Let's start with the state of play in the House: the Democrats have a 255-178 margin in the House, with two seats vacant-one previously held by a Democrat and one by a Republican, so the GOP needs to gain a net of 39 seats to reclaim control of the House. It seems like a foregone conclusion that they'll do just that-the only question is exactly how many seats they'll win. With polls showing the GOP leading by 5-10 points in the generic ballot, it's very possible that the GOP will exceed the net of 53 seats they won in 1994. Deep breath, here's how they look (any not listed here are predicted to stay with the current party):
AL-02 (Southeast-Dothan, part of Montgomery): Rep. Bobby Bright (D) has run well in this heavily Republican CD, but I think he'll fall just short against Montgomery County Councilwoman Martha Roby (R). Prediction: Roby wins (Switch).
AL-05 (North-Huntsville): After beating Democrat-turned-Republican Parker Griffith in the GOP Primary, Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks is favored to be the first Republican elected here since the 1860s. Prediction: Brooks wins.
AK-AL (All Of Alaska): Rep. Don Young (R) had a tough race in 2008, but accusations of corruption have faded since then, and it looks like he'll easily beat State Rep. Harry Crawford (D). Prediction: Young wins.
AZ-01 (Northeast-Flagstaff, Prescott, Winslow): Freshman Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) is in for a very tough fight in this competitive but GOP-leaning district. Polls show her trailing dentist Paul Gosar, although she may be making up some ground in the last week or two. Prediction: Gosar wins (Switch)
AZ-03 (Northern Phoenix Suburbs): This should be a piece of cake for the GOP to hold after the retirement of Rep. John Shadegg. However, attorney Ben Quayle, the son of the former VP, is a weak candidate and attorney Jon Hulburd (D) is quite competitive. Prediction: Quyale wins.
AZ-05 (Tempe, Scottsdale): Two-term Democratic Rep. Harry Mitchell is an iconic former mayor of Tempe. But the GOP tide here could take him out, and the advantage seems to be with Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert (R). Prediction: Schweikert wins (Switch)
AZ-07 (Southwest-Yuma, part of Tuscon): This Hispanic-majority district was drawn to be safely Democratic, but Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) got himself in major trouble when he suggested boycotting his own state after the immigration bill passed. 28-year-old rocket scientist Ruth McClung (R) has made this real race, but I think Grijalva hangs on. Prediction: Grijalva wins.
AZ-08 (Southeast-Sierra Vista, part of Tuscon): This is a marginally Republican district, but Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) is a very strong and well-funded incumbent. Tea Party favorite Jesse Kelly, an Iraq War veteran, has a real chance, but I think he comes up a bit short. Prediction: Giffords wins.
AR-01 (Northeast-Jonesboro, West Memphis): Initially this looked like a very tough hold for the Democrats after Rep. Marion Berry (D) announced his retirement. His former Chief Of Staff, Chad Causey, has closed the gap between him and Republican farm broadcaster Rick Crawford, but I don't think it will be enough. Prediction: Crawford wins. (Switch)
AR-02 (Central-Little Rock): This is one of the most likely GOP pickup opportunities-former US Attorney Tim Griffin (R) is a safe bet to beat Democratic State Sen. Joyce Elliot. Prediction: Griffin wins. (Switch)
CA-03 (Eastern Sacramento Suburbs): Rep. Dan Lungren (R) only won by 5 points in 2008, and Dr. Ami Bera (D) has raised a lot of money. But it doesn't look like it will be enough in this strongly Republican district. Prediction: Lungren wins.
CA-11 (East Bay-Stockton): This is a bellwether seat in the northern part of the Central Valley, and Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) has a very tough challenger on his hands in attorney David Harmer (R). This district usually follows the national trends, so I'll give the slight edge to Harmer. Prediction: Harmer wins. (Switch)
CA-18 (Central Valley-Modesto, Stockton, Merced): This district is potentially competitive and the Central Valley is really hurting economically. However, Rep. Dennis Cardoza (D) is popular and I think he beats Republican farmer Mike Berryhill. Prediction: Cardoza wins.
