Election Advantage Final Predictions: Governor

They haven't gotten quite as much attention as the races for Senate and House, but which party controls a majority of the Governorships is exceptionally important, especially for redistricting.  Currently, the Democrats control 26 Governorships to 24 for the Republicans-the GOP will retake the advantage, and really the only question is by how much.  The Democrats are looking at taking some low hanging fruit in Vermont, California, Hawaii, and Rhode Island, but the GOP may win most of the big prizes like Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

Alabama: Gov. Bob Riley (R) is term-limited, but he's popular in this conservative state.  State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) came out of nowhere to win the GOP nomination this summer, and polls have him far ahead of Democratic Commissioner of Agriculture Ron Sparks. Prediction: Bentley 58%-41%.

Alaska: Gov. Sean Parnell (R) has been very popular since he took over for Sarah Palin last year, and he should easily handle Fmr. State House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz (D).  Prediction: Parnell 57%-40%.

Arizona: Gov. Jan Brewer (R) really turned around her re-election chances when she signed the controversial immigration bill.  Polls have her comfortably ahead of Attorney General Terry Goddard, who opposes the legislation.  Prediction: Brewer 56%-42%.

Arkansas: Democratic Gov. Mike Beebe will be one of the few Democratic incumbents who will be returning to the Governor mansion this year.  The moderate Beebe has a very high approval rating and should easily beat former State Sen. Jim Keet.  Prediction: Beebe 60%-38%.

California: Fmr. EBay CEO Meg Whitman has spent a jaw-dropping $160M on this race, but the turning point was the story that broke at the end of September when she was accused of hiring someone she knew was an illegal immigrant.  Last-minute polls have her narrowing the gap again, but it looks like Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) is on track to win fairly easily.  Prediction: Brown 52%-45%. (Switch)

Colorado: Everything that could have possibly gone wrong for the GOP did in this race, and it looks like the Democrats will hold here despite the unpopularity of outgoing Governor Bill Ritter.  Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper is quite popular, and former Congressman Tom Tancredo (C) has to deal with the fact that businessman Dan Maes (R) is still in the race and pulling valuable votes from Tancredo.  Prediction: Hicknenooper 49%-46%.

Connecticut: Everyone knew this would be a tough hold for the GOP when popular Gov. Jodi Rell (R) announced her retirement.  And for most of the cycle, that appeared to be the case as Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D) comfortably led former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley (R).  But it looks like Foley has made a last-second comeback, as the cash-flush RGA has gone hard after Malloy in recent weeks and polls show this race now tilting towards the Republican.  Prediction: Foley 50%-49%.

Florida: Gov. Charlie Crist's decision to run for the Senate has left a very vulnerable seat for the GOP to try and keep.  The Republican Primary here between AG Bill McCollum and businessman Rick Scott may have been uglier than any other Primary in the country, and Scott has struggled to gain his footing against state CFO Alex Sink (D).  Sink is clearly the better candidate, but Republicans appear unusually motivated to turn out here.  Prediction: Scott 50%-48%.

Georgia: Gov. Sonny Perdue (R) is retiring, and in this strongly Republican state, an easy Republican hold would be expected.  But former Rep. Nathan Deal (R) has had some ethical issues, and polls show him struggling to stay ahead of former Gov. Roy Barnes (D).  The real question, though, is whether or not he can get to 50% of the vote and avoid having to face Barnes in a runoff.  I think he gets there, but not by much.  Prediction: Deal 52%-44%.

Hawaii: Polling is always hard to come by here, but the polling we have seen looks good for former Democratic Rep. Neil Abercrombie.  Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona (R) is looking to replace his boss, well-regarded Gov. Linda Lingle, but the state's heavy Democratic lean makes this a steep hill to climb.  Prediction: Abercrombie 52%-46%. (Switch)

Idaho:  Gov. Butch Otter (R) is pretty well-liked in this heavily Republican state, and polls show him with no trouble beating lobbyist Keith Allred.  Prediction: Otter 55%-39%.

