Election Advantage

Texas Primary Results

noreply@blogger.com (Matt) — Fri, 01 Jun 2012 02:25:00 +0000

TX-SEN: This was the biggest contest of the night, with Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst leading Solicitor General Ted Cruz 45%-34%. But the numbers are a bit misleading, as Dewhurst won early voting 48%-30% while that advantage almost evaporated entirely, 42%-39%, on Election Day. Each candidate can argue they have the advantage in the July runoff. Dewhurst obviously starts much closer to 50%, plus supporters of Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert, who finished third, should lean towards Dewhurst. However, Cruz seemed to have the late momentum that could carry over, plus his supporters may be more likely to turn out in a runoff where fewer votes are cast.

TX-14: Ron Paul's open seat should be in the Republican column come November, but they will need a runoff first. State Rep. Randy Weber led 28%-19% over Pearland City Councilwoman Felicia Harris. The winner will take on former Democratic Congressman Nick Lampson, who won 83% of the Democratic vote.

TX-16: Certainly the most surprising result of the night was here, with Rep. Silvestre Reyes (D) falling to former El Paso City Councilman Beto O'Rourke. This district is over 80% Hispanic, and Reyes is in his eighth term, but this goes to show that Hispanics won't necessarily pick a Hispanic candidate. El Paso is solidly Democratic and O'Rourke is likely to win easily in November.

TX-23: This is really the only competitive district in Texas, and Democrats certainly plan on a strong challenge to Rep. Quico Canseco (R). Former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez, who lost to Canseco in 2010, led 46%-41% over state Rep. Pete Gallego; national Democrats prefer Gallego in the runoff.

TX-25: Yet another runoff in the heavily Republican new 25th, where Secretary of State Roger Williams (25%) will take on college professor Wes Riddle (15%).

TX-33: Similar to the 16th, where a heavily Hispanic seat may not elect a Hispanic Congressman. The district has a Hispanic majority, but former State Rep. Domingo Garcia (25%) lagged well behind African-American State Rep. Marc Veasy (37%).

TX-34: This is a district that was drawn to elect a Hispanic as well, and actually is positioned to do so. 44% voted for attorney Filemon Vega, so he'll be a big favorite in the runoff over former congressional aide Denise Saenz Blanchard and her 13%.

TX-36: Finally, the action in this new seat northeast of Houston is on the GOP side, and we'll have yet another runoff. Former Rep. Steve Stockman ran almost dead even with financial adviser Stephen Takich, both claiming about 22% of the vote.

Texas Primary Liveblog

noreply@blogger.com (Matt) — Wed, 30 May 2012 00:10:00 +0000

Texas Primary Liveblog

PPP Missouri Senate: McCaskill In Big Trouble

noreply@blogger.com (Matt) — Wed, 30 May 2012 00:05:00 +0000

PPP Missouri/May 24-27/602 RVs and 430 Republican RVs:

Republican Primary:

Treasurer Sarah Steelman 28%
Businessman John Brunner 25%
Rep. Todd Akin 23%

All three Republican candidates have similar name recognition, run about even in the Republican Primary, and all run essentially even against McCaskill. The sample size may be too small to be meaningful, but there is an interesting tidbit in the crosstabs. The three are tied among Republicans, but Steelman leads 33%-27%-19% among Independents. With no statewide Democratic Primary of consequence, Independents are more likely to vote here and could give Steelman the edge.

For now, the General Election numbers are all about McCaskill, which is good news for the Republicans. Only 40% approve of the job she's doing as Senator, while 50% disapprove. These numbers have McCaskill's campaign in major trouble, and they include a 35%/57% approval rating among Independents. If the eventual Republican nominee runs a credible, they should be the favorite going into November.

SLIGHT DEMOCRATIC.

PPP Michigan: Big Lead For Obama

noreply@blogger.com (Matt) — Tue, 29 May 2012 23:56:00 +0000

PPP Michigan/May 24-27/500 RVs:

Obama 53%
Romney 39%

A very healthy lead in Michigan for President Obama, nearly matching his 17-point win here in 2008. Romney's Michigan roots would seem to give him an inside track at the state, but two data points really should bother him. First, Obama has a 55%-31% lead on who voters believe is better for the auto industry, and voters do not consider Romney a Michigander 65%-24%.

LEAN OBAMA.

Keating Research Colorado: Obama With Small Lead

noreply@blogger.com (Matt) — Tue, 29 May 2012 23:52:00 +0000

Keating Research/May 21-24/601 LVs:

Obama 48%
Romney 44%

This is a Democratic poll, the contact name at the top of the memo (Ethan Axelrod) certainly stands out. This could also explain why the 4-point lead is referred to as "solid." Obama has a whopping 57%-30% lead among Independents, who lean left in Colorado but not by nearly this much. This remains a very critical state, one Romney may well need to win the White House.

LEAN OBAMA.

