.

California: Fmr. EBay CEO Meg Whitman has spent a jaw-dropping $160M on this race, but the turning point was the story that broke at the end of September when she was accused of hiring someone she knew was an illegal immigrant. Last-minute polls have her narrowing the gap again, but it looks like Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) is on track to win fairly easily. Prediction: Brown 52%-45%. (Switch)

Colorado: Everything that could have possibly gone wrong for the GOP did in this race, and it looks like the Democrats will hold here despite the unpopularity of outgoing Governor Bill Ritter. Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper is quite popular, and former Congressman Tom Tancredo (C) has to deal with the fact that businessman Dan Maes (R) is still in the race and pulling valuable votes from Tancredo. Prediction: Hicknenooper 49%-46%.

Connecticut: Everyone knew this would be a tough hold for the GOP when popular Gov. Jodi Rell (R) announced her retirement. And for most of the cycle, that appeared to be the case as Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D) comfortably led former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley (R). But it looks like Foley has made a last-second comeback, as the cash-flush RGA has gone hard after Malloy in recent weeks and polls show this race now tilting towards the Republican. Prediction: Foley 50%-49%.

Florida: Gov. Charlie Crist's decision to run for the Senate has left a very vulnerable seat for the GOP to try and keep. The Republican Primary here between AG Bill McCollum and businessman Rick Scott may have been uglier than any other Primary in the country, and Scott has struggled to gain his footing against state CFO Alex Sink (D). Sink is clearly the better candidate, but Republicans appear unusually motivated to turn out here. Prediction: Scott 50%-48%.

Georgia: Gov. Sonny Perdue (R) is retiring, and in this strongly Republican state, an easy Republican hold would be expected. But former Rep. Nathan Deal (R) has had some ethical issues, and polls show him struggling to stay ahead of former Gov. Roy Barnes (D). The real question, though, is whether or not he can get to 50% of the vote and avoid having to face Barnes in a runoff. I think he gets there, but not by much. Prediction: Deal 52%-44%.

Hawaii: Polling is always hard to come by here, but the polling we have seen looks good for former Democratic Rep. Neil Abercrombie. Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona (R) is looking to replace his boss, well-regarded Gov. Linda Lingle, but the state's heavy Democratic lean makes this a steep hill to climb. Prediction: Abercrombie 52%-46%. (Switch)

Idaho: Gov. Butch Otter (R) is pretty well-liked in this heavily Republican state, and polls show him with no trouble beating lobbyist Keith Allred. Prediction: Otter 55%-39%.

Illinois: Anyone taking over for Rod Blagojevich was going to have a tough time, especially if that person is Democrat Pat Quinn, who was Blagojevich's Lt. Governor. State Sen. Bill Brady (R) is more conservative than the types of Republicans who usually win here, but it doesn't look like it's going to matter. Prediction: Brady 47%-43%. (Switch)

Iowa: Gov. Chet Culver (D) has had a rocky first term, and he faces a very strong challenger in former Gov. Terry Branstad (R), who was Governor from 1983-1999. The only question is how much Branstad wins by. Prediction: Branstad 54%-44%. (Switch)

Kansas: After joining President Obama's cabinet, Democrat Kathleen Sebelius left behind her Lt. Governor, Mark Parkinson, in charge of the state. But Parkinson has chosen not to seek a term of his own, leaving Sen. Sam Brownback (R) with an easy path to victory. Prediction: Brownback 62%-37%. (Switch)

Maine: Gov. John Baldacci (D) is term-limited, and it looks like Tea Party favorite Paul LePage will benefit from a split in the left-leaning vote between State Senate President Libby Mitchell (D) and attorney Eliot Cutler (I). Prediction: LePage 40%, Cutler 31%, Mitchell 26%. (Switch)

Maryland: Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) has run a very solid and disciplined campaign, and it looks like he may actually win by more than he did four years ago against Republican Bob Ehrlich. Prediction: O'Malley 54%-44%.

Massachusetts: Businessman Charlie Baker (R) has inched closer and closer to incumbent Gov. Deval Patrick (D), helped in part by the faltering campaign of Treasurer Tim Cahill (I). Patrick appears to have the edge going into Election Day, but it's close enough that an upset is possible. Prediction: Patrick 48%-44%.

Michigan: Outgoing Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm (D) has presided over the state's most recent economic woes, and the states looks like it's ready to make a big change. Polls give businessman Rick Snyder (R) a huge lead over Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D). Prediction: Snyder 56%-42%. (Switch)

Minnesota: This state seems more immune to the Republican tide that seems to be sweeping through the Midwest, perhaps due to the fact that the current Governor is Republican Tim Pawlenty. It's not that Pawlenty is unpopular, but the GOP has an advantage in other states where they can pin the economic troubles on the Democratic incumbent, and they don't have that luxury here. Neither former Sen. Mark Dayton (D) nor State Rep. Tom Emmer (R) are particularly attractive candidates, but at this point Dayton looks like he's a few points ahead. Prediction: Dayton 45%-41%. (Switch)

Nebraska: Probably the safest incumbent this year is Republican Dave Heineman, who is clobbering attorney Mike Meister (D) in all available polling. Prediction: Heineman 72%-26%.

Nevada: The Governor race here hasn't gotten nearly as much attention as the Senate race, and with good reason. Fmr. Attorney General Brian Sandoval (R) easily defeated unpopular incumbent Gov. Jim Gibbons in the Republican Primary, and General Election polling has him comfortably ahead of Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid (D). Prediction: Sandoval 57%-41%.

New Hampshire: Gov. John Lynch's once-stratospheric popularity has taken a major hit, but he's still a bit over 50%. Former NH HHS Secretary John Stephen (R) is a good candiadte, but it looks like he's going to come up a bit short. Prediction: Lynch 52%-47%.

New Mexico: Gov. Bill Richardson (D) was once considered a national rising star, but an unsuccessful Presidential bid and allegations of corruption have really brought him down to size over the last couple of years. He's not running again, but Dona Ana County DA Susanna Martinez (R) has tried to tie him to Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D), and it definitely seems to be working. Prediction: Martinez 53%-45%. (Switch)

New York: Real Estate Developer Carl Paladino (R) is one of the more outspoken and controversial candidates anywhere this year, but that doesn't mean he has a chance to beat popular Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D). Prediction: Cuomo 59%-39%.

Ohio: A month ago, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) looked like a sitting duck, but he's staged a furious comeback and finds himself only a point or two behind former Rep. John Kasich (R). This one will all come down to turnout-the GOP's GOTV effort was weak here in 2008, and it needs to be better this time. Prediction: Kasich 51%-49%. (Switch)

Oklahoma: Democratic Gov. Brad Henry has been a popular Chief Executive, but he's term-limited, and the GOP has a great opportunity. Rep. Mary Fallin (R) is polling way ahead of Lt. Gov. Jari Askins (D) in one of the country's most conservative states. Prediction: Fallin 62%-38%. (Switch)

Oregon: Fmr. Democratic Governor John Kitzhaber is looking to reclaim the office he held from 1995-2003. Fmr. NBA Player Chris Dudley has acquitted himself very well in his first campaign, and polling indicates this could go either way. Prediction: Kitzhaber 49%-47%.