CA-20: (Southern Central Valley-parts of Fresno and Bakersfield) This district is in even worse shape than the 18th, and Democratic Rep. Jim Costa only won 53%-47% when he was first elected in 2004. Polling leans towards Republican rancher Andy Vidak, and Democratic spending here indicates they're clearly concerned. Prediction: Vidak wins. (Switch)
CA-44 (Riverside, Corona, San Clemente): Republican Rep. Ken Calvert barely defeated Corona-Norco School Board President Bill Hedrick in 2008, 51%-49%. Calvert looks to be in a better position with a much more favorable climate this year. Prediction: Calvert wins.
CA-45 (Palm Springs): This Inland Empire district is somewhat marginal, and Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet (D) is a strong candidate. However, Rep. Mary Bono Mack, who succeeded her late husband Sonny Bono in 1998, has a moderate voting record that matches this district well; she should win pretty easily. Prediction: Mack wins.
CA-47 (Anaheim, Santa Ana): Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D) has clearly been caught off-guard by the strong challenge from Assemblyman Van Tran (R). However, based on what's going on in the statewide races, it looks like Hispanic turnout is returning to respectable levels. Prediction: Sanchez wins.
CO-03 (West-Grand Junction, Pueblo): Democratic Rep. John Salazar's district is Republican-leaning, and with Republicans making a comeback here this year, he's in big trouble. The only public polling indicates a small lead for State Rep. Scott Tipton (R), with Salazar far under 50%. Prediction: Tipton wins. (Switch)
CO-04 (East-Fort Collins-Greeley): This is one seat the GOP pretty much already considers in the bag, as Democratic Rep. Betsy Markey has a very liberal voting record in this conservative district. State Rep. Cory Gardner (R) is clearly in command here. Prediction: Gardner wins. (Switch)
CO-07 (Western Denver Suburbs-Aurora): Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D) faces a spirited challenge from Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier (R) in this very competitive district in Denver's inner suburbs. It looks like Perlmutter will hang on, but it's close. Prediction: Perlmutter wins.
CT-04 (Southwest-Bridgeport, Stamford, Greenwich): Rep. Jim Himes (D) is in very tough shape here, evidenced by President Obama's trip to Bridgeport this weekend. The advantage seems to be with Republican State Sen. Dan Debicella; Himes needs big minority turnout to win. Prediction: Debicella wins (Switch)
CT-05 (Northwest-Waterbury, Danbury, New Britain): Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy has been considered a rising star-first elected to Congress in 2006 at age 33, he's won both his term by double digit margins. With Republicans surging in Connecticut, State Sen. Sam Caliguri (R) looks like he's got the late momentum. Prediction: Caliguri wins. (Switch)
DE-AL (All of Delaware): Rep. Mike Castle's Primary loss cost the GOP a Senate seat, but don't forget about his open House seat, which is certain to flip into the Democratic column. Lt. Gov. John Carney (D) lost the 2008 Primary for Governor by a whisker, but now he's got a House seat as a consolation prize. Prediction: Carney wins. (Switch)
FL-02 (North-Tallahassee, Panama City): Rep. Allen Boyd (D) barely survived a Primary challenge from State Sen. Al Lawson, 51%-49%. He's not going to survive the General Election though; polling shows him way behind Republican Steve Southerland, who owns a chain of funeral homes. Prediction: Southerland wins (Switch)
FL-08 (Suburban Orlando): Perhaps the best indication of where this race is at is the fact that Rep. Alan Grayson (D) has been uncharacteristically quiet for the last few weeks. It's GOP State Sen Daniel Webster's race to lose. Prediction: Webster wins. (Switch)
FL-10 (Northern St. Petersburg suburbs): Early on it looked like Rep. Bill Young, the most senior Republican in the House, could be vulnerable to State Sen. Charlie Justice (D). But Justice raised very little money, and Young is on his way to a 21st term. Prediction: Young wins.
FL-12 (Central-Lakeland, Bradenton): The open seat of Rep. Adam Putnam (R) has been a thorn in the side for the GOP, which wasn't expected in this comfortably Republican district. Fmr. State Rep. Dennis Ross (R) is favored to beat Polk County Supervisor of Election Lori Edwards (D), but Tea Party candidate Randy Wilkinson could make it dicey. Prediction: Ross wins.
