Sunday, November 1, 2009

SPT/MH FL-SEN Primaries: Crist and Meek Well Ahead

St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald Florida Poll conducted 10/25-10/28 of 600 RVs:

Republican Primary:

Gov. Charlie Crist 50%
Fmr. State House Speaker Marco Rubio 28%

Democratic Primary:

Rep. Kendrick Meek 26%
Fmr. Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre 6%

The Republican Primary isn't quite as close here as other polls are showing it, but I still think the Primary is on track to be quite close. As I have suspected, Crist's support seems to be rather soft, as "Nearly half the Republicans who opposed Crist supporting Obama on the stimulus package still said they would vote for him." I think many Republicans have the same feeling about this race as one poll respondent, who said, "Right now, with Charlie Crist, I'm dealing with the devil I know. But I want to look into Rubio to see exactly what he is about." If Rubio can make a strong impression on these type of voters, I think the topline numbers could move in his direction rather quickly as we approach the date of the Primary. Meantime, Ferre's nascent potential candidacy looks like a nonstarter, as Meek has already raised millions of dollars and secured the endorsement of many high-profile Democrats. The General Election currently rates as a STRONG ADVANTAGE FOR THE REPUBLICANS.

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