Pennsylvania: The state has a long tradition of switching parties every 8 years, and with Democrat Ed Rendell term-limited, it looks like that will continue this time. Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) has run a very steady campaign, and polls show him consistently, if not overwhelmingly, ahead of Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato (D). Prediction: Corbett 53%-46%. (Switch)

Rhode Island: The race to replace Republican Don Cacieri really turned when the Democratic nominee, Treasurer Frank Caprio, told President Obama he could take his endorsement (or lack thereof) and "shove it." The beneficiary looks to be Independent Lincoln Chafee, who was a liberal Republican Senator from 1999-2007. Fmr. Gubernatorial aide John Robitaille has been inching up, but it doesn't look like he'll be a factor. Prediction: Chafee 37%, Robitaille 30%, Caprio 28%. (Switch)

South Carolina: The GOP is fortunate to be in a good position in the wake of the Mark Sanford situation, and State Rep. Nikki Haley (R) has become a Tea Party favorite. Polls show her comfortably ahead of her Democratic rival, State Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D). Prediction: Haley 54%-44%.

South Dakota: Gov. Mike Rounds (R) is popular in one part of the country where the economy is holding up fairly well, and his Lieutenant, Dennis Daugaard looks like he will follow in Rounds' footsteps. The polling here gives Daugaard a clear advantage over State Senate Minority Leader Scott Heidepreim. Prediction: Daugaard 58%-40%.

Tennessee: Gov. Phil Bredesn (D) is term-limited, and Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam (R) is certain to flip this seat to the GOP; businessman Mike McWherter (D) doesn't really stand a chance. Prediction: Haslam 62%-36%. (Switch)

Texas: The talk here for a while was that Gov. Rick Perry (R) could be vulnerable, given his 10-year tenure and the strength of Houston Mayor Bill White (D). But the state and year are both much too Republican, and it looks like Perry will win going away. Prediction: Perry 55%-43%.

Utah: This is actually a Special Election, as Republican Gary Herbert took over when Gov. Jon Huntsman was appointed to be the Chinese Ambassador. Not surprisingly in Utah, Herbert is heavily favored to beat Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon. Prediction: Herbert 63%-33%.

Vermont: Perhaps the most liberal state in the country has actually had a Republican Governor for the last 8 years, but it doesn't seem too likely that Jim Douglas will be replaced with another Republican. Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie has kept it close, but for now the advantage looks to be with State Senate President Pro Tempore Peter Shumlin (D). Prediction: Shumlin 51%-47%. (Switch)

Wisconsin: This is another tough Midwestern state for the Democrats, as outgoing Gov. Jim Doyle (D) is quite unpopular. Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R) is one of the top recruits the GOP has, and polls show him comfortably ahead of Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D). Prediction: Walker 54%-45%. (Switch)

Wyoming: Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal is exceptionally popular, but with his two terms finished with, the Democrats don't have anyone else to feel his shoes. This will be a cakewalk for former US Attorney Matt Mead (R). Prediction: Mead 66%-33%. (Switch)

My final predictions are for the Republicans to gain 11 seats (IL, IA, KS, ME, MI, NM, OH, OK, PA, TN, WI, WY) and the Democrats to gain 5 (CA, HI, MN, RI, VT), counting Lincoln Chafee as a Democrat, which would mean a net gain of 6 for the Republicans. However, there are so many close races that GOP gains could be as low as 2 or 3 and as high as 10.

Predictions Are Ready To Go...

2010-11-02T06:49:00.001-04:00

Governor races at 8:00, Senate at 9:00, House at 10:00.

ElectionAdvantage Schedule

2010-11-01T12:35:00.006-04:00

I've posted all the recent polls that have come out in the last 24 hours or so, and I've stickied all the ratings tables at the top of the page. Tonight, I may put in a few more polls as necessary, but I basically think that's about finished. I'll be posting my predictions here sometime tomorrow morning, before obviously liveblogging the results in the evening. My prediction track record from 2008: I called 48/50 (well 49/51 if you count DC) of the states right in the Presidential election, 35/35 right in the Senate, 10/11 for Governor, and 422/435 in the House.

House Ratings Table

2010-11-01T12:33:00.000-04:00

Notes:

1) * means the seat is open, otherwise the incumbent Representative is running.

2) ** are seats where the incumbent has already been defeated in the Primary.

3) Blue means a seat currently held by a Democrat, red is a seat currently held by a Republican.

4) Any seat not listed here is in the "Overwhelming" category for the incumbent party and is unlikely to be competitive this year.

Senate Ratings Table

2010-11-01T12:30:00.000-04:00

Notes:

1) * means the seat is open, otherwise the incumbent Senator is running.

2) ** for Pennsylvania, Utah, and Alaska, where the incumbents lost their own parties' nomination.

2) Blue means a seat currently represented by a Democrat, red is a seat currently held by a Republican.

Governor Ratings Table

2010-11-01T12:29:00.000-04:00

Notes:

1) * means the seat is open, otherwise the incumbent Governor is running.

2) ** in Nevada because incumbent Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) was defeated in the Primary.

2) Blue means a seat currently held by a Democrat, red is a seat currently held by a Republican.

Quinnipiac CT-GOV: Another Poll Shows Foley Ahead

2010-11-01T12:27:00.000-04:00

Quinnipiac Connecticut Poll conducted 10/25-10/31 of 930 LVs:

Fmr. Ambassador Tom Foley (R) 48%
Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D) 45%

Rasmussen, PPP, and Quinnipiac all show this race going towards Foley, but only by a couple of points. The key is the Independent vote-Foley is crushing Malloy 55%-33% among those voters.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR FOLEY.

Quinnipiac CT-SEN: Blumethal Up 9

2010-11-01T12:25:00.000-04:00

Quinnipiac Connecticut Poll conducted 10/25-10/31 of 930 LVs:

Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) 53%
Businesswoman Linda McMahon (R) 44%

McMahon has a 5-point lead among Independents, but that's not enough since she only gets 86% of the Republican vote while Blumenthal gets 93%.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR BLUMENTHAL.

Quinnipiac FL-GOV: Toss-Up

2010-11-01T12:23:00.001-04:00

Quinnipiac Florida Poll conducted 10/25-10/31 of 925 LVs:

CFO Alex Sink (D) 44%
Businessman Rick Scott (R) 43%

One of the big question marks here is what kind of impact-if any-the Senate race has on the Democratic turnout. Republican turnout is going to be exceptional, Independents lean towards Sink-so the question is whether Democrats are really motivated to go to the polls considering that it looks all but certain that Rubio will win the Senate race easily.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR SCOTT.

Quinnipiac FL-SEN: Rubio Near 50%

2010-11-01T12:20:00.000-04:00

Quinnipiac Florida Poll conducted 10/25-10/31 of 925 LVs:

Fmr. State House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) 45%
Gov. Charlie Crist (I) 31%
Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) 18%

Crist continues to hold a slim lead among Democratic voters, but his move to the left has cost him Republican voters, and he now wins just 19% of them.

STRONG ADVANTAGE FOR RUBIO.

Quinnipiac PA-SEN: Toomey Leads By 5

2010-11-01T12:17:00.000-04:00

Quinnipiac Pennsylvania Poll conducted 10/25-10/30 of 1244 LVs:

Fmr. Rep. Pat Toomey (R) 50%
Rep. Joe Sestak (D) 45%

Toomey appears to have held off Sestak's late charge, as the most recent polls have him up by margins right about at the margin of error. Sestak has finally managed to get the Democratic base behind him, but he lags by 13 points among Independent voters.