FL-22 (Boca Raton, West Palm Beach): This race has been a barnburner between Rep. Ron Klein (D) and retired Army officer Allen West; both candidates have raised and spent many millions. West's association with a biker gang has come up as an issue at the tail end of the campaign, but I'm not sure it will be enough to matter. Prediction: West wins. (Switch)
FL-24 (Eastern Orlando Suburbs): Rep. Suzanne Kosmas was one of the handful of Democrats who flip-flopped on HCR, and it looks like it will cost her. All indications are that Rep. Sandy Adams (R) is comfortably ahead. Prediction: Adams wins. (Switch)
FL-25 (Southern Miami suburbs-Homestead): Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) is running for re-election in the next-door 21st District, and this open seat is very competitive. State Rep. David Rivera appears to have a slight edge over Democrat Joe Garcia, but once again a Tea Party candidate could play spoiler. Prediction: Rivera wins.
GA-02 (Southwest-Albany, Columbus, Valdosta): Rep. Sanford Bishop (D) has won by huge margins in the past, but he has a strong challenger in State Rep. Mike Keown and he's had some ethical problems. I expect this to be very close, with black turnout making the difference. Prediction: Keown wins. (Switch)
GA-08 (Central-Macon): It looks like this will finally be the year where the GOP unseats Democratic Congressman Jim Marshall, as State Rep. Austin Scott is polling comfortably ahead. Prediction: Scott wins. (Switch)
HI-01 (Honolulu): Rep. Charles Djou (R) just won this seat in a Special Election in May, and polls have him neck-and-neck with State Senate President Collen Hannabusa. This could go either way, but for now I give Hannabusa just a slight advantage. Prediction: Hannabusa wins. (Switch)
ID-01 (West-Nampa, Couer D'Alene, part of Boise): This district is extremely Republican, but Rep. Walt Minnick is very conservative and Republicans have never been fond of State Rep. Raul Labrador (R). I could see an upset here, although the GOP needs to hope that 3rd party candidates don't take too many votes from Labrador. Prediction: Labrador wins (Switch)
IL-10 (Northern Chicago Suburbs-Glenview, Waukegan): Rep. Mark Kirk (R) may well become the next Senator from Illinois, but his House seat is another story. Marketing executive Dan Seals (D) came up short against Kirk in 2006 and 2008, but this year he looks to have the advantage over GOP businessman Dan Seals. Prediction: Seals wins (Switch)
IL-11 (Southern Chicago Suburbs-Joliet, Kankakee): Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D) was swept into office on President Obama's popularity two years ago, but this year the shoe is on the other foot. The Republicans are enamored with Iraq War Vet Adam Kinzinger, and polls show that he has this race well in hand. Prediction: Kinzinger wins (Switch)
IL-14 (Aurora): Democratic Rep. Bill Foster's win in a 2008 Special Election to replace former Speaker Dennis Hastert was an early indication of the impending doom for the GOP in the House. But this district clearly leans GOP in a year like this, and State Sen. Randy Hultgren (R) may have the edge. Prediction: Hultgren wins (Switch)
IL-17 (West-Rock Island, Moline, part of Springfield): This district was designed to protect Democratic incumbents, but it's not that Democratic, and Rep. Phil Hare (D) has run a very sloppy campaign. The polling looks favorable for Republican Bobby Schilling, who owns a chain of pizzerias. Prediction: Schilling wins (Switch)
IN-02 (Northcentral-South Bend, Elkhart): Rep. Joe Donnelly (D) has aggressively tried to distance himself from President Obama, but State Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) is looking to take advanage of the GOP resurgence in the state. This will be an early bellwether for whether the GOP makes 1994-type gains or something more. Prediction: Donnelly wins.
IN-08 (Southwest-Evansville): Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) is trailing badly in his Senate race, and his House seat is a lost cause as well. Heart surgeon Larry Buschon (R) has righted the ship after narrowly getting through a weak Primary field, and he's heavily favored over State Rep. Trent Van Haaften (D). Prediction: Buschon wins (Switch)
IN-09 (Southeast-Bloomington, Clarksville): Another early bellwether since polls close here at 6:00 E-the race between Rep. Baron Hill (D) and attorney Todd Young (R) is close, with turnout at IU potentially making the difference. Prediction: Young wins (Switch)
IA-02 (Southeast-Iowa City, Cedar Rapids): No one expected Rep. Dave Loebsack (D) to win in 2006, but he rode the Democratic wave to victory. This year, ophthalmologist Marinette Miller-Meeks is sneaking up on him, but I think this district just a bit too Democratic for her to win. Prediction: Loebsack wins.
