Senate Rankings: November 2009

When this Senate cycle started, it looked like the only question was how many seats the Democrats would gain. Since only 1/3 of the seats are up every 2 years, it's easy to tell early on whether that year's docket favors the Democrats or the Republicans. And with open Republican seats in Missouri, Ohio, Kentucky, Kansas, Florida, and New Hampshire, the Democrats looked primed for their 3rd straight cycle of gains. But for the first time this cycle, I actually have the Republicans gaining seats in my Senate Ratings Table, thanks in part to stellar recruiting and also due to the improving national climate for the GOP. Feel free to comment on any of these races or tout your favorite candidate. The races are ranked from least likely to change hands (#37) to most likely (#1), with last month's rankings in parentheses.

37) (37) Idaho (Crapo-R) Crapo has won a total of five terms to the House and Senate, and he has never won by less than 26 points.

36) (36) Vermont (Leahy-D) Two years before Leahy was first elected to the Senate in 1974, Republican Richard Nixon carried Vermont 63%-36%. Two years before Leahy runs for his seventh term in 2010, Obama won the state 67%-32%.

35) (35) New York (Schumer-D) The most recent SUSA poll actually gives Schumer "only" a 55% approval rating, but most other polls show him well over 60% support.

34) (34) Maryland (Mikulski-D) A Clarus Research poll taken a couple weeks back shows Mikulski leading "someone else" 53%-36%, and as any political observer knows, a real candidate will poll much worse against an incumbent than a generic one.

33) (32) Utah (Bennett-R) A bit of news here with Attorney General Mark Shurtleff (R) dropping his Primary challenge to Bennett. The Senator should have an easier time in the Primary now with mostly unknown opponents, although rumors continue to swirl that Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R) may be interested.

32) (29) Alabama (Shelby-R) SUSA's latest says that 56% of Alabama adults approve of Shelby, with just 36% disapproving. He doesn't have a declared opponent yet-a $15M campaign account will tend to do that.

31) (28) Alaska (Murkowski-R) Attorney Frank Vodersaar (D) is Murkowski's only opponent so far, and he was last seen losing to Ted Stevens by a staggering 78%-11% margin in 2002.

30) (31) South Dakota (Thune-R) I mentioned half-jokingly last month about Thune being the next President, but he is a dark-horse candidate to watch. Few Republicans would consider him not conservative enough, and he is unlikely to rub swing voters in the suburbs the wrong way.

29) (27) Indiana (Bayh-D) The national tide seems to weakening some Democratic incumbents who have been long been safe in Republican-leaning territory, but Bayh still seems solidly on track for a 3rd term.

28) (24) Arizona (McCain-R) McCain has drawn a smattering of challengers on both the right and left, but no one who would pose any threat to him winning a 5th term.

27) (33) Oklahoma (Coburn-R) Since Democrat David Boren won his last term in 1990, no Democrat has won more than 41% of the vote in an Oklahoma Senate race.

26) (30) Hawaii (Inouye-D) Similarly, no Republican has won more than 37% of the vote in a Senate race in Hawaii since 1990.

25) (25) Oregon (Wyden-D) SUSA polls Oregon monthly, and since February Wyden's approval rating has stayed between 53%-57% the entire time.

24) (26) North Dakota (Dorgan-D) No word yet on whether or not Gov. John Hoeven (R) will run, but it doesn't exactly sound like NRSC chair John Cornyn is holding his breath.

23) (23) Washington (Murray-D) SUSA has Murray's approval rating bouncing back a bit this month to 52%, but it's a little surprising that the GOP has made no effort here with an incumbent Senator's approval rating hovering around 50%.

22) (22) Wisconsin (Feingold-D) No troubles for Feingold-a liberal with a maverick streak is a good fit for a state like Wisconsin.

21) (18) Georgia (Isakson-R) No confirmed challengers to Isakson, who looks like a solid bet for a 2nd term.

20) (21) South Carolina (DeMint-R) Some Republicans are grumbling about Sen. Lindsey Graham (R), who they feel isn't conservative enough, but they love DeMint. Rumor has it that DeMint is thinking of challenging Mitch McConnell to become the new Republican leader of the Senate after the 2010 elections.

19) (20) New York (Special, Gillibrand-D) If in fact Fmr. Gov. George Pataki (R) is thinking at all about this race, he must have been buoyed by strong Republican results in local elections last week in the NYC suburbs.

18) (19) Kansas (Open, Brownback-R) In some recent elections, the GOP in Kansas has been hurt by spats between the moderate and conservative wings of the party. But that doesn't seem to be a problem in this race, as the race between Reps. Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt have been civil so far, and there really isn't much to delineate the two ideologically in the first place.

17) (17) California (Boxer-D) Boxer's approval rating continues to be rather mediocre, but it would have to be downright terrible for her to lose in a state like this. The Republican Primary between Fmr. HP CEO Carly Fiorina and State Assemblyman Chuck DeVore is getting interesting, as moderates line up behind Fiorina and conservatives flock to DeVore.

16) (15) Iowa (Grassley-R) The Democrats seem to have found a candidate to oppose Grassley in Roxanne Conlin, a former US Attorney who lost a race for Governor to Terry Branstad all the way back in 1982. But their best chance definitely passed when Christine Vilsack, the state's former First Lady, decided not to run.

15) (14) Texas (Special?, Hutchison-R) A bit of news here with Hutchison announcing that she won't resign her Senate seat until her Gubernatorial Primary showdown with incumbent Republican Rick Perry is over next March. But I maintain there's a chance that she won't give up the seat after all, and there may not be a Special Election. But if there is one, don't necessarily expect a slam-dunk hold for the Republicans.

