Senate Rankings: March 2010

It hasn't been much, but over the last month or so the Democrats have shown some signs of life.  It's difficult to point to one particular event that has caused the shift-maybe it's Democrats becoming more engaged on the heels of judgment day for the healthcare bill.  The Republicans still look very good in the top 4-5 races, but after that their fortunes have taken a bit of a hit.  Their candidates have slipped back in Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Colorado, and all of a sudden their advantage in states like Ohio and Florida don't look quite as intimidating.  Still, with the emergence of California as a top target and increasing pressure on Russ Feingold in Wisconsin, the GOP still has an opportunity to come very close to taking the Senate if they're able to regain their momentum.  As always, the races are ranked from least likely to flip (#37) to most likely (#1), with last month's rankings in parentheses.  I welcome comments and suggestions, or if you just want to put the word out for your favorite candidate.  

37) (37) Idaho (Crapo-R) Trying to pick between Crapo and Leahy is like trying to decide whether Kansas or Kentucky should the the #1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament.

36) (36) Vermont (Leahy-D) I might make Leahy #37 one of these months just to break the streak.

35) (33) New York (Schumer-D) Siena has tested Schumer against CNBC commentator Larry Kudlow a couple of times, and each time they have found Schumer winning about 70% of the vote.

34) (35) Maryland (Mikulski-D) Rasmussen tested Mikulski at the end of February and found her with a big 54%-36% lead over a generic Republican.

33) (34) Utah (Bennett-R) Don't let the ranking fool you: Bennett is in serious trouble in the Republican Primary.  Bennett is pretty darn conservative, but as you can imagine many Utah Republicans are even more conservative.  Attorney Mike Lee is probably Bennett's strongest Republican rival, but because there are so many other Republicans in the field, it will be difficult for Bennett to clear the 60% at the party convention he needs to avoid a Primary.

32) (32) Alabama (Shelby-R) Attorney William Barnes is the only Democrat in the race, but he's running a very uphill race against the popular and financially stacked Shelby.

31) (31) Oklahoma (Coburn-R) Rasmussen gave this one a look last month, and found Coburn with an outstanding 63%/31% favorable rating, even defeating popular Gov. Brad Henry (who's not running) by 12 points.

30) (30) South Dakota (Thune-R) Thune has maintained his focus on his re-election bid rather than any kind of 2012 plans, as he hopes to avoid a Democratic challenge this year (the Democrats have no candidate and until March 30th to find one).

29) (29) Alaska (Murkowski-R) It's slightly surprising that Murkowski has gotten a free pass in the Republican Primary, given her somewhat moderate voting record and the constantly warring factions of the Alaska Republican Party.  But it looks like any opposition she has this year will be trivial.

28) (28) Oregon (Wyden-D) After a Rasmussen poll came out showing him a shade under 50%, Wyden released a poll showing him flattening three potential Republican challengers by some 30 points.

27) (27) Hawaii (Inouye-D) No opposition yet for Inouye, who was first elected in 1962 and is the second-longest serving member of the Senate after Robert Byrd.

26) (24) New York (Special, Gillibrand-D) It's rather remarkable just how many people have been mentioned as potential candidates in this race on both sides.  The latest rumors out there are former Bush advisor Dan Senor and Diana Taylor, the girlfriend of Michael Bloomberg.

25) (15) Texas (Special?, Hutchison-R) At this point, I'm really ranking this race more on the possibility of it happening than on who would actually win it.  After Hutchison's blowout loss to Rick Perry in the Governor Primary, you can bet she's under a lot of pressure to stay in the Senate until her term ends in 2012.  And the more time it takes before any kind of announcement, the less likely she will announce her resignation.

24) (21) Washington (Murray-D) Fmr. State Sen. and 2-time failed gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi still refuses to rule out a run here, and polling indicates he would make it a competitive race.  But the Republican crop of candidates after that gets very thin, with State Sen. Don Benton probably the best-known candidate of the bunch.

