Governor Rankings: January 2010

 After a quiet month of December, January has been a busy month for both sides, who can each take some solace in what's happened recently.  The Democrats are right to point out that the retirement of the Democratic Governor of Colorado, the long-awaited entry of a stellar candidate in New York, and the departure of a weak candidate in Michigan should help their chances in each of those races.  Meanwhile, the GOP beneifts from clearer fields for their frontrunners in California, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.  The key, after the top 12 or 13 races, is in races #14-22 or so, which are probably the most competitive right now.  Including in that bunch are key states like Florida, Colorado, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Ohio, key bellwethers that will have major redistricting implications in battleground states.  The races are ranked from least likely to change hands (#37) to most likely (#1)-comments welcome!

37) (37) Nebraska (Heineman-R) Still no opposition yet to Heineman, who has consistently been among the most popular Governors in the country since he took office in 2005.

36) (35) Arkansas (Beebe-D) Democrats are starting to talk up the possibility of Beebe running for the Senate if Blanche Lincoln retires, and indeed he seems to be of the few popular Democrats left in Arkansas.

35) (34) Maryland (O'Malley-D) A poll out last week showed O'Malley leading Fmr. Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) by 9, a nice place to be in especially considering that Ehrlich still doesn't sound like he'll run.

34) (32) Idaho (Otter-R) We finally have a couple of Democrats in this race, namely lobbyist Keith Allred and 2006 candidate Lee Chaney.

33) (33) New Hampshire (Lynch-D) Rasmussen took a look at this race a couple weeks ago and found Lynch leading his two potential opponents by more than 20 points.

32) (36) Utah (Herbert-R) Herbert has a quality challenger now in Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Coroon, who has polled 13 points down (according to Dan Jones) or 25 points down (according to Mason-Dixon).  But this state is much too Republican in a good Republican year for Coroon to have any real chance.

31) (30) South Dakota (Open, Rounds-R) Not much new to add here, as the Republicans remain clear favorites in a state that hasn't elected a Democratic Governor since 1974.

30) (31) Alaska (Parnell-R) Gov. Sean Parnell was very nearly elected to Congress in 2008, barely losing the Primary to Rep. Don Young (R).  This isn't the first time a Parnell had lost to Young, though, as the Governor's father lost to Young as a Democrat in 1980.

29) (29) Oregon (Open, Kulongoski-D) The Democrats have really tightened their grip on Oregon, as they now control both houses of the state legislature, all but one member of the Congressional Delegation, and most importantly to this race, all statewide offices.  This has left the GOP with basically nobody to run, and keeps Fmr. Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) the strong favorite.

28) (27) New York (Paterson-D) It sounds like Andrew Cuomo is going to finally announce his bid for Governor in March, putting to end months and months of speculation about what his plans might be.  Polls show him way ahead of Paterson in the Democratic Primary, and also with a big lead over Fmr. GOP Congressman Rick Lazio.

27) (28) New Mexico (Open, Richardson-D) The GOP has really struggled to find an answer to popular Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D), who has been the frontrunner pretty much since she got in the race.  But they now seem to have an interesting counterpunch: attorney Pete Domenici Jr., a complete unknown in his own right, but of course the son of 36-year Senator Pete Domenici who retired in 2008.  That name alone won't make the race competitive, but it'll be interesting to see if he's able to shake up what's mostly been a quiet race so far.

26) (23) Maine (Open, Baldacci-D) It seems like 1% of the state's population is running for Governor here, and with no runoffs it's awfully tough to figure out who the favorites are on each side.  One interesting name to add to the mix is Republican attorney Steve Abbott, who spent 12 years as the Chief Of Staff to Sen. Susan Collins (R).

25) (25) Texas (Perry-R) The Primary battle between Perry and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison is getting ugly, and getting expensive: the two reported a combined $24M on hand at the start of the year, meaning a ton of advertising between now and the March 2nd Primary.  The good news for the Republicans is that Rasmussen found both Republicans with double digit leads over Houston Mayor Bill White (D) even in the midst of the Primary.

24) (20) Illinois (Quinn-D) Quinn is in for the battle of his political career next Tuesday, as polls show him now running neck-and-neck with Comptroller Dan Hynes in the Democratic Primary.  Hynes, who is running as more of an outsider, would probably hold this seat more easily for the Democrats than Quinn.