Slight►SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR TOOMEY.

Quinnipiac PA-GOV: Corbett Up 10

2010-11-01T12:15:00.000-04:00

Quinnipiac Pennsylvania Poll conducted 10/25-10/30 of 1244 LVs:

Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) 52%
Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato (D) 42%

Corbett has a 51%/25% favorable rating, and looks like he's on his way to continue the state's tradition of alternating the Governorship every 8 years.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR CORBETT.

Quinnipiac OH-GOV: Strickland Comes All The Way Back

2010-11-01T12:13:00.000-04:00

Quinnipiac Ohio Poll conducted 10/25-10/30 of 848 LVs:

Fmr. Rep. John Kasich (R) 47%
Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 46%

Remarkably, Strickland was down by 17 points in this poll just about a month ago, but he's pretty much erased that entire deficit. I still think Kasich's in position to win-his 47%/37% favorable rating is quite a bit better than Strickland's 45%/45%, and twice as many Republicans (6%) are undecided as Democrats (3%).

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR KASICH.

Quinnipiac OH-SEN: Portman With Commanding Lead

2010-11-01T12:11:00.000-04:00

Quinnipiac Ohio Poll conducted 10/25-10/30 of 848 LVs:

Fmr. Rep. Rob Portman (R) 56%
Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) 37%

Portman has a whopping 70%-23% lead among Independent voters on his way to victory.

OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR PORTMAN.

Rasmussen CT-GOV: Foley Takes The Lead

2010-11-01T12:09:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Connecticut Poll conducted 10/31 of 500 LVs:

Fmr. Ambassador Tom Foley (R) 48%
Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D) 46%

PPP's poll over the weekend looked like it could be an outlier, but instead this may prove to be a heartbreaker for the Democrats. Malloy has pretty much led the entire way, but he's been hit hard by the RGA over the last week or two, and for now it seems fair to consider Foley a slight favorite.

Slight Malloy►SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR FOLEY.

Rasmussen CT-SEN: A Bit Closer, But McMahon Comes Up Short

2010-11-01T12:06:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Connecticut Poll conducted 10/31 of 750 LVs:

Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) 53%
Businesswoman Linda McMahon (R) 46%

It looks like there's a little bit of last-minute movement towards McMahon, but it doesn't look like it will be enough. This is close enough that Blumenthal shouldn't be too comfortable going into tomorrow's vote, however.

Strong►SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR BLUMENTHAL.

Rasmussen WV-SEN: Manchin With Small Lead

2010-11-01T12:03:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen West Virginia Poll conducted 10/31 of 750 LVs:

Gov. Joe Manchin (D) 50%
Businessman John Raese (R) 46%

Doesn't get more up-to-the-minute than this, with the poll taken just last night, but it still looks like Manchin has the edge in trying to hang on to his seat. Polls close here before they do in any other competitive Senate race, so this should be an early leading indicator of which way the Senate may go.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR MANCHIN.

PPP FL-GOV: Sink A Point Ahead

2010-11-01T12:00:00.000-04:00

Public Policy Polling Florida Poll conducted 10/30-10/31 of 773 LVs, pdf here:

CFO Alex Sink (D) 48%
Businessman Rick Scott (R) 47%

It's a testament to how strong the GOP tide is this year that the race is so close-Sink has a 44%/42% favorable rating while Scott is at 34%/54%. Scott is more competitive among Independents than he's been in other polls-down just 5-but he loses 14% of Republicans to Sink. This is a race that really is a true toss-up.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR SCOTT.

PPP FL-SEN: Rubio On His Way

2010-11-01T11:58:00.001-04:00

Public Policy Polling Florida Poll conducted 10/30-10/31 of 773 LVs, pdf here:

Fmr. State House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) 47%
Gov. Charlie Crist (I) 30%
Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) 21%

Just so we can put this somewhat annoying discussion to bed, Rubio beats Crist 48%-44% and Meek 51%-42% in head-to-head matchups, so it really wouldn't have matter who dropped out.

STRONG ADVANTAGE FOR RUBIO.

PPP NV-SEN: Extremely Close

2010-11-01T11:55:00.000-04:00

Public Policy Polling Nevada Poll conducted 10/30-10/31 of 682 LVs, pdf here:

Fmr. Assemblywoman Sharron Angle (R) 47%
Sen. Harry Reid (D) 46%

It's going to come down to the wire here in Nevada, of course, although all the recent public polling does seem to indicate just a hint of an advantage for Angle. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, all the 3rd party choices may be helping Angle-she trails by a point, 49%-48%, in a 1-on-1 matchup.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR ANGLE.

PPP NV-GOV: Sandoval Keeps Big Lead

2010-11-01T11:53:00.000-04:00

Public Policy Polling Nevada Poll conducted 10/30-10/31 of 682 LVs, pdf here:

Fmr. Attorney General Brian Sandoval (R) 55%
Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid (D) 44%

A bit closer than what other polls have found, but it's over if Sandoval gets 26% of Obama voters like he does here.

STRONG ADVANTAGE FOR SANDOVAL.

PPP CA-SEN: Boxer Holding On

2010-11-01T11:51:00.000-04:00

Public Policy Polling California Poll conducted 10/29-10/31 of 882 LVs, pdf here:

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 50%
Fmr. HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) 46%

PPP's previous polling here had always seemed a bit too Democratic, and now they fall more in line with what other pollsters have been seeing here. Fiorina really hasn't tried to mask her conservatism, and she has a respectable 42%/44% favorable rating, which is actually better than Boxer's 40%/50% mark. But while Independents disapprove of Boxer 52%-30%, they also plan to vote for her 50%-46% over Fiorina.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR BOXER.

PPP CA-GOV: Whitman Down By 5

2010-11-01T11:49:00.000-04:00

Public Policy Polling California Poll conducted 10/29-10/31 of 882 LVs, pdf here:

Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) 51%
Fmr. EBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) 46%

Whitman does appear to have rebounded just a bit in the last few days, but it doesn't look like it will be enough. She has a 38%/50% favorable rating, while Brown has a passable 42%/49% mark. Whitman has never really been able to repair the damage among Hispanic voters-she loses them 60%-34% after being competitive with them most of the cycle.

Strong►SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR BROWN.

PPP WA-SEN: Rossi Inches Ahead

2010-11-01T11:45:00.000-04:00

Public Policy Polling Washington Poll conducted 10/29-10/31 of 2055 LVs, pdf here:

Fmr. State Sen. Dino Rossi (R) 50%
Sen. Patty Murray (D) 48%

The momentum seems to be with Rossi here, and this is the first poll to show him leading now in this race. Each candidate gets 7% from the other side, with Rossi leading because of a 54%-42% lead among Independent voters.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR MURRAY.

PPP IL-SEN: Kirk +4

2010-11-01T11:42:00.000-04:00

Public Policy Polling Illinois Poll conducted 10/30-10/31 of 814 LVs, pdf here:

Rep. Mark Kirk (R) 46%
Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42%

This would be a classic example of winning ugly, but it looks like that's what Kirk is going to do. Kirk has a 15-point lead among Independents, and he picks up 13% of Democratic voters.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR KIRK.

PPP IL-GOV: Brady Appears Headed Towards Victory

2010-11-01T11:41:00.001-04:00

Public Policy Polling Illinois Poll conducted 10/30-10/31 of 814 LVs, pdf here:

State Sen. Bill Brady (R) 45%
Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 40%

Brady looks to have held off Quinn's late charge, helped by the fact that 8% of Democrats say they plan to vote for a 3rd party candidate, compared to just 4% of Republicans.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR BRADY.

PPP CO-SEN: Buck By A Whisker

2010-11-01T11:38:00.000-04:00

Public Policy Polling Colorado Poll conducted 10/30-10/31 of 1059 LVs, pdf here:

Weld County DA Ken Buck (R) 49%
Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 48%

Certainly not lacking for drama in this race, as these two look evenly matched going down to the wire. Bennet has a 39%/47% approval rating, while Buck is at 44%/48%, so neither candidate has come out of this race all that well. The good news for Buck is that this poll has a partisan composition of R+1, but so far the voting by mail has given the GOP a 5-point advantage, so this poll may be underestimating GOP turnout just a bit.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR BUCK.

PPP CO-GOV: Hickenlooper's Up 5

2010-11-01T11:36:00.000-04:00

Public Policy Polling Colorado Poll conducted 10/30-10/31 of 1059 LVs, pdf here:

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) 48%
Fmr. Rep. Tom Tancredo (C) 43%
Businessman Dan Maes (R) 8%

Superficially it may seem like Maes is playing the role of spoiler here, but with Hickenlooper so close to 50%, it seems like he probably would've won even if Maes wasn't in the race. Hickenlooper is one of the stronger candidate the Democrats have running this year-he has a 51%/38% favorable rating.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR HICKENLOOPER.

PPP AK-SEN: Advantage Miller

2010-11-01T11:33:00.000-04:00

Public Policy Polling Alaska Poll conducted 10/30-10/31 of 1539 LVs, pdf here:

Attorney Joe Miller (R) 37%
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-WI) 30%
Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams (D) 30%

It feels like the momentum may be turning here in the last day or two, as just a few days ago I would've said Miller was in a free fall that couldn't be stopped. But the story about the journalists attempting to concoct negative stories about him may swing the tide back his way. McAdams has a 50%/30% favorable rating, and since he's been the third wheel here most of the race, no one has really tried to drive up his negatives. Keep in mind that Republicans almost always underpoll here, so while we may not know the winner tomorrow, we'll know if it's not McAdams.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR MILLER.

PPP WV-SEN: Manchin With Small Lead

2010-11-01T11:29:00.000-04:00

Public Policy Polling West Virginia Poll conducted 10/30-10/31 of 1676 LVs, pdf here:

Gov. Joe Manchin (D) 51%
Businessman John Raese (R) 46%

Still looks good here for Manchin, whose approval rating actually seems to have gone up throughout the campaign; it's 70% in this poll. Manchin is still running way behind that since President Obama has just a 31% approval rating here, but at the moment it looks like Manchin's personal popularity will win out.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR MANCHIN.

PPP PA-SEN: Toomey Appears To Be Holding Off Sestak

2010-10-31T21:02:00.000-04:00

Public Policy Polling Pennsylvania Poll conducted 10/30-10/31 of 772 LVs, pdf here:

Fmr. Rep. Pat Toomey (R) 51%
Rep. Joe Sestak (D) 46%

Sestak's last-minute close about two weeks ago was almost certainly giving the GOP some serious heartburn, especially after Sestak's comeback against Arlen Specter in the Democratic Primary. But it looks like Sestak will fall short, as polls are finally starting to show Toomey at or above 50% on a fairly consistent basis.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR TOOMEY.

PPP PA-GOV: Corbett By 7

2010-10-31T21:00:00.003-04:00

Public Policy Polling Pennsylvania Poll conducted 10/30-10/31 of 772 LVs, pdf here:

Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) 52%
Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato (D) 45%

In line with the Rasmussen also out today that showed Corbett up 52%-43%, and with that kind of advantage it doesn't matter how good Democratic GOTV is here. 19% of Democrats crossover to vote for Corbett, but only 10% of Republicans plan to vote for Onorato.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR CORBETT.

PPP KY-SEN: Paul Widens His Lead Further

2010-10-31T20:57:00.000-04:00

Public Policy Polling Kentucky Poll conducted 10/28-10/30 of 1021 LVs, pdf here:

Dr. Rand Paul (R) 55%
Attorney General Jack Conway (D) 40%

Like so many other races this cycle, this race has been extremely hyped but isn't going to be close at the end. President Obama has a ghastly 31% approval rating here, and even Democrats only back Conway over Paul by a 61%-34% margin.

Significant►STRONG ADVANTAGE FOR PAUL.

Columbus Dispatch OH-GOV: Kasich Slightly Ahead

2010-10-31T20:53:00.000-04:00

Columbus Dispatch Ohio Poll conducted 10/20-10/29 of 1445 LVs:

Fmr. Rep. John Kasich (R) 49%
Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 47%

It remains a squeaker here, although all the recent polling does seem to indicate a lead for Kasich, even if it's within the margin of error. Kasich leads by 9 among Independents, an advantage he needs to keep because he's getting virtually no crossover support (6%). Strickland leads in NE and SE Ohio, while Kasich leads big in the west and southwest; the two are even in the central part of the state.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR KASICH.

Columbus Dispatch OH-SEN: Portman Still In Front

2010-10-31T20:49:00.000-04:00

Columbus Dispatch Ohio Poll conducted 10/20-10/29 of 1445 LVs:

Fmr. Rep. Rob Portman (R) 56%
Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) 40%

93% of those who voted for McCain in 2008 back Portman, but only 75% of Obama voters plan to vote for Fisher.

OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR PORTMAN.

M-D GA-GOV: Deal Still Just Shy Of 50

2010-10-31T20:45:00.000-04:00

Mason-Dixon Georgia Poll conducted 10/26-10/28 of 625 LVs:

Fmr. Rep. Nathan Deal (R) 47%
Fmr. Gov. Roy Barnes (D) 40%
Grady County Planning Commission Member John Monds (L) 6%

A similar picture to what other polls have been showing-Deal need 3% more and 7% are undecided. I still think Deal gets there, but he's running well behind the rest of the GOP ticket-their candidates are up by 18 for LG, 12 for AG, and 10 for Superintendent.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR DEAL.

M-D GA-SEN: Isakson In Control

2010-10-31T20:39:00.000-04:00

Mason-Dixon Georgia Poll conducted 10/26-10/28 of 625 LVs:

Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) 56%
Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond (D) 33%

No contest here, as Isakson is cruising towards a second term in the Senate.

OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR ISAKSON.

DMR IA-GOV: Branstad Up Double Digits

2010-10-31T20:37:00.000-04:00

Des Moines Register Iowa Poll conducted 10/26-10/29 of 805 LVs:

Fmr. Gov. Terry Branstad (R) 50%
Gov. Chet Culver (D) 38%

Culver has caught Branstad among Independent voters, but Branstad carries Republicans by 91 points while Culver leads among Democrats by only 71.

STRONG ADVANTAGE FOR BRANSTAD.

DMR IA-SEN: Grassley With Huge Lead

2010-10-31T20:34:00.000-04:00

Des Moines Register Iowa Poll conducted 10/26-10/29 of 805 LVs:

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) 61%
Fmr. US Attorney Roxanne Conlin (D) 30%

Grassley looks like he's well on his way to a 6th term in the Senate, as he remains a beloved figure in most of the state.

OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR GRASSLEY.

ABQ Journal NM-GOV: Martinez By 10

2010-10-31T20:13:00.000-04:00

Albuquerque Journal New Mexico Poll conducted 10/27-10/28 of 1003 LVs:

Dona Ana County DA Susanna Martinez (R) 52%
Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D) 42%

Right in line with all the other polling we've seen here, and it doesn't look like there will be much drama in this race come Tuesday. Martinez trails by only 56%-37% among Hispanics, and she has a commanding 61%-35% lead among whites.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR MARTINEZ.

ABQ Journal NM-02: Not Over Yet, But Tilting Towards Pearce

2010-10-31T20:11:00.000-04:00

Albuquerque Journal NM-02 Poll conducted 10/27-10/28 of 402 LVs:

Fmr. Rep. Steve Pearce (R) 48%
Rep. Harry Teague (D) 45%

Teague has really kept it close considering that he's a freshman in a Republican district against a strong challenger, but in the end he may come up a bit short. Pearce also has a big lead among those who have already voted, 60%-35%.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR PEARCE.

ABQ Journal NM-01: Barela Takes The Lead

2010-10-31T20:09:00.000-04:00

Albuquerque Journal NM-01 Poll conducted 10/27-10/28 of 400 LVs:

Business Leader Jon Barela (R) 49%
Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) 47%

The Albuquerque-based 1st is a classic swing district, so it's no surprise that it's going to be very close this year. It looked like Barela was going to come up a bit short here, as just a month ago this poll had him down by 7, but he's made up that gap with just a few days to go. Barela's Hispanic background has allowed him to make some inroads there; he loses the Hispanic vote by only 60%-34% and leads by double digits among white voters.

Significant►SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR HEINRICH.

M-D NV-03: Heck Pulls Away

2010-10-31T20:03:00.000-04:00

Mason-Dixon NV-03 Poll conducted 10/25-10/27 of 625 LVs:

Fmr. State Sen. Joe Heck (R) 53%
Rep. Dina Titus (D) 43%

M-D has basically found it even here the whole way, but it looks like Heck is the clear favorite going into Tuesday. The early voting here has split pretty evenly between the parties, but Heck gets 14% of Democrats and leads 57%-39% among Independents.

Slight Titus►SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR HECK.

SSN FL-25: Tight Race

2010-10-31T19:59:00.000-04:00

Sunshine State News FL-25 Poll conducted 10/25-10/26 of 700 LVs, pdf here:

State Rep. David Rivera (R) 44%
Fmr. Miami-Dade County Democratic Party Chair Joe Garcia (D) 43%
Businessman Roly Arrojo (T) 6%

Outside of the obvious 3 (LA-02, DE-AL, IL-10), this is one of the very few House seats the GOP has to be concerned about winning. The good news for Rivera: he is lesser-known than Garcia, the early voting is strong for the GOP in FL, and this is Marco Rubio's home turf. The Democrats have been trying to prop up Arrojo's candidacy, and it's clear why: he wins 8% of Republicans but just 2% of Democrats.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR RIVERA.

Rasmussen VT-GOV: Shumlin Takes Back The Lead

2010-10-31T19:48:00.001-04:00

Rasmussen Vermont Poll conducted 10/28 of 750 LVs:

State Senate President Peter Shumlin (D) 50%
Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie (R) 45%

It looks like the late deciders in this race are going towards Shumlin, which may not be a huge surprise given the state's huge Democratic tilt. I thought that Dubie's statewide track record and strength as a candidate would allow him to overcome the state's predispositions, but at the moment it looks good for Shumlin.

Slight Dubie►SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR SHUMLIN.

Rasmussen NH-GOV: Lynch Up 6

2010-10-31T19:44:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen New Hampshire Poll conducted 10/27 of 750 LVs:

Gov. John Lynch (D) 51%
Fmr. NH HHS Secretary John Stephen (R) 45%

Not a whole lot of breathing room here for Lynch, but with both Rasmussen and PPP putting him at 51%, it looks like he'll survive. Lynch's own win in 2004 over Republican incumbent Craig Benson was a big surprise, as was Hillary Clinton's Primary win here in 2008, so if you're looking for a sleeper this could be it.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR LYNCH.

Rasmussen AR-SEN: Boozman On Track For Switch

2010-10-31T19:40:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Arkansas Poll conducted 10/28 of 500 LVs:

Rep. John Boozman (R) 55%
Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) 36%

Lincoln has done a much better job of getting here base behind her than she was earlier in the campaign, as she now wins 82% of Democratic voters. However, she's still getting walloped, 65%-21% among Independents.

OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR BOOZMAN.

SUSA NY-GOV: Cuomo With Big Lead Over Paladino

2010-10-31T19:38:00.000-04:00

SurveyUSA New York Poll conducted 10/25-10/28 of 544 LVs:

Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) 55%
Real Estate Developer Carl Paladino (R) 33%

Actually surprising the margin isn't wider given the fact that Cuomo has a 46%/32% favorable rating while Paladino is at 24%/49%. Half of voters say they're more enthusiastic about voting than usual, and Paladino carries them 47%-44%, but Cuomo has a commanding lead among those who say they're enthusiasm is the same or less than usual.

OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR CUOMO.

SUSA NY-SEN (S): Gillibrand Up 20

2010-10-31T19:35:00.000-04:00

SurveyUSA New York Poll conducted 10/25-10/28 of 544 LVs:

Sen. Kirstin Gillibrand (D) 56%
Fmr. Rep. Joe DioGuardi (R) 36%

Certain states seem immune to the GOP wave this year, and New York looks like it's one of them. 24% of Republicans plan to vote for Gillibrand, and she leads by 8 points among Independent voters.

OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR GILLIBRAND.

SUSA NY-SEN: Schumer In A Commanding Position

2010-10-31T19:30:00.000-04:00

SurveyUSA New York Poll conducted 10/25-10/28 of 544 LVs:

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) 62%
Political Consultant Jay Townsend (R) 32%

An easy race for Schumer, who wins 27% of Republicans, 26% of conservatives, and 21% of those who view the Tea Party favorably.

OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR SCHUMER.

Rasmussen PA-GOV: Corbett By 9

2010-10-31T09:35:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Pennsylvania Poll conducted 10/28 of 750 LVs:

Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) 52%
Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato (D) 43%

Grrr...just minutes after I entered the last iteration of this poll a new one comes out. Corbett's lead has almost doubled since last time, up from 5 points, and it looks extremely likely that he's going to win.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR CORBETT.

Rasmussen NM-GOV: Martinez Putting It Away

2010-10-31T09:30:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen New Mexico Poll conducted 10/24 of 750 LVs:

Dona Ana County DA Susanna Martinez (R) 52%
Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D) 42%

All the polling seems to be converging on about a 10-point lead for Martinez, and it looks like that's the way this race is going to wind up. Martinez has a 59%/36% favorable rating, and better than a 4:1 lead among Independent voters.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR MARTINEZ.