USC California: Safe Obama

noreply@blogger.com (Matt) — Tue, 29 May 2012 23:47:00 +0000

University of Southern California Poll/May 17-21/1002 RVs:

Obama 56%
Romney 37%

No surprise in safely Democratic California. Obama clobbers Romney 74%-18% among Lations, but he carries white voters as well.

SAFE OBAMA.

Start Your Engines!

noreply@blogger.com (Matt) — Mon, 28 May 2012 23:51:00 +0000

Posting will be all ready to go tomorrow. I'll have updates on any polls and news that come out during the day, and I'll also be liveblogging the Texas Primary tomorrow night.

Presidential Ratinigs Table

noreply@blogger.com (Matt) — Sun, 27 May 2012 14:12:00 +0000

Notes:

1) The Electoral College votes are in parentheses.

2) Blue represents states that voted for Obama in 2008, and red are states that voted for McCain.

Senate Ratings Table

noreply@blogger.com (Matt) — Sun, 27 May 2012 13:30:00 +0000

Notes:

1) * means the seat is open, otherwise the incumbent Senator is running.

2) Blue means a seat currently represented by a Democrat, red is a seat currently held by a Republican.

Governor Ratings Table

noreply@blogger.com (Matt) — Sun, 27 May 2012 13:00:00 +0000

Notes:

1) * means the seat is open, otherwise the incumbent Governor is running.

2) Blue means a seat currently held by a Democrat, red is a seat currently held by a Republican.

West Virginia Governor

noreply@blogger.com (Matt) — Sat, 26 May 2012 02:08:00 +0000

WEST VIRGINIA GOVERNOR(Tomblin-D)

2008 Governor: Manchin 70%-26%.

2011 Governor: Tomblin 50%-47%.

Joe Manchin's election to the Senate in 2010 forced a special election a year later, where interim Governor Earl Ray Tomblin narrowly held off Republican businessman Bill Maloney. Polling is showing a much more comfortable lead this time around for Tomblin, as West Virginia continues to strongly prefer Democrats downballot.

LIKELY DEMOCRATIC.

Washington Governor

noreply@blogger.com (Matt) — Sat, 26 May 2012 02:04:00 +0000

WASHINGTON GOVERNOR(Open, Gregoire-D)

2004 Governor: Gregoire 48.87%-48.87%.

2008 Governor: Gregoire 53%-47%.

Outgoing Democratic Governor narrowly won two terms against Republican Dino Rossi, and both sides are going to new faces this year. Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna is a stronger candidate on paper than Democratic Rep. Jay Inslee, but the Democrats' tendency to win close races here leads me to believe their chances are being underestimated here by most observers.

SLIGHT DEMOCRATIC.

Vermont Governor

noreply@blogger.com (Matt) — Sat, 26 May 2012 01:59:00 +0000

VERMONT GOVERNOR(Shumlin-D)

2004 Governor: Douglas 53%-22%.

2008 Governor: Shumlin 49%-48%.

Shumlin managed to flip this seat into the Democratic column in 2010, staving off a vigorous challenge from Republican Brian Dubie. Shumlin, who had a highly publicized encounter with a bear back in April, has already survived his toughest challenge of the year.

SAFE DEMOCRATIC.

Utah Governor

noreply@blogger.com (Matt) — Sat, 26 May 2012 01:54:00 +0000

UTAH GOVERNOR(Herbert-R)

2008 Governor: Huntsman 78%-20%.

2010 Governor: Herbert 64%-32%.

Herbert, who took over for Jon Huntsman in 2009, should win a full term of his own with no trouble.

SAFE REPUBLICAN.

North Dakota Governor

noreply@blogger.com (Matt) — Sat, 26 May 2012 01:50:00 +0000

NORTH CAROLINA GOVERNOR(Dalrymple-R)

2004 Governor: Hoeven 71%-27%.

2008 Governor: Hoeven 74%-24%.

When popular Governor John Hoeven was elected to the Senate in 2010, Lt. Gov. Jack Dalrymple was elevated to the governorship. He isn't well-proven on his own, but there's no major reason to think he's in trouble against State Senate Minority Leader Ryan Taylor.

LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

North Carolina Governor

noreply@blogger.com (Matt) — Sat, 26 May 2012 01:46:00 +0000

NORTH CAROLINA GOVERNOR(Open, Perdue-D)

2004 Governor: Easley 56%-43%.

2008 Governor: Perdue 50%-47%.

This is the top Republican target this year, and the stars seem to be aligning for them. Former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R) narrowly lost in 2008 to outgoing Democrat Beverly Perdue, who is unpopular enough that she declined to run for a second term. McCrory has a comfortable edge over Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton (D) in early polling.

LEAN REPUBLICAN.

New Hampshire Governor

noreply@blogger.com (Matt) — Sat, 26 May 2012 01:38:00 +0000

NEW HAMPSHIRE GOVERNOR(Open, Lynch-D)

2008 Governor: Lynch 70%-28%.

2010 Governor: Lynch 53%-45%.

A very similar situation to Montana, where there's an open seat race to replace a popular Democrat. Former State Senate Majority Leader Maggie Hassan should be the Demoratic nominee, and she's likely to face Republican Ovide Lamontange, who was barely defeated by Kelly Ayotte in the Republican Senate Primary in 2010.

SLIGHT REPUBLICAN.

Montana Governor

noreply@blogger.com (Matt) — Sat, 26 May 2012 01:33:00 +0000

MONTANA GOVERNOR(Open, Schweitzer-D)

2004 Governor: Schweitzer 50%-46%.

2008 Governor: Schweitzer 65%-33%.

Democrats will have to play some defense here since their popular Governor Brian Schweitzer is term-limited. Open seat Governor races in small states can go in many directions, but at the moment the frontrunners appear to be former Attorney General Steve Bullock (D) and Fmr. Rep. Rick Hill (R).

SLIGHT REPUBLICAN.

Missouri Governor

noreply@blogger.com (Matt) — Sat, 26 May 2012 01:25:00 +0000

MISSOURI GOVERNOR(Nixon-D)

2004 Governor: Blunt 51%-48%.

2008 Governor: Nixon 58%-39%.

Jay Nixon is exactly the right candidate to survive the Republican trend in Missouri. He comes from a law-and-order background as the state's longtime Attorney General, he's a moderate, and he avoids significant missteps. The Republicans will give it a shot with businessman Dave Spence, but it would take a lot of good fortune for Spence to keep it close.

LIKELY DEMOCRATIC.

Indiana Governor

noreply@blogger.com (Matt) — Sat, 26 May 2012 01:19:00 +0000

INDIANA GOVERNOR (Open, Daniels-R)

2004 Governor: Daniels 53%-45%.

2008 Governor: Daniels 58%-40%.

Popular Republican Governor Mitch Daniels is term-limited, but the Republicans look to be in good shape to win the open seat. Republican Congressman Mike Pence has been touted nationally for many years, and he starts as a favorite. The Democrats are not going quietly though, as former State House Speaker John Gregg is the type of moderate Democrat that can win here occasionally.

LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Delaware Governor

noreply@blogger.com (Matt) — Sat, 26 May 2012 01:14:00 +0000

DELAWARE GOVERNOR(Markell-D)

2004 Governor: Minner 51%-46%.

2008 Governor: Markell 68%-32%.

Delaware hasn't elected a Republican Governor since 1988.

SAFE DEMOCRATIC.

Wyoming Senate

noreply@blogger.com (Matt) — Fri, 25 May 2012 02:03:00 +0000

WYOMING SENATE (Barrasso-R)

2006 Senate: Thomas 70%-30%.

2008 Senate: Barrasso 73%-27%.

The Republicans have won at least 70% of the vote in the last five Senate elections here.

SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Wisconsin Senate

noreply@blogger.com (Matt) — Fri, 25 May 2012 01:59:00 +0000

WISCONSIN SENATE (Open, Kohl-D)

2000 Senate: Kohl 62%-35%.

2006 Senate: Kohl 67%-29%.

Herb Kohl's retirement makes this a key Senate race, and there's probably more uncertainty here than anywhere else. The Democratic side is cut and dry, as Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin will be the nominee. Things get much more interesting on the Republican side, where there's a four-way fight between former Gov. Tommy Thompson, former Rep. Mark Neumann, businessman Eric Hovde, and State Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald. Really Thompson is the wild card: he is the most well-known candidate and polls best against Baldwin. But the last time he was elected Governor was way back in 1998, so he feels a bit like old news, and Republicans here may opt for a more conservative, fresher option. It's not entirely clear at this point which option is best in the long run, but Thompson is probably the surest bet.

SLIGHT DEMOCRATIC.

West Virginia Senate

noreply@blogger.com (Matt) — Fri, 25 May 2012 01:51:00 +0000

WEST VIRGINIA SENATE (Manchin-D)

2006 Senate: Byrd 64%-34%.

2010 Senate: Manchin 53%-43%.

After longtime Senator Robert Byrd's death in 2010, popular Governor Joe Manchin ran in his place but was faced with the problem of President Obama's deep unpopularity. His solution was to literally shoot up a copy of the Cap and Trade bill in a famous ad, and he wound up defeating Republican businessman John Raese comfortably. Raese is back for a rematch, but he's already ran unsuccessfully twice before and it doesn't look like the third term will be the charm.

LIKELY DEMOCRATIC.

Washington Senate

noreply@blogger.com (Matt) — Fri, 25 May 2012 01:46:00 +0000

WASHINGTON SENATE (Cantwell-D)

2000 Senate: Cantwell 48.7%-48.6%.

2006 Senate: Cantwell 57%-40%.

Few worries for Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell in this solidly Democratic state, and she starts well ahead of Republican State Sen. Michael Baumgartner.

LIKELY DEMOCRATIC.