Illinois: Anyone taking over for Rod Blagojevich was going to have a tough time, especially if that person is Democrat Pat Quinn, who was Blagojevich's Lt. Governor.  State Sen. Bill Brady (R) is more conservative than the types of Republicans who usually win here, but it doesn't look like it's going to matter.  Prediction: Brady 47%-43%. (Switch)

Iowa: Gov. Chet Culver (D) has had a rocky first term, and he faces a very strong challenger in former Gov. Terry Branstad (R), who was Governor from 1983-1999.  The only question is how much Branstad wins by.  Prediction: Branstad 54%-44%. (Switch)

Kansas: After joining President Obama's cabinet, Democrat Kathleen Sebelius left behind her Lt. Governor, Mark Parkinson, in charge of the state.  But Parkinson has chosen not to seek a term of his own, leaving Sen. Sam Brownback (R) with an easy path to victory.  Prediction: Brownback 62%-37%.  (Switch)

Maine: Gov. John Baldacci (D) is term-limited, and it looks like Tea Party favorite Paul LePage will benefit from a split in the left-leaning vote between State Senate President Libby Mitchell (D) and attorney Eliot Cutler (I).  Prediction: LePage 40%, Cutler 31%, Mitchell 26%. (Switch)

Maryland:  Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) has run a very solid and disciplined campaign, and it looks like he may actually win by more than he did four years ago against Republican Bob Ehrlich.  Prediction: O'Malley 54%-44%.

Massachusetts:  Businessman Charlie Baker (R) has inched closer and closer to incumbent Gov. Deval Patrick (D), helped in part by the faltering campaign of Treasurer Tim Cahill (I).  Patrick appears to have the edge going into Election Day, but it's close enough that an upset is possible.  Prediction: Patrick 48%-44%.

Michigan: Outgoing Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm (D) has presided over the state's most recent economic woes, and the states looks like it's ready to make a big change.  Polls give businessman Rick Snyder (R) a huge lead over Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D).  Prediction: Snyder 56%-42%.  (Switch)

Minnesota:  This state seems more immune to the Republican tide that seems to be sweeping through the Midwest, perhaps due to the fact that the current Governor  is Republican Tim Pawlenty.  It's not that Pawlenty is unpopular, but the GOP has an advantage in other states where they can pin the economic troubles on the Democratic incumbent, and they don't have that luxury here.  Neither former Sen. Mark Dayton (D) nor State Rep. Tom Emmer (R) are particularly attractive candidates, but at this point Dayton looks like he's a few points ahead.  Prediction: Dayton 45%-41%. (Switch)

Nebraska:  Probably the safest incumbent this year is Republican Dave Heineman, who is clobbering attorney Mike Meister (D) in all available polling.  Prediction: Heineman 72%-26%.

Nevada:  The Governor race here hasn't gotten nearly as much attention as the Senate race, and with good reason.  Fmr. Attorney General Brian Sandoval (R) easily defeated unpopular incumbent Gov. Jim Gibbons in the Republican Primary, and General Election polling has him comfortably ahead of Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid (D).  Prediction: Sandoval 57%-41%.

New Hampshire: Gov. John Lynch's once-stratospheric popularity has taken a major hit, but he's still a bit over 50%.  Former NH HHS Secretary John Stephen (R) is a good candiadte, but it looks like he's going to come up a bit short.  Prediction: Lynch 52%-47%.

New Mexico: Gov. Bill Richardson (D) was once considered a national rising star, but an unsuccessful Presidential bid and allegations of corruption have really brought him down to size over the last couple of years.  He's not running again, but Dona Ana County DA Susanna Martinez (R) has tried to tie him to Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D), and it definitely seems to be working.  Prediction: Martinez 53%-45%. (Switch)

New York: Real Estate Developer Carl Paladino (R) is one of the more outspoken and controversial candidates anywhere this year, but that doesn't mean he has a chance to beat popular Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D).  Prediction: Cuomo 59%-39%.

Ohio: A month ago, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) looked like a sitting duck, but he's staged a furious comeback and finds himself only a point or two behind former Rep. John Kasich (R).  This one will all come down to turnout-the GOP's GOTV effort was weak here in 2008, and it needs to be better this time.  Prediction: Kasich 51%-49%.  (Switch)

Oklahoma: Democratic Gov. Brad Henry has been a popular Chief Executive, but he's term-limited, and the GOP has a great opportunity.  Rep. Mary Fallin (R) is polling way ahead of Lt. Gov. Jari Askins (D) in one of the country's most conservative states.  Prediction: Fallin 62%-38%. (Switch)

Oregon:  Fmr. Democratic Governor John Kitzhaber is looking to reclaim the office he held from 1995-2003.  Fmr. NBA Player Chris Dudley has acquitted himself very well in his first campaign, and polling indicates this could go either way.  Prediction: Kitzhaber 49%-47%. 

Pennsylvania: The state has a long tradition of switching parties every 8 years, and with Democrat Ed Rendell term-limited, it looks like that will continue this time.  Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) has run a very steady campaign, and polls show him consistently, if not overwhelmingly, ahead of Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato (D).  Prediction: Corbett 53%-46%. (Switch)

Rhode Island: The race to replace Republican Don Cacieri really turned when the Democratic nominee, Treasurer Frank Caprio, told President Obama he could take his endorsement (or lack thereof) and "shove it."  The beneficiary looks to be Independent Lincoln Chafee, who was a liberal Republican Senator from 1999-2007.  Fmr. Gubernatorial aide John Robitaille has been inching up, but it doesn't look like he'll be a factor.  Prediction: Chafee 37%, Robitaille 30%, Caprio 28%. (Switch)

South Carolina: The GOP is fortunate to be in a good position in the wake of the Mark Sanford situation, and State Rep. Nikki Haley (R) has become a Tea Party favorite.  Polls show her comfortably ahead of her Democratic rival, State Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D).  Prediction: Haley 54%-44%.

South Dakota: Gov. Mike Rounds (R) is popular in one part of the country where the economy is holding up fairly well, and his Lieutenant, Dennis Daugaard looks like he will follow in Rounds' footsteps.  The polling here gives Daugaard a clear advantage over State Senate Minority Leader Scott Heidepreim.  Prediction: Daugaard 58%-40%.

Tennessee: Gov. Phil Bredesn (D) is term-limited, and Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam (R) is certain to flip this seat to the GOP; businessman Mike McWherter (D) doesn't really stand a chance.  Prediction: Haslam 62%-36%. (Switch)

Texas: The talk here for a while was that Gov. Rick Perry (R) could be vulnerable, given his 10-year tenure and the strength of Houston Mayor Bill White (D).  But the state and year are both much too Republican, and it looks like Perry will win going away.  Prediction: Perry 55%-43%.

Utah: This is actually a Special Election, as Republican Gary Herbert took over when Gov. Jon Huntsman was appointed to be the Chinese Ambassador.  Not surprisingly in Utah, Herbert is heavily favored to beat Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon.  Prediction: Herbert 63%-33%.

Vermont: Perhaps the most liberal state in the country has actually had a Republican Governor for the last 8 years, but it doesn't seem too likely that Jim Douglas will be replaced with another Republican.  Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie has kept it close, but for now the advantage looks to be with State Senate President Pro Tempore Peter Shumlin (D).  Prediction: Shumlin 51%-47%. (Switch)

Wisconsin: This is another tough Midwestern state for the Democrats, as outgoing Gov. Jim Doyle (D) is quite unpopular.  Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R) is one of the top recruits the GOP has, and polls show him comfortably ahead of Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D).  Prediction: Walker 54%-45%. (Switch)

Wyoming: Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal is exceptionally popular, but with his two terms finished with, the Democrats don't have anyone else to feel his shoes.  This will be a cakewalk for former US Attorney Matt Mead (R).  Prediction: Mead 66%-33%. (Switch)

My final predictions are for the Republicans to gain 11 seats (IL, IA, KS, ME, MI, NM, OH, OK, PA, TN, WI, WY) and the Democrats to gain 5 (CA, HI, MN, RI, VT), counting Lincoln Chafee as a Democrat, which would mean a net gain of 6 for the Republicans.  However, there are so many close races that GOP gains could be as low as 2 or 3 and as high as 10.