Rasmussen CT-GOV: Malloy's Lead Down To 3

2010-10-31T09:28:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Connecticut Poll conducted 10/24 of 500 LVs:

Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D) 49%
Fmr. Ambassador Tom Foley (R) 46%

Foley continues to close the gap here, slowly but surely, as the RGA has been hammering Malloy on the airwaves over the last couple of weeks. We'll see if it's enough, but Foley clearly seems to have avoided much backlash from his arrest record that came out right around the Primary.

Significant►SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR MALLOY.

Rasmussen GA-GOV: Deal Just Shy Of 50

2010-10-31T09:25:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Georgia Poll conducted 10/24 of 750 LVs:

Fmr. Rep. Nathan Deal (R) 49%
Fmr. Gov. Roy Barnes (D) 39%
Grady County Planning Commission Member John Monds (L) 5%

Identical to SUSA's finding this week, although here Monds' support is slightly lower (5% instead of 8%). With a very motivated GOP base in Georgia, I think Deal gets to the 50% threshold he needs in order to avoid a runoff.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR DEAL.

Rasmussen MD-GOV: O'Malley By 10

2010-10-31T09:23:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Maryland Poll conducted 10/24 of 750 LVs:

Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) 52%
Fmr. Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) 42%

O'Malley has run a very good campaign here, going after Ehrlich for his time as a lobbyist and his decision to raise property taxes. The state's deep ties to the federal government have also helped brace the state somewhat from the recession that's hitting harder in other states.

STRONG ADVANTAGE FOR O'MALLEY.

Rasmussen PA-GOV: Corbett Hanging On

2010-10-31T09:21:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Pennsylvania Poll conducted 10/21 of 750 LVs:

Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) 50%
Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato (D) 45%

Corbett's lead has pretty much tracked Pat Toomey's in the Senate race, although it's probably about 3-4 points wider than Toomey's advantage. The state's Democratic base is a little too large for Corbett to win by the 10-15 points prior polling had suggested, but he should still win fairly comfortably.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR CORBETT.

Rasmussen AR-GOV: Beebe Hits 60%

2010-10-31T09:18:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Arkansas Poll conducted 10/28 of 500 LVs:

Gov. Mike Beebe (D) 60%
Fmr. State Sen. Jim Keet (R) 38%

Beebe has a whopping 78% approval rating-once John Hoeven moves to the Senate, Beebe would probably become the most popular Governor in the country.

OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR BEEBE.

Rasmussen AZ-GOV: Brewer Way Ahead

2010-10-31T09:16:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Arizona Poll conducted 10/28 of 500 LVs:

Gov. Jan Brewer (R) 53%
Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) 39%

Brewer has a 58%/41% favorable rating overall, which tracks the horserace numbers pretty closely. She's ahead 53%-43% among those who have already voted.

STRONG ADVANTAGE FOR BREWER.

Rasmussen CO-GOV: Hickenlooper Holding On

2010-10-31T09:14:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Colorado Poll conducted 10/28 of 750 LVs:

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) 47%
Fmr. Rep. Tom Tancredo (C) 42%
Businessman Dan Maes (R) 5%

Maes' support continues to drop to near zero, but it still doesn't look like it's going to be quite enough. Tancredo has actually run a pretty good General Election campaign-if he had won for the GOP nomination, he probably would've won the Primary and might have been able to beat Hickenlooper 1-on-1.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR HICKENLOOPER.

Rasmussen MA-GOV: Patrick's Lead Trimmed To Two

2010-10-31T09:11:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Massachusetts Poll conducted 10/27 of 750 LVs:

Gov. Deval Patrick (D) 46%
Health Care CEO Charlie Baker (R) 44%
Treasurer Tim Cahill (I) 6%

A lot of the attention in this race went to Cahill's candidacy early on, but at the end of the day his share of the vote is going to be pretty small and split pretty evenly between the parties. Patrick's run a solid campaign, and Baker's lack of political experience has shown just often enough to keep him a little behind.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR PATRICK.

Rasmussen CA-GOV: Whitman A Bit Closer

2010-10-31T09:06:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen California Poll conducted 10/27 of 750 LVs:

Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) 49%
Fmr. EBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) 45%

The closet any poll has found it in a while, but this really looks more like a bit of an outlier towards Whitman. My guess is that Whitman's deficit is closer to 10 points, and really she never managed to recover from the illegal immigrant story.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR BROWN.

Rasmussen FL-GOV: Scott By Just 3

2010-10-31T09:04:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Florida Poll conducted 10/27 of 750 LVs:

Businessman Rick Scott (R) 48%
CFO Alex Sink (D) 45%

Closer than the 6-point lead for Scott than Rasmussen found last time, and this is actually a much closer and perhaps more important race than the Senate contest. What's interesting is that the polling here has been all over the place-some show Scott comfortably ahead, some show Sink with the clear advantage. And yet despite the importance of this race, the Democrats don't seem to be putting in the effort here they are in, say, Ohio-do they know which set of polls is right? And which one is it?

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR SCOTT.

Rasmussen ME-GOV: LePage Up Double Digits Again

2010-10-31T08:59:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Maine Poll conducted 10/26 of 500 LVs:

Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R) 40%
State Senate President Libby Mitchell (D) 26%
Attorney Eliot Cutler (I) 26%

This poll confirms what other polls have been saying over the last couple of weeks-LePage and Cutler are moving in the right direction while Mitchell is going backwards. At this point, I think it's fair to say that Cutler poses a bigger threat to LePage than Mitchell; the problem is that with early voting there may already be too many votes banked for LePage (and Mitchell).

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR LePAGE.

Rasmussen OH-GOV: Kasich By 4

2010-10-31T08:53:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Ohio Poll conducted 10/26 of 500 LVs:

Fmr. Rep. John Kasich (R) 48%
Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 44%

This race has clearly tightened quite a bit heading into the last couple of days, and Democrats realize the importance of this race in redistricting; President Obama was in Cleveland yesterday. Most of the public polls favor Kasich, albeit slightly, and as the challenger the few undecideds may also break his way. The good news for Strickland is that this is one of the few states where Democrats really seem to be on the ball in early voting, which could be the difference in such a close race.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR KASICH.

Rasmussen OR-GOV: Dudley Takes Back The Lead

2010-10-31T08:50:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Oregon Poll conducted 10/25 of 750 LVs:

Fmr. NBA Player Chris Dudley (R) 49%
Fmr. Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) 46%

It's funny how so often following these polls can lead you into circular logic. In this case, the SUSA poll that showed Kitzhaber up 8 makes me skeptical of this one, but then again this poll make skeptical of SUSA. Usually splitting the difference (in this case, a 2-3 point Kitzhaber lead) will get you pretty close, and for now that's my best guess for where the race is at. This does seem like one of the few that could legitimately go either way going into Tuesday.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR KITZHABER.

Rasmussen NV-GOV: Sanodval Crushing Reid

2010-10-31T08:45:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Nevada Poll conducted 10/25 of 750 LVs:

Fmr. Attorney General Brian Sandoval (R) 58%
Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid (D) 35%

Sandoval has a 62%/35% favorable rating, making him one of the most popular candidates running for Governor anywhere this year.

STRONG ADVANTAGE FOR SANDOVAL.

