Election Advantage Final Predictions: Senate

Let's take a step back here for a minute-when the cycle started, the Democrats had a 60-40 majority in the Senate.  And with open GOP seats in Ohio, Kentucky, Florida, New Hampshire, and Missouri, the only question was how many seats the Democrats would add to their majority.  But things have done a complete 180 in the last two years, and now the Democrats are struggling just to keep control of the chamber.  A GOP gain is certain, large Republican gains are likely, and a takeover of the Senate is possible.  At this point, it looks like the Democrats keep the Senate by a seat or two, but it's going to be a nailbiter, and we probably won't know for sure until later this week.

Alabama: Sen. Richard Shelby (R) will easily defeat attorney William Barnes in this heavily Republican state. Prediction: Shelby 64%-35%.

Alaska: This might be the most unpredictable race of the night with Attorney Joe Miller (R), Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams (D), and Sen. Lisa Murkowski, running as a Write-In, all vying for the top spot.  Predicting this race is virtually impossible, but Murkowski's high name ID and the GOP's tendency to underpoll here give some clues.  Prediction: Miller 38%, Murkowski 34%, McAdams 26%.

Arizona: Two years ago, John McCain was on the wrong end of things, but he's got it turned around this year.  Polls give him a solid lead over Tuscon City Councilman Rodney Glassman (D).  Prediction: McCain 56%-36%.

Arkansas: Sen. Blanche Lincoln has really been doomed ever since she voted for HCR, and Rep. John Boozman (R) is in a great position to capitalize on the state's dislike of President Obama.  Prediction: Boozman 59%-38%. (Switch)

California: The Republicans have had high hopes here that former HP CEO Carly Fiorina could take down liberal stalwart Barbara Boxer.  It looks like she's going to come up short, although polling is quite divergent on whether it's a tight race or a blowout.  Prediction: Boxer 51%-45%.

Colorado: Everything is in place for the GOP to gain here: Sen. Michael Bennet was appointed to the seat, which voters never care for, this is a swing state, and President Obama is quite unpopular here.  However, Weld County DA Ken Buck is trying to make the leap into a strong US Senate candidate, and he's stumbled a bit along the way.  It does look like the movement in the last few days in his direction, and I think he's got a pretty good chance to pull this out.  Prediction: Buck 51%-47%. (Switch)

Delaware: The Republicans turned a certain gain into a certain loss whey they nominated political newcomer Christine O'Donnell over 9-term Rep. Mike Castle in the Primary.  O'Donnell's personal life has been the focus of the campaign, and the beneficiary has been New Castle County Executive Chris Coons (D), who should win easily tomorrow.  Prediction: Coons 55%-43%.

Florida: Another high-profile race that really won't be close, as former State House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) has this race well in hand.  The only question is whether or not he can get to 50%, a symbolic accomplishment against Gov. Charlie Crist (I) and Rep. Kendrick Meek( D).  Prediction: Rubio 47%, Crist 30%, Meek 21%.

Georgia: Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) drew a credible challenger in Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond (D), but Isakson is popular and he's going to win rather easily.  Prediction: Isakson 56%-39%.

Hawaii: With the passing of Sen. Robert Byrd, Sen. Daniel Inouye (D) is now the most senior member of the Senate, having been first elected in 1962.  He clobbered Republican Cam Cavasso six years ago, and it looks like he will do so again this year.  Prediction: Inouye 65%-33%.

Idaho: Sen. Mike Crapo (R) is a popular, conservative, and uncontroversial Senator in one of the country's most Republican states.  The only question is just how much he's able to defeat financial consultant Tom Sullivan by.  Prediction: Crapo 70%-25%.

Illinois: There has been nothing but ugliness surrounding this seat-the same one that Rod Blagojevich allegedly tried to sell.  The campaign between Rep. Mark Kirk (R) and Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) hasn't been pretty, with one accused of being a habitual liar and the other one accused of being a mob banker.  It looks like Kirk will prevail, but in such a Democratic state it will be close.  Prediction: Kirk 48%-45%. (Switch)

Indiana: The surprising decision by Sen. Evan Bayh (D) to retire really opened the floodgates here, and it looks like the beneficiary will be the man Bayh replaced in the Senate, Republican Dan Coats.  Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) had been considered a rising star, but he's got no traction in this race.  Prediction: Coats 56%-41%. (Switch)

Iowa: There was a time when it looked like former US Attorney Roxanne Conlin (D) had an outside shot to oust longtime Republican Chuck Grassley, but it's not happening this year.  Prediction: Grassley 61%-38%.

Kansas: Sen. Sam Brownback (R) is running for Governor, and Western Kansas Congressman Jerry Moran (R) is in a commanding position to keep the seat in GOP control.  Prediction: Moran 67%-32%.

Kentucky: The race to replace Hall Of Fame pitcher-turned-Senator Jim Bunning has been awfully interesting.  Ophthalmologist Rand Paul is loved by the Tea Party but had a lot of trouble connecting with a General Election audience.  He figured it out in the last few months, and Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway has been widely condemned for an ad he ran that attacked Paul's faith.  I expect this to be not nearly as close as many are predicting.  Prediction: Paul 57%-43%.

Louisiana: Sen. David Vitter (R) never seemed completely safe due to his involvement in the DC Madam scandal, and he drew a quality opponent in Rep. Charlie Melancon.  But President Obama is horribly unpopular here, and it seems like voters have mostly forgiven Vitter for what he did.  Prediction: Vitter 53%-42%.