23) (19) Iowa (Grassley-R) Rasmussen's most recent poll here showed Grassley with a somewhat smaller lead than expected at 53%-36% over Fmr. US Attorney Roxanne Conlin, but 68% of Iowans still view him favorably.

22) (20) Kansas (Open, Brownback-R) Rasmussen keeps popping up in races that no one else will poll, and their look at this race showed either Republican Congressman, Todd Tiahrt or Jerry Moran, up some 20 points against a generic Democrat.

21) (26) South Carolina (DeMint-R) DeMint's numbers have been slightly lackluster, but it doesn't make much of a difference in this state given the national climate.

20) (22) Arizona (McCain-R) The real possibility of J.D. Hayworth winning the Primary keeps this race inching up the rankings.  There is a very large segment of Republicans who don't like McCain, but Hayworth has flaws of his own, including his Jack Abramoff ties and re-election defeat in 2006.  More importantly, Tea Party types seem to prefer "real people" more than politicians like Hayworth, even if they agree with him on the issues.

19) (18) Connecticut (Open, Dodd-D) There's hardly any politician out there that people like right now, regardless of the state they live in or the office they hold.  But it seems like everyone in Connecticut loves AG Richard Blumenthal (D), who has big-time approval ratings and is blowing away his Republican competition.

18) (25) Georgia (Isakson-R) I'm not quite sure I buy PPP's finding where a plurality of Georgians disapprove of Isakson's job peformance, but he's not quite as strong as I would expect.  It's getting pretty late for the Democrats to find a quality candidate here, but if they did, they'd probably be able to make Isakson sweat a little.

17) (17) Louisiana (Vitter-R) Rasmussen was out last week with a poll showing Vitter with a 23-point lead over Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon.  Melancon's camp countered with a poll showing it at a more respectable 48%-38% Vitter advantage, but when you trail by 10 in your own internal, you've got a long way to go.

16) (23) Wisconsin (Feingold-D) It sounds like Fmr. Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) is getting a little more serious about a run for the Senate.  He didn't exactly come off as Mr. Charismatic during his 2008 Presidential run, but he remains a very popular figure back in Wisconsin.  But even if he passes, Feingold is still polling under 50% against businessman Terrence Wall (R), who has been raising a respectable amount of money.

15) (16) Florida (Open, LeMeiux-R) When Charlie Crist got in the race, he was the big favorite, and so he was the focus of attention with people looking for ways to bring him down.  But as the race rapidly shifted into a tossup and then a strong Marco Rubio advantage, now everyone is gunning for Rubio.  Rubio has been dinged up a bit, most notably for his frequent credit card purchases, especially for someone running on a platform of fiscal responsibility.  But most Florida Republicans will think of that as very small potatoes compared to Crist's support of the stimulus bill.

14) (13) Kentucky (Open, Bunning-R) The Primaries here aren't so far off now, with May 18th looming as the big day.  It still looks the weaker General Election candidates are in the lead, with LG Don Mongiardo and Dr. Rand Paul leading the Democratic and Republican Primaries, respectively.  The Republican Primary is getting juicy as Paul has hit SOS Trey Grayson for his vote for Bill Clinton in 1992, while Grayson has gone after Paul's isolationist foreign policy ideas.  Meantime, the Democratic Primary is getting downright petty, with Mongiardo and AG Jack Conway most recently going after each others' March Madness brackets.  Really.

13) (14) California (Boxer-D) Fmr. Rep. Tom Campbell (R) continues to inch slowly closer to Boxer, as the last 3 polls here have shown Boxer with only a 4-point lead.  But getting through the Primary won't be easy for Campbell, who faces the deep pockets and extremely creative (albeit quite odd) campaign videos of Fmr. HP CEO Carly Fiorina.

12) (11) North Carolina (Burr-R) PPP has kept Burr well under 50%, but Rasmussen gave this race a look late last month and found no problems for Burr, who led SOS Elaine Marshall 50%-34%.  It's difficult for any Republican in North Carolina to win a statewide race by more than 10 points or so, and as a result you shouldn't expect a blowout here.  But Burr's big campaign coffers and the national climate make a Burr loss still pretty unlikely.