23) (24) South Carolina (Open, Sanford-R) Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer got in a bit of trouble this weekend by apparently comparing people to animals, a statement he had to backtrack on today.  Of the Republicans who have announced their fundraising number so far, Rep. Gresham Barrett ($2M on hand) has a small lead over AG Henry McMaster ($1.5M on hand). 

22) (26) Massachusetts (Patrick-D) Martha Coakley's loss last week had Democrats all across the country grimacing, but few felt it more than Patrick, whose approval rating looked terrible in the election polling we saw.  His bacon still could be saved by the candidacy of Treasurer Tim Cahill (I), who seems to be pulling about as many anti-Patrick votes as the Republican candidate.

21) (21) Alabama (Open, Riley-R) Agricultural Commissioner Ron Sparks (D) has gotten himself in some trouble for balking at a possible run against party-switching Rep. Parker Griffith (R).  Rep. Artur Davis has made that a big issue, and given his huge advantage with blacks, he looks favored in the Democratic Primary.  The Republican field is not as clear-cut, although Fmr. State County Community College Bradley Byrne seems like the slight favorite.

20) (17) Nevada (Gibbons-R) Fmr. Attorney General Brian Sandoval (R) got a shot in the arm today when Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman (I) announced he wouldn't run for Governor.  Sandoval seems like the clear favorite now, and it looks increasingly possible that this could be an easy hold for the GOP, especially if Sandoval can handle Gibbons as easily in the Primary as it appears.

19) (22) Georgia (Open, Perdue-R) Fmr. Gov. Roy Barnes (D) is for real-he's got a huge lead in the Democratic Primary over AG Thurbert Baker, and a Rasmussen poll out last week showed him neck-and-neck with the GOP frontrunner, Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine.  He also pulled in a huge sum of $2.7M in Q4, better than any of the Republicans.  This state may have moved a bit too far to the Republicans for him to win, but it's going to be tight.

18) (19) Wisconsin (Open, Doyle-D) This race had a lot of fireworks in October and November, but now seems to have settled into a bona-fide toss-up between Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) and Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R).  But Walker's early entry likely gives him the fundraising edge: Barrett reported $1.5M on hand at the end of the year, but Walker had almost that much ($1.1M) six months earlier.

17) (15) Arizona (Brewer-R) The entry of Treasurer Dean Martin (R) into the race is just the break the GOP needed in a race that looked like it was slipping away from them.  Brewer is not a popular Governor, and her support for a sales tax increase makes her particularly vulnerable in a Republican Primary.  Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) remains a strong candidate, but he wouldn't be much better than 50/50 against Martin.

16) (18) Florida (Open, Crist-R) This is the stretch of races that look the closest right now that will determine who will gain seats this year in the Governorships.  There might not be a more important race than this one, with its population growth, close elections, and redistricting implications.  Still every reason to expect a tight one between CFO Alex Sink (D) and AG Bill McCollum (R).

15) (14) Colorado (Open, Ritter-D) Ritter's retirement gives the Democrats a significantly better chance than they would've had otherwise, as polls consistently showed Ritter down to Fmr. Rep. Scott McInnis (R) by a margin close to 10 points.  But Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) doesn't appear to be a cure-all just yet for the Democrats, as the couple of polls taken of this race with Hickenlooper still show McInnis with a very slight lead.

14) (16) Ohio (Strickland-D) This race seems to be slipping away from Strickland, perhaps for reasons that are beyond his control.  A poll released this weekend showed Strickland trailing Fmr. Rep. John Kasich (R) 51%-45%, and yet just 3% of voters said that Strickland deserved the most blame for the state's economic woes.

13) (13) Wyoming (Open?, Freudenthal-D) Reports said that Freudenthal hired a pollster to test how the voters would respond to him going for a 3rd term, but those results weren't released.  There has been some more movement on the GOP side, though, with Auditor Rita Meyer entering the race and Fmr. US Attorney Matt Mead making his candidacy official.

12) (8) Michigan (Open, Granholm-D) Democratic Lt. Gov. John Cherry's exit from the race could help the Democrats in the long run, if they're able to find a quality replacement.  Rep. Bart Stupak has decided not to run, and State House Speaker Andy Dillon's pro-life stance could make it tough for him to get through a Democratic Primary.  Some Democrats are enthusiastic, though, about the potential candidacy of Virg Bernero, the mayor of Lansing.