Maryland: Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D) is the most senior woman in the Senate, and polls show her well ahead of Republican Eric Wargotz, a Queen Anne's County Commissioner.  Prediction: Mikulski 58%-41%.

Missouri: This is a swing state, and in a competitive open seat seems almost destined to go Republican in a Republican year.  And it looks like that's what's going to happen, as polling shows Rep. Roy Blunt consistently ahead of Democratic Secretary Of State Robin Carnahan.  Prediction: Blunt 53%-45%.

Nevada: This will probably be the most-watched race Tuesday night, as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is locked in a very close race with former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle.  Angle is polling slightly ahead, although Reid still has hope due to the strong Democratic machine here.  Prediction: Angle 49%-46%. (Switch)

New Hampshire: This is one state where the GOP decided to play it safe in the Primary, opting for former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte.  It appears to have paid off handsomely, as polls show her far ahead of Democratic Congressman Paul Hodes.  Prediction: Ayotte 56%-43%.

New York: If Reid does in fact lose, Chuck Schumer would likely become the next Democratic leader in the Senate.  He certainly doesn't have to worry about a challenge from political unknown Jay Townsend.  Prediction: Schumer 65%-33%.

New York (Special): New Yorkers were slow to warm up to appointed Sen. Kirstin Gillibrand (D), but she vastly outspent former Rep. Joe DioGuardi and looks certain to win here.  Prediction: Gillibrand 60%-37%.

North Carolina: This has been referred to as a "cursed" seat because no one has won re-election to this seat in decades.  But Sen. Richard Burr (R) will put that curse to bed with a comfortable win over Secretary Of State Elaine Marshall (D).  Prediction: Burr 54%-43%.

North Dakota: Gov. John Hoeven (R) is just about the most popular politician in the country, and he will blow away State Sen. Tracy Potter (D).  Prediction: Hoeven 71%-27%. (Switch)

Ohio: For most of the cycle this was considered the one of the closest Senate races out there, but not anymore.  Fmr. Rep. Rob Portman (R) has run a virtually flawless campaign and has outspent Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) many times over.  Prediction: Portman 58%-41%.

Oklahoma: Sen. Tom Coburn (R) is one of the most popular Senators in perhaps the country's most conservative state.  He'll win in a landslide over retired teacher Jim Rogers (D).  Prediction: Coburn 67%-30%.

Oregon: Oregon's not that Democratic (less so than WA & CA), but Wyden is popular and drew a weak opponent in law school professor Jim Huffman (R).  Prediction: Wyden 57%-40%.

Pennsylvania: Rep. Joe Sestak (D) looked like he might repeat his Primary performance when he stormed back to overtakes Arlen Specter in the last few weeks of the race.  But his attempt at a repeat appears to have fallen short, and he is lagging just a bit behind former GOP Congressman Pat Toomey.  Prediction: Toomey 51%-47%. (Switch)

South Carolina: Sen. Jim DeMint (R) was never going to lose of course, but he has to be pretty happy about drawing Alvin Greene as his opponent.  It's a tough race to call on the margin because we don't know how well any 3rd party candidates will do, but it's not worth putting much thought into.  Prediction: DeMint 62%-25%.

South Dakota: Republican Sen. John Thune is unopposed.  Prediction: Thune wins with 100% of the vote.

Utah: Attorney Mike Lee helped to jump-start the Tea Party surge when he ousted Republican Bob Bennett at the state party convention back in May.  Lee is polling well ahead of Democratic Sam Granato in a state where being a Tea Party candidate is a clear asset.  Prediction: Lee 57%-38%.

Vermont: Sen. Patrick Leahy (D) is an icon in state politics, but he remains the only Democratic Senator the state has ever elected.  Polls have him doubling up lumber store owner Len Britton (R).  Prediction: Leahy 64%-33%.

Washington: If you had asked me a week ago, I would've told you this was fool's gold for the GOP.  But it really looks like the trend has been away from Sen. Patty Murray (D) and towards former State Sen. Dino Rossi (R).  Polling shows those who have already voted leaning towards Rossi, so the Democrats need to make sure all those ballots are in the mail by tomorrow for Murray to catch up.  Prediction: Murray 50%-50%.  Bring on the lawyers.

West Virginia: It looked like this race was getting out of hand for Governor Joe Manchin (D) in late September, but to say he's distanced himself from President Obama would be an understatement: he shot up a copy of the Cap-and-Trade bill in a recent ad.  Businessman John Raese (R) is trying to argue that Manchin's party ID is all that matters, but a lot of West Virginians identify with Manchin-registered Democrats who don't like Obama.  Prediction: Manchin 50%-48%.

Wisconsin: Here's one Tea Party candidate who's run an outstanding campaign: businessman Ron Johnson took the lead from Sen. Russ Feingold (D) in September and hasn't looked back.  Prediction: Johnson 53%-46%.

There's little doubt the GOP will hold all their seats-the only one in any kind of danger is Alaska.  It's also certain they'll gain at least ND, AR, IN, and WI.  They look ahead, but not guaranteed, in NV, CO, IL, and PA.  In order to retake the Senate, they'll need Washington and West Virginia-I think they fall short and win 8 seats.