IA-03 (Central-Des Moines): Rep. Leonard Boswell (D) should be in huge trouble this year, but it looks like the personal problems of State Sen. Brad Zaun (R) will allow him to survive. Prediction: Boswell wins.
KS-03 (KC Suburbs-Olathe, Lenexa, Overland Park): Rep. Dennis Moore (D) is retiring from this Republican-leaning district, and his wife Stephene is running to succeed him. The GOP is dominating at the top of the ticket, though, and State Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) is a solid candidate. Prediction: Yoder wins (Switch)
KS-04 (Wichita): Businessman Mike Pompeo (R) is a weak candidate, but this district is much too Republican for him to lose to well-funded State Rep. Raj Goyle (D). Prediction: Pompeo wins.
KY-03 (Louisville): Rep. John Yarmuth (D) looks to have the edge going into Election Day, although some polls have suggested pilot Todd Lally (R) has a shot. Prediction: Yarmuth wins.
KY-06 (Central-Lexington, Frankfort): Another early bellwether-as Rep. Ben Chandler (D) is a moderate Democrat who has won by big margins in the past. Polling, however, shows attorney Andy Barr closing the gap-quickly. Prediction: Barr wins (Switch)
LA-02 (New Orleans): Rep. Joseph Cao (R) has held on a lot longer than many expected him to in this 75% Obama district. But the advantage is clearly with State Rep. Cedric Richmond in a district where well over half the residents are African-American. Prediction: Richmond wins (Switch)
LA-03 (South-New Iberia, Houma): The GOP and the Democrats are going to exchange the 2nd District for the 3rd, as attorney Jeff Landry is far ahead of fellow attorney Ravi Sangisetty. Prediction: Landry wins (Switch)
ME-01 (South-Portland, Augusta): The GOP is making a late charge in some of these New England seats, and some polls indicate that Rep. Chellie Pingree (D) could fall to businessman Dean Scontras. If she does, it will mean a House wipeout. Prediction: Pingree wins.
ME-02 (North-Portland, Lewiston, Caribou): A very similar story to the 1st, although this district is more Republican and the incumbent, Rep. Mike Michaud, is a bit stronger. Businessman Jason Levesque (R) has a shot, but it's tough to pick against Michaud, who's won in landslides since 2004. Prediction: Michaud wins.
MD-01 (East-Perry Hall, Severna Park, Salisbury): Rep. Frank Kratovil (D) is trying to hold on in this heavily Republican district against State Sen. Andy Harris (R), who he narrowly defeated in 2008. It looks like this year will be a different story. Prediction: Harris wins (Switch)
MA-04: (Western Boston Suburbs-Brookline, Newton, New Bedford) The Republicans would love to knock off Democratic Rep. Barney Frank, the outspoken chair of the House Financial Services Committee. It looks like management consultant Sean Bieat won't quite there, but it's pretty close. Prediction: Frank wins.
MA-10 (South Shore-Quincy, Weymouth, Hyannis): The open seat race between Republican Jeff Perry and Democrat William Keating is coming down to the wire. This is one of the more Republican-friendly parts of the state, and Scott Brown's victory seems to have awakened the Republicans here a bit. Prediction: Perry wins (Switch)
MI-01 (North-Sault Ste. Marie, Marquette, Alpena): This is the district held by Democrat Bart Stupak, who famously caved on his abortion-based opposition to HCR. He's retring, and Dr. Dan Benishek (R) is polling narrowly ahead of Democratic State Rep. Gary McDowell (D). Prediction: Benishek wins (Switch)
MI-07 (Southcentral-Battle Creek, Jackson, Waverly): Democrat Mark Schauer and Republican Tim Walberg faced off in 2008, with Schauer winning 49%-46%. Walberg should easily be able to turn that around with such a favorable climate, but he keeps getting in his own way. Prediction: Walberg wins (Switch)
MI-09 (Northern Detroit Suburbs-Pontiac, Troy, Waterford Township): Rep. Gary Peters (D) has had some ethical issues down here at the end, and Fmr. State Rep. Andrew "Rocky" Raczowski may benefit. Prediction: Raczowski wins (Switch)
MI-11 (Western Detroit Suburbs-Novi, Westland, Livonia): This is a potentially competitive district, but Rep. Thad McCotter looks ready to rebound after winning only 51% of the vote in 2008. Prediction: McCotter wins.