Rasmussen WI-GOV: Walker Still Comfortably Ahead

2010-10-31T08:41:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Wisconsin Poll conducted 10/25 of 750 LVs:

Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R) 52%
Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) 42%

In other states, the polling has bounced around quite a lot, but it's been very consistent here. The last 4 polls here, from 4 different companies, have Walker up 10, 9, 7, and now 10.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR WALKER.

Rasmussen NH-SEN: Ayotte Looking At Big Win

2010-10-31T08:39:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen New Hampshire Poll conducted 10/27 of 500 LVs:

Fmr. Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) 56%
Rep. Paul Hodes (D) 41%

When this cycle started and Sen. Judd Gregg (R) had announced his retirement, I considered this most vulnerable Senate seat on either side this year. Things have changed quite a lot in the last two years, and this is a perfect example.

STRONG ADVANTAGE FOR AYOTTE.

Rasmussen OH-SEN: Portman's Lead Gets Wider

2010-10-30T13:44:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Ohio Poll conducted 10/26 of 750 LVs:

Fmr. Rep. Rob Portman (R) 57%
Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) 33%

An extremely impressive performance by Portman, who looks to be well on his way to becoming the state's junior Senator.

OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR PORTMAN.

Rasmussen AZ-SEN: No Contest For McCain

2010-10-30T13:42:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Arizona Poll conducted 10/28 of 500 LVs:

Sen. John McCain (R) 52%
Fmr. Tuscon City Councilman Rodney Glassman (D) 32%

Still a lot who are undecided or plan to vote for "some other candidate," but McCain remains the heavy favorite to win a 5th Senate term.

OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR McCAIN.

Rasmussen FL-SEN: Rubio Hits 50%

2010-10-30T13:40:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Florida Poll conducted 10/27 of 750 LVs:

Fmr. State House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) 50%
Gov. Charlie Crist (I) 30%
Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) 16%

It doesn't matter much how the rest of the vote is distributed if Rubio's at 50%, and it looks like this one really won't be close. Crist has taken back the lead among Democrats from Meek, 47%-38%, but his support among Independents has crumbled; he's down to just 29% of them.

STRONG ADVANTAGE FOR RUBIO.

Rasmussen KY-SEN: Paul By 12

2010-10-30T13:36:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Kentucky Poll conducted 10/27 of 500 LVs:

Dr. Rand Paul (R) 53%
Attorney General Jack Conway (D) 41%

This race has really gotten far more attention than it probably deserves due to Paul's unorthodox candidacy. But that could make it a bigger deal than it really is if Paul is called as the winner early on Election Night (polls here close at 6:00 E, first in the country along with Indiana).

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR PAUL.

Rasmussen OR-SEN: Wyden Keeps Big Lead

2010-10-30T13:34:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Oregon Poll conducted 10/25 of 750 LVs:

Sen. Ron Wyden (D) 53%
Law School Professor Jim Huffman (R) 42%

Much closer than other polls have found it, but in this very polarized state, it woudn't surprise me much if Wyden only won by about 15 points or so. Wyden has a solid 58%/38% favorable rating, but given the way this year turned out, he's probably very relieved the GOP didn't get more than a sacrificial lamb against him.

OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR WYDEN.

Rasmussen PA-SEN: Toomey Keeps Small Lead

2010-10-30T13:30:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Pennsylvania Poll conducted 10/28 of 750 LVs:

Fmr. Rep. Pat Toomey (R) 50%
Rep. Joe Sestak (D) 46%

Toomey seems to have stymied Sestak's momentum over the last couple of days, and at this point it looks like Toomey's the slight favorite. Also, key for Toomey is that he's finally hit the 50% mark, which he was falling short of before, even when he had a bigger lead over Sestak.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR TOOMEY.

Rasmussen CA-SEN: Boxer By 3

2010-10-30T13:24:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen California Poll conducted 10/27 of 750 LVs:

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 49%
Fmr. HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) 46%

This is the closest we've seen in a while, but most polls seem to be around a 5-6 point lead for Boxer either way. The NRSC continues to sound very optimistic here, more so than the public polling would indicate, but perhaps it's merely an attempt to get the Democrats to spend money here instead of some of the other battlegrounds.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR BOXER.

Rasmussen WA-SEN: Rossi By A Point

2010-10-30T13:21:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Washington Poll conducted 10/26 of 750 LVs:

Fmr. State Sen. Dino Rossi (R) 48%
Sen. Patty Murray (D) 47%

This is the first poll in a long time to actually show a Rossi lead, although Marist and SUSA also agree on a virtual tie here. Rasmussen has polled here 15 times; they've found Murray between 45%-51% and Rossi between 46%-49%.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR MURRAY.

Rasmussen CO-SEN: Buck Up 4

2010-10-30T13:17:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Colorado Poll conducted 10/25 of 750 LVs:

Weld County DA Ken Buck (R) 48%
Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 44%

This is one of the few races that seem like it could decided just how big the GOP's Senate gains will be, but along with the Marist poll it's possible that Buck is creating a little separation here. Close Senate races in competitive states tend to go with the wave, so while this will certainly be close, I still think Buck is a small favorite to win.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR BUCK.

Rasmussen GA-SEN: Isakson By 30

2010-10-30T13:10:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Georgia Poll conducted 10/24 of 500 LVs:

Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) 59%
Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond (D) 29%

Probably overdoing Isakson's lead a little bit, especially in a state that's about 25% black, Thurmond is pretty much guaranteed to clear 40%. Among Independents, Thurmond is barely in the top two, taking 18% while Libertarian Chuck Donovan has 15%.

OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR ISAKSON.

Rasmussen IL-SEN: Kirk By 4

2010-10-30T13:06:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Illinois Poll conducted 10/26 of 750 LVs:

Rep. Mark Kirk (R) 46%
Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42%

The undecided voters are finally starting to make their move here, and it looks like they're generally splitting between the candidate pretty closely. Only 2% aren't sure, and with LeAlan Jones (G) taking 5%, I think 47% or 48% is probably enough to take this.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR KIRK.

Rasmussen WV-SEN: Manchin Retakes The Lead

2010-10-30T13:04:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen West Virginia Poll conducted 10/26 of 750 LVs:

Gov. Joe Manchin (D) 49%
Businessman John Raese (R) 46%

So many Democrats in red states or districts are going down this year, but Manchin has shown how to successfully campaign as a Democrat in a red state. He benefits from never having to actually vote on any controversial legislation this year, of course. However, he's been smart by being extremely aggressive in his opposition to President Obama and much of his legislation, and at the same time he's benefited from Raese's weak campaign.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR MANCHIN.

Rasmussen MD-SEN: Mikulski Well Ahead

2010-10-30T13:00:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Maryland Poll conducted 10/24 of 750 LVs:

Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D) 56%
Queen Anne's County Commissioner Eric Wargotz (R) 38%

No problem for Mikulski as she seeks a 5th term; she has a very solid 59%/39% favorable rating.

OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR MIKULSKI.

Rasmussen WI-SEN: Johnson +7

2010-10-30T12:56:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Wisconsin Poll conducted 10/25 of 750 LVs:

Businessman Ron Johnson (R) 53%
Sen. Russ Feingold (D) 46%

Right in line with all the other polling here which has shown Johnson with a lead in the high single digits, and it looks like Feingold's 18-year Senate career is likely to be over this year.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR JOHNSON.