14) (13) North Carolina (Burr-R) Burr's standing continues to very gradually improve, as polls and fundraising have him comfortably ahead of Secretary Of State Elaine Marshall (D). This week, Rep. Bob Etheridge and Fmr. State Sen. Cal Cunningham passed, adding to the list of high-profile Democrats who have decided not to run against Burr.

13) (11) Louisiana (Vitter-R) Polling shows that Vitter's indiscretions put him in a tougher spot than he would be otherwise, but it doesn't necessarily appear to be fatal. The best strategy for Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) will be to emulate what Democrat Mark Begich did in the Alaska Senate race last year: refer to the controversy very obliquely, and let the media put out the sordid details.

12) (16) Florida (Open, Martinez-R) All of a sudden, Gov. Charlie Crist looks very vulnerable in the Republican Primary, although that may make the General Election a little bit more dicey for the GOP. Crist is starting to go after Rubio for some of the Former State House Speaker's support for tax increases, but I'm not so sure Crist should be going negative at this point. If he were to admit that he made a mistake in supporting the stimulus bill, he probably could score some points among conservatives. Meantime, Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) has to enjoy the fact that he's able to let the Republicans duke it out, but it's still tough to see him winning statewide.

11) (12) Kentucky (Open, Bunning-R) Both sides' primaries continue to look very competitive. Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo leads for the Democrats, although Attorney General Jack Conway's financial advantage could make the difference. The Republican establishment is clearly pulling for SOS Trey Grayson over physician Rand Paul, but Paul's not going away quietly. I think a Conway-Paul matchup is the only combination that would seriously worry the Republicans.

10) (6) Illinois (Open, Burris-D) Rep. Mark Kirk's bumbling attempt to secure Sarah Palin's endorsement is an uncharacteristic mistake for the Congressman. The last thing Kirk wants to do is nationalize this race and turn it into in a proxy battle between Palin and Obama. Instead, he needs to focus on local issues and railing against Chicago politics, epitomized by Rod Blagojevich.

9) (8) Pennsylvania (Specter-D) Specter's numbers continue to plummet, as voters seem to view his party switch as more motivated by politics than principle. If Toomey can tap into some of populist anger out there and focus almost exclusively on economic issues, he has a real chance to win. Also keep in mind that PA has one of the oldest populations of any state, meaning healthcare could played an outsized role here.

8) (7) Colorado (Bennet-D) After a wild September, this race has been pretty quiet of late. Bennet and Norton remain the clear favorites in their respective Primaries, although the edge may go to the candidate who has the easier race. Keep in mind that Bennet has never run for anything before, and he'll need to avoid any rookie mistakes to maintain his slight edge.

7) (10) Arkansas (Lincoln-D) PPP will have a new poll out of Arkansas this week, but right now Lincoln looks like she's in major trouble. Whether you believe the polls that have her a few points ahead or the ones that have her a bit behind, she's way under 50% against opponents that most voters have never heard of. The race this most reminds me of is the Oregon Senate race last year-when Gordon Smith did everything he could to win against a mediocre field, but after being squeezed by his base and the middle, he couldn't quite pull it out.

6) (9) New Hampshire (Open, Gregg-R) The Republican field is getting more crowded, with businessman Bill Binnie and attorney Ovide Lamontagane entering the race last week. Attorney General Kelly Ayotte is still the clear favorite, especially considering Lamontagne lost a bid for Governor by 17 points in 1996. Her path still became tougher, although as someone who hasn't run a campaign before, she could benefit from having to clearly define what issues she's going to run on (provided she doesn't make a big mistake).

5) (4) Ohio (Open, Voinovich-R) This race seems to be gradually tipping towards Fmr. Rep. Rob Portman (R), who has led in the most recent Quinnipiac and Rasmussen polls. More importantly, by the time the Democratic Primary is over next May, Portman could already be sitting on $7M-$8M, while the winning Democrat will likely have to burn through most of his or her warchest to prevail in the Primary.

4) (5) Nevada (Reid-D) I'm interested to see if Reid's early barrage of ads move his numbers in the next round of polling from here. If they do, it could be an indication that voters will ultimately come home to Reid even if they aren't thrilled with everything he's been doing as the Senate Majority Leader. But if his numbers stay put, it could be a sign that his financial advantage isn't as important as it looks.

3) (3) Missouri (Open, Bond-R) The status of this race isn't likely to change much until next Summer, as I expect polling here to continue to show a very close race between Rep. Roy Blunt (R) and Secretary Of State Robin Carnahan (D). This race will likely come down to just a couple of points either way, although if 2010 turns out to be a good year for the Republicans Blunt may have the edge.

2) (1) Delaware (Open, Kaufman-D) There has to be some very interesting political calculus going on in Delaware (and DC) as Attorney General Beau Biden (D) decides whether or not to run. Beau won't run unless his father gives him the green light, and the VP won't do so unless the President does as well. Is Obama willing to risk Beau losing the seat to literally the only person in Delaware who can beat him (Rep. Mike Castle)? For the sake of comparison, imagine the embarrassment if one of Dick Cheney's daughters lost a Senate race in Wyoming while Bush was President.

1) (2) Connecticut (Dodd-D) Dodd would practically be a lame duck if Fmr. Rep. Rob Simmons (R) didn't have such a tough Priamry. I still think Simmons is the favorite: his moderate voting record, his time in the military, his constituent service, and his political experience all argue in his favor. But Linda McMahon, the wife of WWE founder Vince McMahon, is clearly making her presence felt, and her essentially limitless bank account is a huge plus for her in the NYC media market.