Rasmussen PA-SEN: Specter Leads Primary, Toomey Leads Both Dems

Rasmussen Pennsylvania Poll conducted 3/15 of 1000 LVs, including 481 Democratic LVs:

Democratic Primary:

Sen. Arlen Specter 48%
Rep. Joe Sestak 37%

General Election:

Fmr. Rep. Pat Toomey (R) 49%
Sen. Arlen Specter (D) 40%

Fmr. Rep. Pat Toomey (R) 42%
Rep. Joe Sestak (D) 37%

Specter seems to be polling in the same general range in most primary polls-right around that 50% mark, maybe a little more, maybe a little less.  That's very perilous territory for him, but I'm relatively inclined to think he'll pull it out.  First of all, he'll have the full support of the Philly machine, which is not trivial in a statewide Primary.  Second, he hasn't done anything to this point that would suggest he isn't loyal to the Democratic Party, although Sestak will try to argue there's no guarantee of that being the case for six more years.  Third, in the very small sample size of actual statewide Primaries recently, the establish Democrat won each time (Coakley in MA, Quinn and Giannoulias in IL, White in TX), and there just doesn't seem to be the anti-incumbent sentiment among Democrats that there is among Republicans.

As for the General, there continue to be two completely differnent schools of thought, with Rasmussen leading the charge of pollsters who think Toomey has a clear advantage.  I decided to compare this poll to the Quinnipiac poll out a couple of weeks ago that showed Specter leading Toomey 49%-42%.  Interestingly, Obama's approval rating is virtually identical in the two polls: 49% in Q and 48% in Rasmussen.  They also found very similar approval ratings for Democratic Governor Ed Rendell: 43% according to Quinnipiac and 47% according to Rasmussen.  Also, Arlen Specter's favorable rating is similar in the two polls: 44% in Q and 42% here.  So where's the difference?  According to Quinnipiac, just 67% of Democrats view Specter favorably, and yet 82% say they would vote for him.  Having to make some assumptions because Rasmussen doesn't make his crosstabs public, it seems those two numbers need to be very similar in Rasmussen's polling.  My best bet is that Rasmussen is finding that group of conservative Democrats who view Specter unfavorably are most in-tune with the race and now about more of the details of Specter's party switch, while Quinnipiac's RVs may have more of a passing knowledge.  The bottom line?  Quinnipiac probably gives a good indication of where the race is at now, while Rasmussen is probably telling us where it could be going-especially if Democrats aren't motivated.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS.