Governor Rankings: July 2010

As the national climate continues to look favorable for the Republicans, it's looking increasingly likely that the biggest place they could take advantage is in the races for Governor.  With 37 of the 50 states having races for their Chief Executive, the potential exists for the Democrats to have a disastrous November.  The Democrats hold 7 Governorships that aren't up this year, and 2 more look like locks for them to hold.  But really just about every other seat they hold looks like it's in play this year.  The result is that if the Democrats can't stem the tide at all between now and November, it's not that hard to see them whittled down to 15 Governorships.  And not all Governorships are created equal, as right now the GOP looks favored to pick up Democratic governorships in key states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, Wisconsin, and Illinois.  As always, the races are ranked from least likely to change hands (#37) to most likely (#1), with last month's rankings in parentheses.  Comments, as always, are welcome!

37) (37) Nebraska (Heineman-R) The Democratic nominee, businessman Mark Lakers, dropped out of the race on Friday, leaving the Democrats trying to find a replacement candidate.  Not good.

36) (36) New York (Open, Paterson-D) Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) remains the heavy favorite in this most overpolled of races.

35) (35) Arkansas (Beebe-D) Beebe continues to effortlessly swim against the looming Republican wave in Arkansas, posting a 76% approval rating in Rasmussen's most recent poll.

34) (34) Utah (Herbert-R) Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon (D) is actually a pretty decent candidate, but the state is way too Republican for it to make a difference.

33) (32) Alaska (Parnell-R) Much as Sarah Palin rode a wave of exceptional popularity shortly after she became Governor, Parnell also has had stratospheric numbers since he took over after Palin's resignation a year ago.

32) (33) Idaho (Otter-R) Otter doesn't seem particularly impressive as a candidate, winning by an underwhelming 9 points in 2006 and barely managing half the vote in his Primary this year.  But in a state like Idaho he should still win comfortably, even if it falls short of what Republicans usually get there.

31) (30) South Dakota (Open, Rounds-R) The Republicans probably nominated their strongest candidate here in Lieutenant Governor Dennis Daugaard, who won a little over half the vote in the 4-candidate Republican field.  Polls show him solidly ahead of the Democratic nominee, State Senate Minority Leader Scott Heidepreim.

30) (23) Nevada (Open, Gibbons-R defeated in Primary) Former federal judge Brian Sandoval trounced Gibbons in the Republican Primary last month, making this a likely hold for the GOP.  Meantime, Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid, who is polling double digits behind Sandoval, seems to be avoiding any mention of his last name at all costs.

29) (29) Alabama (Open, Riley-R) The Republican runoff is coming here next week between State Rep. Robert Bentley and former State Sen. Bradley Byrne, with the winner facing Commissioner of Agriculture Ron Sparks (D) in November.  Bentley looks to have the advantage in the runoff, as he is further to the right than Byrne, stayed above the fray during the Primary, and his background as a doctor seems to be helping him on healthcare.

28) (28) South Carolina (Open, Sanford-R) Without any more shoes dropping in her alleged sex scandal, State Rep. Nikki Haley cruised to a runoff win last month against Congressman Gresham Barrett.  State Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D) is a capable candidate, but he'll need something to come out of the Haley accusations in order for him to win.

27) (31) New Hampshire (Lynch-D) This is a race to keep an eye on, as Lynch has seen his popularity take a hit over the last year or so after holding fantastic approval ratings for much of his tenure.  It's not saying much, but former state HHS Secretary John Stephen (R) is probably the toughest opponent Lynch has faced since he was first elected.

26) (27) Texas (Perry-R) PPP was out with a poll last month that showed Perry in a tie with Houston Mayor Bill White (D), and it's important not to completely forget about this race, even though I do think that's on the optimistic side for White.  Keep in mind that undecided voters have historically leaned Republican in the few competitive races Texas has seen in recent years.