MN-01 (South-Rochester, Mankato): Rep. Tim Walz (D) very nearly got caught off-guard by Republican Randy Demmer in this marginal district. But he appears to have righted the ship at the last moment, and appears headed for a 3rd term. Prediction: Walz wins.
MN-06 (Northern Twin Cities Suburbs): You either love or hate outspoken Rep. Michelle Bachmann (R), and while State Sen. Tarryl Clark (D) is a good candidate, this district is too Republican for her to win. Prediction: Bachmann wins.
MN-08 (Northeast-Duluth, Brainerd): This district has been held by Democrat James Oberstar since 1974, and by the Democrats since 1946. Polls however show him neck-and-neck with Republican pilot Chip Cravaack, and this would be a huge upset if Cravaack pulls it out. Prediction: Oberstar wins.
MS-01 (North-Tupelo, Southaven): Democratic Rep. Travis Childers is lagging consistently behind State Sen. Alan Nunelee (R) in this heavily Republican district. Prediction: Nunelee wins. (Switch)
MS-04 (South-Gulfport, Pascagoula, Biloxi): Democratic Rep. Gene Taylor is a very conservative Democrat representing a very conservative district, and he's won by huge margins in the past. Taylor seems to have taken his race for granted, and that could cost him against State Rep. Steve Palazzo. Prediction: Palazo wins. (Switch)
MO-04 (West-Jefferson City): Rep. Ike Skelton (D) has held this district for a long time, and this is a very Republican district. It looks like Skelton could hang on against former State Rep. Vicky Hartzler, but it's tight. Prediction: Skelton wins.
NE-02 (Omaha, Bellevue): Rep. Lee Terry (R) only won 52%-48% in 2008 and he has a tough challenger in State Sen. Tom White (D), but this is just a bad climate for White to try and pull it out. Prediction: Terry wins.
NV-03 (Las Vegas suburbs): Polling here shows former State Sen. Joe Heck (R) pulling away from freshman Rep. Dina Titus, and it's tough not to pick him. Prediction: Heck wins. (Switch)
NH-01 (East-Portsmouth, part of Manchester): Polling here looks good for Former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, and it looks like he'll beat Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D). Prediction: Guinta wins (Switch)
NH-02 (West-Nashua, part of Manchester): Former GOP Rep. Charlie Bass is trying to reclaim the seat he held from 1995-2007, but he looks to have withered away his early advantage over Democrat Ann McLane Kuster. Prediction: Kuster wins.
NJ-03 (Cherry Hill, Burlington, Toms River): A very marginal district, and Democratic Rep. John Adler's attempts to get a Tea Party candidate on the ballot could backfire and work in favor of former NFL Player Jon Runyan. Prediction: Runyan wins (Switch)
NJ-06 (Asbury Park, Edison, Plainfield): Democratic Rep. Frank Pallone's district is usually Democratic, and while Chris Christie won here in 2009, Pallone's huge cash advantage is likely to make the difference. Prediction: Pallone wins.
NJ-12 (Central-Trenton, Ewing, Middletown): This is a very polarized district, so while the final result between Rep. Rush Holt (D) and businessman Scott Siprelle (R) could look close, I doubt Holt will lose. Prediction: Holt wins.
NM-01 (Albuquerque): Polling indicates a late surge for businessman Jon Barela, who is getting help in his race from Susanna Martinez's strength at the top of the ticket. Democratic Rep. Martin Henrich is right there, but he's just a very slight underdog. Prediction: Barela wins. (Switch)
NM-02 (South-Las Cruces, Roswell): A close race between Rep. Harry Teague (D) and former Rep. Steve Pearce (R) is on track, but the district's Republican lean looks like it will carry Pearce. Prediction: Pearce wins. (Switch)
NY-01 (Eastern Long Island): This is a competitive district, and Rep. Tim Bishop (D) has never won by big margins. Polling indicates that businessman Randy Altschuler (R) is lagging a bit behind, but it's pretty close. Prediction: Bishop wins.