11) (7) Illinois (Open, Burris-D) Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) is polling a little ahead of Rep. Mark Kirk (R), which isn't a bad showing for Kirk in such a Democratic state, but it's probably not where he wanted to be at by this point in the campaign.  However, Giannoulias' family bank is in very serious trouble, and if it goes under, the NRSC will have a field day.

10) (10) Ohio (Open, Voinovich-R) Fmr. Rep. Rob Portman (R) has maintained a very small but consistent lead in the polling here.  It'll be interesting to see how much the competitive Democratic Primary is costing LG Lee Fisher and SOS Jennifer Brunner when they release their newest numbers at the end of the month, with the Primary is coming up soon on May 4th. 

9) (8) Pennsylvania (Specter-D) Specter seems to fighting back from his low last summer, when he was taking a beating from voters about healthcare reform.  Rep. Joe Sestak hasn't made his move yet in the Democratic Primary, but Specter is still polling right around that critical 50% mark.  Polls seem to be waffling back and forth on who has the advantage between Specter and Fmr. Rep. Pat Toomey (R), but so far Specter has to be fairly happy with how little damage his Primary battle has done.

8) (9) New Hampshire (Open, Gregg-R) This race is almost completely dependent now on who wins the Republican Primary, which is very late (September 14th).  If the winner is AG Kelly Ayotte, she'll be a clear favorite; if it's businessman Bill Binnie, the race will be pretty close; if it's attorney Ovide Lamontagne, the advantage would go to Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes.

7) (6) Missouri (Open, Bond-R) It would be a nice to get a non-Rasmussen poll here for a change, but they've been very consistent over the last few months in giving Rep. Roy Blunt a 6-7 point lead.  This does seem to be a very weak state for Obama (the only swing state he lost in 2008), and that could make a big difference in a state where every point or two makes a big difference.

6) (5) Colorado (Bennet-D) PPP gave us a look at this race yesterday and Friday, and maybe the biggest story is the strength of Fmr. State House Speaker Andrew Romanoff.  Romanoff leads the Republican frontrunner, LG Jane Norton, by 5 points, and he only trails Bennet by just 6 points in the Democratic Primary.  He can make a much better case as an outsider, especially since Bennet was appointed to the Senate by outgoing Governor Bill Ritter, who is retiring amid weak approval ratings.  But Romanoff will have to overcome a large financial disparity between him and the establishment candidate Bennet, making the FEC reports due at the end of this month particularly important.

5) (12) Indiana (Open, Bayh-D) Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) is a strong candidate for the Democrats as they try to hold onto Bayh's seat: telegenic, with the right amount of experience, and a moderate voting record.  Meantime, Fmr. Sen. Dan Coats (R) seems to have another lobbying issue come up everyday, which is far from ideal for him, especially in this climate.  But at the end of day, this is a Republican state in a Republican year, and that makes it very tough for the candidate fighting the headwind, even if they're the better candidate (see Michael Steele, Tom Kean Jr., Brad Carson, Tony Knowles, etc.)

4) (4) Nevada (Reid-D) Harry Reid needs every bit of help he can get, and the fact that the Tea Party was able to get a candidate on the ballot is a step in the right direction for Reid.  But it's exceptionally rare for an incumbent to be polling consistently in the 30s, and still come back to win.

3) (3) Delaware (Open, Kaufman-D) New Castle County Executive Chris Coons (D) has a chance to make himself a player for a future statewide race if can keep it competitive against Rep. Mike Castle (R).  But Castle probably isn't going to be beaten, as evidenced by his 20+ point wins in the terrible Republican years of 2006 and 2008.

2) (2) Arkansas (Lincoln-D) LG Bill Halter (D) will be able to raise plenty of money in his Primary challenge to Lincoln, already getting help from major nationwide liberal networks.  But while Halter's candidacy might send a message to Lincoln, Rep. John Boozman (R) would be a huge favorite over whoever the Democrats pick.

1) (1) North Dakota (Open, Dorgan-D) It's actually possible that Gov. John Hoeven (R) could win this race by more than any other Senator will win theirs this cycle.