Some House Ratings Changes...

In the next week or so, I expect to add several (perhaps up to 2 dozen) new races to my list of competitive House races for next year. But before I start adding on these seats, there are a few that I will remove, which no longer look likely to be at all competitive next year. They are:

CA-04 (Suburban Sacramento-Roseville, Rocklin, Auburn) Rep. Tom McClintock-R. McClintock barely won (by about 1800 votes) in this heavily Republican seat last year thanks due to a tough primary and the fact that he moved almost a thousand miles to run in the district. But those issues seem like a water under the bridge now in a district that McCain was able to carry by 10 points last year despite his horrible performance in California. Strong►OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR McCLINTOCK.

CA-24 (Simi Valley, Thousand Oaks, Lompoc) Rep. Elton Gallegly-R. Ventura County is Reagan country, as the former President's library is located in Simi Valley. But while Reagan won Ventura County 69%-30% in 1984, the county voted last year for Obama 55%-43%. The rapid change looked like it could threaten longtime Rep. Elton Gallgely (R) next year, but Democrats only managed 42% against him last year, a number that looks more likely to go down than up in 2010. Strong►OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR GALLEGLY.

CA-25 (Santa Clarita, Palmdale, northern LA suburbs) Rep. Buck McKeon-R. Similar to Gallgely, McKeon is a longtime incumbent who was held under 60% for the first time in a long time last year. But with the Democratic wave appearing to have crested last year, it should be gentler waters for the Congressman next year. A rematch between McKeon and law office
manager Jackie Conaway (D), which ended in a 58%-42% win for McKeon last year, looks likely. Strong►OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR McKEON.

CA-46 (Rancho Palos Verdes, Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach) Rep. Dana Rohrabacher-R. After supporting Bush by double digits in 2004, this area barely backed McCain, 50%-48%, in 2008. Longtime Congressman Rohrabacher also faced a strong challenge in Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook, who held him to just 53% of the vote. But this year, Rohrabacher doesn't even have a Democratic challenger yet, and it looks like this race should be much easier for him than last year's was. Strong►OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR ROHRABACHER.

MO-09 (Columbia, St. Charles, Union) Rep. Blaine Leutkmeyer-R. This was one of the hottest open seat races last year, with Leutkmeyer barely defeating Democrat Judy Baker 50%-47%. The freshman Congressman still doesn't have an announced opponent, and in a district that McCain carried by 11 points he looks pretty safe for a 2nd term next year. Strong►OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR LEUTKMEYER.

TX-24 (Suburban DFW: Grand Prairie, Carrollton, Grapevine) Rep. Kenny Marchant-R. This was admittedly a rather ambitious inclusion in my list of competitive House races, although a rapid increase in minority voters here and Marchant's lethargic 56% last year piqued my interest. But those voters who held Marchant and McCain to the mid-50s here last year probably won't turn out in big numbers next year, and Marchant has yet to draw an opponent. Strong►OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR MARCHANT.

WV-02 (Charleston, Martinsburg, Elkins) Rep. Shelley Moore Capito-R. Since she was first elected in 2000, Capito has won re-election with 60%, 58%, 57%, and 57%-comfortable margins, but not resounding enough for her to be considered totally safe. But she doesn't have any opposition so far, and this is one part of the country where Obama is really struggling. Strong►OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR CAPITO.