NY-19 (Peeksill, Beacon, Port Jervis): Polling indicates a tight race between ophthalmologist Nan Hayworth (R) and Rep. John Hall (D) is very close. This marginal district should tilt GOP this year, but it could go either way. Prediction: Hayworth wins (Switch)
NY-20 (Hudson Valley-Poughkeepsie, Saratoga Springs, Glens Falls): Rep. Scott Murphy (D) barely won here in a Special Election last year, and he's seen his big early lead disappear against Republican Chris Gibson. Prediction: Gibson wins (Switch)
NY-23 (North-Oswego, Plattsburgh, Watertown): Rep. Bill Owens (D) was helped in last year's Special election by having a Republican and a Conservative on the ballot, and that may happen again this year. Even though Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman has dropped out and endorsed attorney Matt Doheny (R), polls show Hoffman still getting significant support. Prediction: Owens wins.
NY-24 (Central-Utica): Rep. Mike Arcuri (D) got caught napping in 2008 and barely beat businessman Richard Hanna, 52%-48%. This year it looks like he's righted the ship, although Hanna is running again and can't be counted out. Prediction: Arcuri wins.
NY-25 (Syracuse): Republican attorney Ann Marie Buerkle is a good candidate, but this district may be too Democratic for her to beat Democrat Dan Maffei. Prediction: Maffei wins.
NY-29 (West-Elmira, Corning): Democratic Rep. Eric Massa resigned earlier this year, and Corning Mayor Tom Reed (R) is well ahead of Democrat Matthew Zelller. Prediction: Reed wins (Switch)
NC-02 (Central-parts of Raleigh and Fayetteville): Democratic Rep. Bob Etheridge is polling very competitively with nurse Renee Ellmers, but it looks like it'll be close. Prediction: Etheridge wins.
NC-07 (Southeast-Wilmington): Democratic Rep. Mike McIntyre has won by huge margins in the past, but it looks like police officer Ilario Pantano could be primed for an upset in this GOP-leaning district. Prediction: Pantano wins (Switch)
NC-08 (South-parts of Charlotte and Fayetteville): Democrat Larry Kissell won here in 2008 as part of the Democratic wave, and now the tide could sweep him back out. Former sportscaster Harold Johnson isn't a top-flight candidate, but he may not have to be. Prediction: Johnson wins (Switch)
NC-11 (West-Asheville): Heath Shuler was a bust for the Washington Redskins in the NFL, but as a politician he's found his niche as a conservative Democrat representing this somewhat Republican district. Businessman Jeff Miller (R) has a shot, but it looks like he'll come up short. Prediction: Shuler wins.
ND-AL (All of North Dakota): State Rep. Rick Berg (R) has run a strong campaign and is ahead in his quest to unseat 9-term Democrat Earl Pomeroy. Prediction: Berg wins. (Switch)
OH-01 (Cincinnati): Democratic Rep. Steve Driehaus was always going to need high black turnout to survive here, and it doesn't look like it's coming, much to the advantage of Republican Steve Chabot. Prediction: Chabot wins. (Switch)
OH-02 (Eastern Cincinnati Suburbs): There's a reason why I haven't taken this off my competitive House race list yet despite the district's heavy GOP tilt. Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) felt it incumbent upon herself to talk to elementary school students about abortion; it looks like Schmidt will win anyway. Prediction: Schmidt wins.
OH-06 (Southeast-Athens, Marietta, Steubenville): This is a very rural, marginal district, and Democratic Rep. Charlie Wilson's personal issues look like they'll cost him the seat. Republican businessman Bill Johnson looks like he has the edge. Prediction: Johnson wins. (Switch)
OH-12 (Part of Columbus and Northern Suburbs): This is a marginal district and the Democrats ran a good candidate in Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks. However, the GOP tide should pretty much insulate Republican incumbent Pat Tiberi. Prediction: Tiberi wins.
OH-13 (Akron, Lorain): It looked like car dealer Tom Ganley (R) could make this a real race against Democratic incumbent Betty Sutton, but accusations of sexual harassment have pretty much doomed Ganley's campaign. Prediction: Sutton wins.