25) (15) Arizona (Brewer-R) I don't want to put too much stock into Rasmussen's findings about Brewer taking a huge lead over Attorney General Terry Goddard (D), but unfortunately there's just not much else to go on.  The first indication will be the state's Primary, where Brewer still faces some credible opponents, and if she runs away with that, she should be pretty set for November.

24) (25) Massachusetts (Patrick-D) The RGA used its deep pockets to try and bury the candidacy of Treasurer Tim Cahill (I), who they feared would cipher votes from Republican Charlie Baker.  For now, Patrick continues to lead Baker, but is struggling to poll over 40% or so, indicating that this race could go down to the wire.

23) (22) Georgia (Open, Perdue-R) The Republican Primary looks like it's continuing to get closer, as a new InsiderAdvantage poll shows longtime Secretary Of State Karen Handel catching Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine.  Meantime, former Gov. Roy Barnes has a huge lead in the Democratic Primary and must be loving the tight GOP Primary and inevitable runoff.  I tend to think the state is too Republican for Barnes to win, but if there's one race that could sneak up on the Republicans, it might be this one.

22) (21) Maryland (O'Malley-D) The few polls we've seen show a very tight race between O'Malley and former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R).  This is one state where depressed Democratic turnout could help the GOP more than just about anywhere else, as O'Malley is probably going to need the standard 25% black turnout in the state in order to win.

21) (24) Maine (Open, Baldacci-D) We saw hardly a poll of the Primaries here, so I expect General Election polling here to be spare as well.  The only poll we have to go on is one from Rasmussen, which showed Republican Peter LePage leading Democrat Libby Mitchell by 7 points, but that was taken shortly after the Primary and as a result isn't as reliable.

20) (19) New Mexico (Open, Richardson-D) Polling continues to insist on a very tight race here between LG Diane Denish (D) and Dona Ana County DA Susanna Martinez (R).  The problem for Martinez is that her Primary drained most of her cash reserves while Denish is still sitting on millions; look for the RGA to help Martinez out though.

19) (26) Oregon (Open, Kulongoski-D) This race and the New Mexico race have paralleled each other very closely, with both starting as likely Democratic holds before developing into very close races.  It's early, but from the little bit I've seen it seems like former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) is running a solid campaign as a moderate political outsider.

18) (17) Florida (Open, Crist-R) The entrance of businessman Rick Scott as a Republican and real estate developer Bud Chiles as an Independent definitely complicates this race.  Chiles, the son of the late Democratic Governor Lawton Chiles, would likely take votes from CFO Alex Sink (D).  However, Scott is a bit of gamble for the Republicans because even though he has deep pockets, Democrats will try to exploit any issues with Scott's business dealings.

17) (18) Illinois (Quinn-D) I don't think many people would've expect Mark Kirk to make more errors in the Senate race than State Sen. Bill Brady (R) in the Governor race, but that's how it's played out so far.  And with Quinn's approval ratings still lagging in the 30s, he needs to hope that a whole lot of voters here who don't like him find Brady to be an even worse alternative.

16) (16) Ohio (Strickland-D) Polling continues to show a close race in Ohio, which speaks to the relative strength of Strickland given the state's economic difficulties.  Still, he's polling under 50% across the board, and he's going to need to take advantage of some of the weaknesses of former Rep. John Kasich (R) to keep him from gobbling up the bulk of the undecided voters.

15) (20) Colorado (Open, Ritter-D) Polling seems to be increasingly optimistic for Fmr. GOP Rep. Scott McInnis, who leads according to Rasmussen and SUSA and is tied according to PPP.  And that's worrisome for Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D), who undoubtedly is better-known in the pivotal Denver suburbs.

14) (12) Vermont (Open, Douglas-R) The race here remains likely to be close, especially if the Democrats nominate Secretary Of State Deb Markowitz to take on LG Brian Dubie (R).  But keep in mind that the only polls here have come from Rasmussen (which have shown Dubie ahead) and R2000 (which showed Markowtiz ahead), and with R2000's scandal one could argue now that Dubie is the favorite.

