Governor Rankings: November 2009

It seems like the races for Governor always take a back seat to the House and Senate races, but next year is going to be a very big year for Gubernatorial Elections. Of the 37 states that have races next year, I currently have 15 races as favored to be picked up by the opposing party. This is a staggering number, and really it's not hard to see more than 20 flipping from one side to the other side next year. Part of it is that there are many open seats in states that clearly favor the other party: the Republicans have to love the open seats in TN, KS, OK, and possibly WY, while the Democrats are thrilled about the open seats in CA, CT, VT, MN, HI, and RI. Meantime, many perennial battleground states like FL, OH, CO, PA, WI, and MI are looking at highly competitive races next year that also will play a huge role in redistricting after 2010. The races are ranked from least likely to turn over (#37) to most likely (#1), with NJ & VA dropping from last month's rankings.

37) (39) Nebraska (Heineman-R) The only question here is whether or not Heineman can top his 49-point victory from 2006.

36) (38) Utah (Herbert-R) No opposition on either side to Herbert, which isn't surprising as this is one part of the country where the economy is holding up (relatively) well.

35) (37) Arkansas (Beebe-D) Arkansas voters may not like Obama (37% approval rating here according to Rasmussen), and they're pretty divided over Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln (45% approval rating), but they love Beebe, who has a 69% approval rating.

34) (36) Alaska (Parnell-R) Parnell actually has some pretty decent challengers on both sides, namely Republican State House Speaker John Harris and Democratic State Sen. Hollis French. But I don't anticipate that either would pose much of a threat to the affable Parnell.

33) (33) Idaho (Otter-R) Otter still has the same smattering of little-known Primary challengers, but no one who will derail his chances of a 2nd term.

32) (34) New Hampshire (Lynch-D) Rasmussen's latest gives Lynch a 64% approval rating, which is always a great number, but particularly now when so few Governors are on solid footing.

31) (35) Maryland (O'Malley-D) Fmr. Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) continues to float his name out there as a possible candidate again, citing in part the strong showing Republicans had earlier this month across the Potomac. But it may just be a way to for Ehrlich to needle O'Malley a little bit (the two can't stand each other).

30) (31) South Dakota (Open, Rounds-R) The least competitive open seat is in South Dakota, where the popular Rounds looks like he'll be succeeded by either Lt. Gov. Dennis Dauggard (R) or State Senate Majority Leader Dave Knudson (R).

29) (30) Oregon (Open, Kulongoski-D) With Rep. Greg Walden (R) announcing last week that he won't run, it looks like the GOP candidate is going to be businessman Allen Alley, who lost by a close-ish 51%-45% for Treasurer last year. Meantime, the Democrats have the better-known candidates, where Fmr. Gov. John Kitzhaber is favored over Secretary of State Bill Bradbury.

28) (28) New Mexico (Open, Richardson-D) This state is not necessarily ranked so low because New Mexico is hopeless for the GOP, but the setup is just very favorable for the Democrats here. They have a clear heir apparent to Richardson in LG Diane Denish, while the GOP has a primary where a handful of little-known opponents will face-off in a contested primary.

27) (26) Illinois (Quinn-D) Primary day here is only two months away in Illinois, and both sides look likely to have competitive races. Quinn is being targeted in the Primary by Comptroller Dan Hynes, an up-and-comer who poses a real challenge to the incumbent. The GOP has a very crowded field, although Fmr. Attorney General Jim Ryan may be able to best separate himself from the pack as the best-known candidate.

26) (29) South Carolina (Open, Sanford-R) Whether removing Sanford from office is the right move or not, it probably hurts the GOP's chances of holding this seat. LG Andre Bauer is probably the only Republican who could lose this seat, and he would become Governor (and strengthen his hand in the Primary) if Sanford is removed.

25) (32) Texas (Perry-R) This race is starting to get really interesting, as Houston Mayor Bill White (D) appears to be on the cusp of switching from the Senate race to this one. All the while, it appeared the primary battle between Perry and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison wouldn't affect the GOP's chances of holding this seat. But White would probably be at least somewhat competitive against either, especially if the Primary gets as nasty as many expect.

24) (24) New York (Paterson-D) Last week's conflicting reports shed some light on this race, but a lot still needs to be sorted out. It certainly looks like Rudy Giuliani is out of this race, but the Democrats still need AG Andrew Cuomo to run to shore up their chances. It's virtually impossible to imagine Cuomo not running considering how bad Paterson's numbers are, though.