OH-15 (Part of Columbus and Western Suburbs): Even with the Democratic tide of 2008, Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy barely edged out Republican Steve Stivers, and this year it looks like Stivers has the clear advantage. Prediction: Stivers wins (Switch)
OH-16 (Canton, Wooster): This is one of the closest House races out there, as both Rep. John Boccieri (D) and businessman Jim Renacci (R) have a shot. This is a fairly Republican district, and I give Renacci a tiny edge. Prediction: Renacci wins (Switch)
OH-18 (Eastcentral-Zanesville, New Philadelphia): Democratic Rep. Zach Space has a strongly GOP district to try and contend with, and State Sen. Bob Gibbs may be just strong enough to knock him off. Prediction: Gibbs wins (Switch)
OR-05 (Salem, Covallis, Lake Oswego): State Rep. Scott Bruun is a strong Republican candidate, and it looks like the race between him and Democratic incumbent Kurt Schrader could go either way. Prediction: Bruun wins. (Switch)
PA-03 (Northwest-Erie): Rep. Kathy Dahlemper (D) has been way behind Republican car dealer Mike Kelly for months-this one's over. Prediction: Kelly wins. (Switch)
PA-04 (Northern Pittsburgh suburbs): Democratic Rep. Jason Altmire has done everything he can to show off his moderate credentials,and it may be just enough. Attorney Keith Rothfus (R) has a chance, but it would be a pretty big upset if he won. Prediction: Altmire wins.
PA-06 (Western Philadelphia suburbs): Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) has won 4 terms with either 51% or 52% of the vote each time, and with a more favorable climate he may do a few points better this year. Prediction: Gerlach wins.
PA-07 (Southwest Philadelphia suburbs): Democrat Joe Sestak's open seat is very close between former US Attorney Pat Meehan (R) and State Rep. Bryan Lentz (D), but in this year close open seats could go the GOP's way. Prediction: Meehan wins (Switch)
PA-08 (Northern Philadelphia suburbs): Even in the Democratic wave year of 2006, Democrat Patrick Murphy beat Republican Mike Fitzpatrick by only about 1500 votes-it's tough not to think Fitzpatrick could turn that around this year. Prediction: Fitzpatrick wins. (Switch)
PA-10: (Northeast-Williamsport) I don't think there's any doubt that Democratic Rep. Chris Carney is a better candidate than former US Attorney Tom Marino (R), but this district may be too Republican for it to matter. Prediction: Marino wins (Switch)
PA-11: (Scranton, Wilkes-Barre) In 2008, Democratic Rep. Paul Kanjorski staged a furious comeback against Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta (R), and history looks like it's repeating itself. Prediction: Kanjorski wins.
PA-12: (Southwest-Johnstown) Democrat Mark Critz won the Special Election back in May by a surprisingly large margin over Republican Tim Burns to replace Jack Murtha. Critz looks like he's better position now than he was in May. Prediction: Critz wins.
PA-15: (Allentown, Bethlehem) This is one of the few GOP seats they have to be concerned about holding, but it looks like Rep. Charlie Dent (R) should hold off Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan (D). Prediction: Dent wins.
PA-17: (Harrisburg, part of Reading) This is a mostly conservative district, while Democratic Rep. Tim Holden has a moderate voting record that fits the district reasonably well. State Sen. Dave Argall (R) has disappointed as a candidate, and Holden looks likely to win. Prediction: Holden wins.
RI-01 (Pawtucket, part of Providence): State Rep. John Loughlin (R) is surprisingly competitive with Providence Mayor Dave Cicilline in this heavily Democratic district, but I think he'll come up a bit short. Prediction: Cicilline wins.
