Quinnipiac Pennsylvania Poll conducted 12/8-12/14 of 1381 RVs, including 619 Democrats:
Democratic Primary:
Sen. Arlen Specter 53%
Rep. Joe Sestak 30%
General Election:
Sen. Arlen Specter (D) 44%
Fmr. Rep. Pat Toomey (R) 44%
Fmr. Rep. Pat Toomey (R) 40%
Rep. Joe Sestak (D) 35%
Both Rasmussen and Quinnipiac came out this week with polls showing Specter doing a bit better in the Democratic Primary, as his support for the health care bill has proven critical. But Sestak's name ID is still tiny, as he has just a 25%/5% favorable rating among Democrats, leaving 70% without an opinion of him. Specter is still a slight favorite in the Primary, but the margin is going to tighten very quickly next Spring.
The General Election numbers between Toomey and Specter have actually been pretty stable, according to Quinnipac, as they have had the two within a point of each other in their last 3 polls here. Toomey has a sparking 35%/10% favorable rating, but that's certain to take a hit once the winning Democrat starts turning his fire towards Toomey. A couple of points from looking at the crosstabs for each candidate: Specter has an advantage because there are many more undecided women (16%) than men (7%). He also benefits a bit from being a former Republican, as he nabs 11% of Republicans. The opportunity for Toomey is in the West and Northeast, where he trails narrowly, which jives with him trailing 52%-36% in union households and winning just 10% of Democrats. He needs to win over those conservative Democrats to win, as he already does well among Republicans and leads 44%-36% among Indies.
SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS.
0 comments:
Post a Comment