Rasmussen NV-SEN: Angle With Small Lead

2010-10-30T12:54:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Nevada Poll conducted 10/25 of 750 LVs:

Fmr. Assemblywoman Sharron Angle (R) 49%
Sen. Harry Reid (D) 45%

Mason-Dixon, CNN, and Rasmussen now all have this same 49%-45% lead for Angle, and it increasingly looks like this race is tilting her way. Actually, Reid hasn't polled above 47% since October 11th, and with "None Of The Above" only taking 1% or 2%, Reid's going to need 49% or 50% to win. The early voting numbers have generally looked decent for Reid, but I'm not sure that's enough after the Democrats' phenomenally successful early voting efforts here two years ago.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR ANGLE.

Rasmussen CT-SEN: Blumenthal Has McMahon Down For The Count

2010-10-30T12:37:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Connecticut Poll conducted 10/24 of 750 LVs:

Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) 56%
Businesswoman Linda McMahon (R) 43%

Somehow I managed to resist a wrestling analogy until 3 days before the election, which is really quite an accomplishment.

STRONG ADVANTAGE FOR BLUMENTHAL.

Rasmussen SC-SEN: DeMint In Command

2010-10-30T12:34:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen South Carolina Poll conducted 10/19 of 500 LVs:

Sen. Jim DeMint (R) 58%
Veteran Alvin Greene (D) 21%

DeMint has an excellent 63%/32% favorable rating, while Greene is of course a disaster with an 18%/76% favorable rating.

OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR DeMINT.

Rasmussen IN-SEN: Coats Far Ahead

2010-10-30T12:32:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen Indiana Poll conducted 10/20-10/21 of 500 LVs:

Fmr. Sen. Dan Coats (R) 52%
Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) 34%

President Obama has a 41%/58% approval rating here, which mirrors the topline numbers pretty closely. Looking ahead briefly to 2012, Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) has a staggering 75% approval rating.

OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR COATS.

Marist WA-SEN: It's A Jumpball

2010-10-30T10:28:00.000-04:00

Marist Washington Poll conducted 10/26-10/28 of 638 LVs, pdf here:

Sen. Patty Murray (D) 49%
Fmr. State Sen. Dino Rossi (R) 48%

Very similar in terms of the toplines and the crosstabs as the SUSA poll-both candidates lead 95%-5% among members of their own party, but Rossi has a 9-point lead among Independent voters. Murray has a 25-point lead in King County (Seattle), while Rossi leads in the rest of the state. Also consistent with SUSA, Rossi has a 1-point lead among those who have already voted; I think Rossi needs to have the lead on Election Night, because I think the later ballots will be just a bit more favorable to Murray.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR MURRAY.

Marist CO-SEN: Buck With Slim Lead

2010-10-30T10:24:00.001-04:00

Marist Colorado Poll conducted 10/26-10/28 of 615 LVs, pdf here:

Weld County DA Ken Buck (R) 49%
Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 45%

One gets the sense that this race is reverting back to where it was before Buck's Meet The Press debacle, although his 40%/50% favorable rating still leaves something to be desired. Buck has a 6-point lead among Independents, and with the GOP already ahead by about 50K in returned ballots, it increasingly looks like Buck has the slight edge.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR BUCK.

Marist CO-GOV: Tancredo Within 4

2010-10-30T10:22:00.000-04:00

Marist Colorado Poll conducted 10/26-10/28 of 615 LVs, pdf here:

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) 47%
Fmr. Rep. Tom Tancredo (C) 43%
Businessman Dan Maes (R) 7%

Marist joins the camp of pollsters that show it close here, as Maes' support continues towards zero. Tancredo actually has the lead among Independent voters, but Tancredo to contend with Maes winning 14% of Republicans. And that's why I think Tancredo can't win-so many early votes have already been cast, and my guess is that too many votes have already been cast for Maes that are effectively going to waste.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR HICKENLOOPER.

Marist PA-SEN: Toomey With The Edge

2010-10-30T10:17:00.000-04:00

Marist Pennsylvania Poll conducted 10/26-10/28 of 461 LVs, pdf here:

Fmr. Rep. Pat Toomey (R) 52%
Rep. Joe Sestak (D) 45%

This race is all about President Obama-Sestak leads 89%-8% among those who approve of him, while Toomey leads 89%-10% among those who disapprove. Despite the Democrats' best efforts, it doesn't look like the enthusiasm gap is closing: Toomey leads 61%-37% among those who are "very enthusiastic" about voting, while Sestak leads 62%-29% among those who are "not enthusiastic."

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR TOOMEY.

Marist PA-GOV: Corbett Up By 7

2010-10-30T10:14:00.003-04:00

Marist Pennsylvania Poll conducted 10/26-10/28 of 461 LVs, pdf here:

Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) 51%
Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato (D) 44%

There's only so much Philadelphia can do-Onorato is trampling Corbett there 82%-13%. But only a little over 10% of Pennsylvanians live in Philly, and Corbett is winning in the other 90% of the state. He leads 51%-46% in the Philly suburbs, 59%-38% in NE PA, 56%-39% in the West, and 64%-31% in Central PA.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR CORBETT.

Marist WI-GOV: Walker Keeps The Advantage

2010-10-30T10:09:00.000-04:00

Marist Wisconsin Poll conducted 10/26-10/28 of 491 LVs, pdf here:

Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R) 51%
Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) 44%

Barrett leads 2:1 in the Madison area, but the two candidates about even in the west and in Milwaukee; Walker has overwhelming advantages in Northeastern Wisconsin and especially in the Milwaukee suburbs.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR WALKER.

Marist WI-SEN: Johnson Still In Position To Win

2010-10-30T10:07:00.000-04:00

Marist Wisconsin Poll conducted 10/26-10/28 of 491 LVs, pdf here:

Businessman Ron Johnson (R) 52%
Sen. Russ Feingold (D) 45%

The polling here has been very consistent in finding this type of result, and there's not much reason to think Johnson won't win at this point. Both candidates get almost unanimous support from their own party, but Johnson has a 57%-41% lead among Independent voters.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR JOHNSON.

SUSA OR-GOV: Kitzhaber Jumps Ahead

2010-10-30T08:52:00.000-04:00

SurveyUSA Oregon Poll conducted 10/23-10/28 of 580 LVs:

Fmr. Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) 48%
Fmr. NBA Player Chris Dudley (R) 41%

This poll has gotten a lot of attention because of the disparity between home phone and cell phone users, but even among landline phones, the result is a fairly similar 50%-46%. The real boost for Kitzhaber comes from the partisan breakdown, which gives the Democrats an unlikely 45%-31% advantage (the GOP had a turnout advantage as recently as 2004). If the party crosstabs hold-Dudley win 12% of Democrats and leads by 7 among Independents-this one will be extremely close.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR KITZHABER.

SUSA OR-SEN: Big Lead For Wyden

2010-10-30T08:49:00.000-04:00

SurveyUSA Oregon Poll conducted 10/23-10/28 of 580 LVs:

Sen. Ron Wyden (D) 57%
Law School Professor Jim Huffman (R) 32%

Perhaps overstating Wyden's lead a bit, but he's still in great shape to win a 3rd term. Wyden has a 60%-33% lead among those who have already voted.

OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR WYDEN.