SC-05 (North-Rock Hill, Lancaster, Darlington): Longtime Democrat John Spratt is clearly vulnerable, and State Sen. Mick Mulvaney was well ahead in the only public poll we saw. Prediction: Mulvaney wins. (Switch)
SD-AL (All Of South Dakota): Polls show Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) unable to get above 45%, and it looks like State Rep. Krist Noem (R) is in good shape. Prediction: Noem wins. (Switch)
TN-04 (Central-Manchester, Columbia): The Democrats attempted to localize this race by bringing up the divorce records of physician Scott DesJarlais (R), but it may end up backfiring on Rep. Lincoln Davis (D) in this heavily Republican district. Prediction: DesJarlais wins. (Switch)
TN-06 (Gallatin, Murfreesboro): This may be the most likely GOP pickup-State Sen. Diane Black is certain to succeed retiring Democrat Bart Gordon. Prediction: Black wins. (Switch)
TN-08 (West-Jackson, part of Clarksville): Ditto for the 8th District, where Republican farmer Stephen Fincher should easily take over for retiring Democrat John Tanner. Prediction: Fincher wins (Switch)
TX-17 (Central-Waco, College Station): Rep. Chet Edwards' ability to survive in this heavily Republican district is remarkable, but it looks like this will finally be the year where he falls; businessman Bill Flores is well ahead. Prediction: Flores wins (Switch)
TX-23 (Part Of San Antonio, Del Rio): This Hispanic-majority district is quite competitive, and Rep. Ciro Rodriguez is locked in a very competitive contest with businessman Quico Canseco-he needs big Hispanic turnout to pull this out. Prediction: Canseco wins. (Switch)
UT-02 (Part of Salt Lake City, St. George): Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson (D) has largely avoided the wave that's gone after so many Democrats this year, but his district's a bit too Republican for him to be completely comfortable. Prediction: Matheson wins.
VA-02 (Virginia Beach): Rep. Glenn Nye (D) has tried to distance himself from the President as much as possible, but he may have wound up succeeding only in depressing turnout among his base. Car dealer Scott Rigell (R) is the clear favorite. Prediction: Rigell wins. (Switch)
VA-05 (Southside-Bedford, Danville, Charlottesville): President Obama may be an asset in the 7% of the district that includes Charlottesville, but not so much in the other 93%. Rep. Tom Periello (D) is in bad shape against Republican State Sen. Robert Hurt. Prediction: Hurt wins. (Switch)
VA-09 (Southwest-Blacksburg, Bristol, Wise): The momentum is clearly with Republican Morgan Griffith, and the race between him and longtime Democratic incumbent Rick Boucher could go either way. Prediction: Boucher wins.
VA-11 (Southern DC Suburbs-Springfield, Mount Vernon, Dumfries): The DCCC is clearly concerned here, as they poured in some $1M last week to try and protect Rep. Gerry Conolly (D). Connolly beat Republican businessman Keith Fimian by 12 points in 2008, and while he may survive it's going to be much closer this year. Prediction: Connolly wins.
WA-02 (Northwest-Bellingham): It looks like Democrat Rick Larsen is barely ahead of Republican John Koster; Larsen narrowly won they squared off in 2000 and it could be similar this year. Prediction: Larsen wins.
WA-03 (Southwest-Vancouver): If GOP State Rep. Jaime Herrera wins, as she should, look for the GOP to tout the 31-year-old as a rising star. Prediction: Herrera wins. (Switch)
WA-08 (Eastside-Bellevue, Mercer Island): It's never easy for Republican Dave Reichert in this very marginal district, but after surviving 2006 and 2008 it looks like he'll do so again this year. Prediction: Reichert wins.
WA-09 (Southern Seattle suburbs-Auburn, Kent, part of Tacoma): This district's too marginal to be ignored entirely, but bets here should be placed with Democratic incumbent Adam Smith. Prediction: Smith wins.
WV-01 (North-Morgantown, Wheeling, Parkersburg): With Joe Manchin's fortunes turning in the Senate race, it could help Democrat Mike Olivero survive against Republican David McKinley. Prediction: Olivero wins.
WI-03 (Southwest-La Crosse, Eau Claire): This is a tough race to call because of the strength of the GOP ticket here, but for now Rep. Ron Kind (D) has a slight advantage over State Rep. Dan Kapanke (R). Prediction: Kind wins.
WI-07 (Northwest-Stevens Point, River Falls, Wausau): A marginal district to be sure, but this year the advantage is with the Republicans in Wisconsin, and Ashland County DA Sean Duffy (R) looks like a winner. Prediction: Duffy wins. (Switch)
WI-08 (Northeast-Green Bay, Appleton): Rep. Steve Kagen (D) didn't won by much in 2006 or 2008, and that spells trouble for him against Republican roofing contractor Reid Ribble (R). Prediction: Ribble wins. (Switch).
That is a lot to count, but if I counted them right, the Democrats will flip 4 seats while the Republicans will flip 66 seats, which would result in a net GOP gain of 62 seats. Whew.
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