11) (12) Pennsylvania (Open, Rendell-D) The Democratic field is beginning to clear up just a bit here, with businessman Tom Knox (D) announcing his exit from the race; he endorsed Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato.  That leaves the big Philadelphia vote up for grabs in the Primary, perhaps to the benefit of Fmr. Rep. Joe Hoeffel, who used to represent part of the city in Congress.  But the bigger news may be on the Republican side, with Rep. Jim Gerlach ending his campaign and leaving AG Tom Corbett as the clear frontrunner in both the GOP Primary and probably the General Election, too.

10) (10) Iowa (Culver-D) Gov. Chet Culver has a huge battle on his hands, but he knows it, as he ended 2009 with over $2.5M in the bank.  But Fmr. Gov. Terry Branstad (R) already has about half that, despite just getting into the race a couple of months ago.  The Primary for him may not be as much of an obstacle as it seemed, if you believe an internal poll from his camp that showed him with a 63%-18% lead over 2006 LG Nominee Bob Vander Plaats.

9) (11) Vermont (Open, Douglas-R) This is the type of race that is very difficult to properly assess without a poll, as Vermont is extremely Democratic for most offices, but then again has elected Douglas and Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie four times each since 2002.  I wouldn't be shocked to see a poll show it very close here, and a very comfortable lead for any of the Democrats running also wouldn't be surprising.

8) (6) California (Open, Schwarzenegger-R) The GOP's chances to seem be improving here just a bit, most notably because Fmr. Congressman Tom Campbell decided to switch over from this race to a Senate run against Barbara Boxer.  This gives Fmr. EBay CEO Meg Whitman a clearer path through the Republican Primary, and she's also been inching closer to AG Jerry Brown (D) in polling from both Rasmussen and Field.  It also helps when you can throw another $20M into your campaign without batting an eye.

7) (9) Connecticut (Open, Rell-R) The very surprising move by Secretary Of State Susan Bysiewicz (D) not to run probably sets up a run against Joe Lieberman in 2012, but for now it complicates things for the Democrats.  Polls showed her in a commanding position over either Republican, but now polls show the most likely matchups favoring the Democrats by just single digits. Ned Lamont (D) and Tom Foley (R) look like the frontrunners on each side, but there seems to be some hesitation in the state about having two very wealthy guys as their choices.

6) (4) Hawaii (Open, Lingle-R) We've had two polls of this race so far, and neither have shown the Democrats in the commanding position that many expected.  Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona (R) needs a perfect storm to win in this heavily Democratic state, but a Republican year and a competitive Democratic Primary between Rep. Neil Abercrombie and Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann is a good start.

5) (7) Minnesota (Open, Pawlenty-R) I'm not so sure that Fmr. Sen. Norm Coleman (R) would've been the best Republican to run so soon after his protracted recount battle that lasted through the first half of 2009.   But his decision not to run leaves the Republicans with a list of little-known candidates, while the Democrats have a stellar candidate in Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak and a well-funded and experienced one in Fmr. Sen. Mark Dayton.

4) (5) Tennessee (Open, Bredesen-D) The Republican Primary looks like it's coming down to Rep. Zach Wamp and Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam, while the Democratic field remains very weak.  One area where Haslam has a huge advantage is in fundraising, as Haslam had more than triple Wamp's COH at the end of June-we'll see if Wamp has closed that gap at all when they release their new numbers this week.

3) (2) Oklahoma (Open, Henry-D) A Tulsa World Poll out earlier this month showed Rep. Mary Fallin (R) leading both potential Democratic opponents by double digits, which sounds about right.

2) (3) Rhode Island (Open, Carcieri-R) The Republicans finally have a candidate here in John Robitallie, a former aide to outgoing Governor Carcieri.  But the real battle is likely to be between Fmr. Sen. Lincoln Chafee (I), and the Democratic nominee, who will be either Treasurer Frank Caprio or Attorney General Patrick Lynch.

1) (1) Kansas (Open, Parkinson-D) Not only is Brownback going to waltz into the Governor's mansion, but the GOP has a good chance to end up controlling everything in Kansas after this year: the Congressional delegation, the state legislature, and all the statewide offices.