13) (14) Wisconsin (Open, Doyle-D) This race seems to move up about a spot per month, with Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R) looking increasingly tough to beat.  Both Rasmussen and PPP showed Walker up by 7 points over Milwuakee Mayor Tom Barrett (D), with PPP finding Walker throttling former Rep. Mark Neumann in the GOP Primary.

12) (13) Minnesota (Open, Pawlenty-R) Another close race in a swing state, with 3 Democrats vying for the chance to take on State Rep. Tom Emmer (R).  Many speculated that former Sen. Mark Dayton (D) retired in 2006 because he didn't think he could win re-election, but he's actually polling pretty well so far.  Even though he lost the endorsement of the state party, he still looks like the favorite over State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher in the Democratic Primary.

11) (11) California (Open, Schwarzenegger-R) Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) had the benefit of an essentially uncontested Primary, and as a result he's stockpiled some $20M in anticipation of a General Election against the deep pockets of former EBay CEO Meg Whitman (R).  Whitman has spent almost $100M so far, and it has to concern Republicans that she's still polling no better than even against Brown.

10) (9) Michigan (Open, Granholm-D) The outcome of the Republican Primary looks more and more uncertain, with polling alternating leads between Rep. Pete Hoekstra and Attorney General Mike Cox.  Businessman Rick Snyder may have the most upside of any Republican in the field with his deep pockets and status as a political outsider, but nominating a political novice is always going to be a bit of a gamble.

9) (10) Connecticut (Open, Rell-R) It was an ugly week for Republican frontrunner Tom Foley, as he had to beat back questions about a previous arrest and his divorces.  Meanwhile, the Democratic Primary has stayed relatively tame, quite a contrast for businessman Ned Lamont compared to his Senate run against Joe Lieberman four years ago. 

8) (8) Pennsylvania (Open, Rendell-D) It's too early to close the book on this one just yet, but so far there doesn't seem to be anything slowing down Attorney General Tom Corbett (R).  It certainly had to make Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato (D) grimace this week when Governor Rendell admitted that Corbett was a very formidable candidate for the GOP.

7) (7) Iowa (Culver-D) The only chance for Culver is if conservative businessman Bob Vander Plaats follows through on his threat to run as an Independent.  For now, Vander Plaats is simply leaving open the possibility of an Indy run while refusing to endorse former Gov. Terry Branstad (R), which I'm sure Branstad would gladly settle for.

6) (6) Tennessee (Open, Bredesen-D) Polling here has been pretty limited, but reading the tea leaves would seem to indicate some momentum for Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam.  Meanwhile, GOP Rep. Zach Wamp can't be too happy with the track record of Washington politicians running for Governor this year (i.e. Gresham Barrett, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Artur Davis).

5) (4) Oklahoma (Open, Henry-D) The most recent Sooner Poll, taken at the end of May, shows Rep. Mary Fallin (R) running away with the Republican Primary; she also leads both of her potential Democratic opponents by double digits.

4) (3) Rhode Island (Open, Carcieri-R) This race is really between Independent Lincoln Chafee and the eventual Democratic nominee, who still looks like it will probably be Treasurer Frank Caprio.  Caprio seems like a strong candidate, and Chafee's early lead may be inflated by his very high name ID.

3) (5) Hawaii (Open, Lingle-R) The Democrats look solidly in line for a pickup here, with Rasmussen showing both Democrats leading LG Duke Aiona by over 20 points. 

2) (2) Wyoming (Open, Freudenthal-D) Without any polling, it's pretty tough to pick the winner of the Republican Primary.  I will say that given the ugly track record of politicians' sons this year, I probably wouldn't want to be State House Speaker Colin Simpson.

1) (1) Kansas (Open, Parkinson-D) Washington politicians may have had some trouble in Governor races this year, but Sen. Sam Brownback (R) won't.