23) (23) Georgia (Open, Perdue-R) Fmr. Gov. Roy Barnes (D) is the best candidate the Democrats could ask for, but he's probably fighting a losing battle. When Obama ramped up black turnout here in November 2008, he only lost the state to McCain by 5 points and Jim Martin came within 4 points of Saxby Chambliss in the Senate race. But in off-year elections, when black turnout is lower, you get results like Perdue's 58%-38% re-election in 2006 and Chambliss' 57%-43% win in the December 2008 runoff.

22) (25) Massachusetts (Patrick-D) Rasmussen shows Patrick's approval rating continuing to tumble, and indeed it looks like we could have a real 3-way race on our hands here between Patrick, Treasurer Tim Cahill (I), and either Republican Christy Mihos or Charlie Baker. It'll be up to the Republican nominee and Cahill to really make a positive case for themselves rather than just running negatively against Patrick, otherwise they'll split the anti-incumbent vote.

21) (22) Maine (Open, Baldacci-D) A few candidates seem to be slowly separating themselves from the pack here, as State Senate President Libby Mitchell and Fmr. Attorney General Steven Rowe look like the Democratic frontrunners. On the Republican side, State Sen. Pete Mills and businessman Les Otten look like the leaders, but a lot of candidates still could make their mark. Baldacci's poor standing gives the GOP a decent chance here, and this is a race that is more immune to national factors than most other races.

20) (20) Alabama (Open, Riley-R) Not much new here, as Democratic Rep. Artur Davis remains the best-known candidate in the field. I think he may be this year's version of Harold Ford in 2006-a strong candidate who will run competitively for a while against a sluggish Republican field, but ultimately the state is likely too Republican for him to win.

19) (17) Nevada (Gibbons-R) I'm making a number of assumptions here by having the race ranked this low, but it does look like things are shaping up nicely for the GOP. It's tough to see how Fmr. Attorney General Brian Sandoval (R) doesn't beat Gibbons in the Primary, and polls are showing Sandoval a clear favorite over Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid (D). Things do get dicier for Sandoval if Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman runs as an Independent.

18) (19) Ohio (Strickland-D) Quinnipiac has Fmr. Rep. John Kasich (R) catching Strickland this month, as the state's sluggish economy seems to be catching up with the Governor. The good news for Kasich is that he's been out of Congress since 2001-innoculating him from the blame the Congress has taken this decade. The bad news is that he spent part of that time working for Lehman Brothers, and he'll need to make the case he cares about working class people and not rich bankers.

17) (21) Wisconsin (Open, Doyle-D) The entry of Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) definitely helps the Democrats' chances of holding this seat, as Doyle is deeply unpopular and Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton wouldn't have been much stronger. But Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R) is a strong candidate as well, and he should easily handle Fmr. Rep. Mark Neumann in the Primary. Polls show a Barrett-Walker matchup a virtual tossup.

16) (18) Florida (Open, Crist-R) In theory, this should be a pretty setup for the GOP-Florida has held up fairly well for them in recent years, and polls show Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) a bit ahead of CFO Alex Sink (D). But something doesn't seem quite right for the Republicans-perhaps it's McCollum's lackluster fundrasing, the fact that he's drawn a Primary challenge, or the state's floundering economy under Republican Gov. Charlie Crist. I'm splitting hairs here-the race will be within a couple of points either way-but don't be stunned if this is one close race that goes against the GOP.

15) (16) Iowa (Culver-D) I'd like to get some more confirmation on the polling here, as it's hard to believe Culver could be losing to 2006 LG Nominee Bob Vander Plaats and 20 points behind Fmr. Gov. Terry Branstad. But if Branstad officially gets in (he's "exploring" a bid right now), and polls keep showing those margins, then the race will move up.

14) (14) Michigan (Open, Granholm-D) I'm torn as to whether the GOP would be foolish to nominate Rep. Pete Hoekstra, who may to be too conservative to win, or if it won't matter because Lt. Gov. John Cherry (D) is so weak. But Hoekstra is faring significantly better in Primary polling than I would have thought, as he seems to be a few points ahead of Attorney General Mike Cox. Hoekstra's base in Western Michigan isn't nearly as populous as the Detroit area, but chances are he will thoroughly dominate the heavily Dutch Grand Rapids area.

13) (13) Colorado (Ritter-D) It always seemed like there were stumbling blocks for the GOP to take advantage of Ritter's weak approval rating. First, Fmr. Rep. Scott McInnis wouldn't officially run, then he had a tough Primary challenger in Josh Penry, then after Penry dropped out it looked like Fmr. Rep. Tom Tancredo would run, and finally both Penry and Tancredo wouldn't endorse McInnis. But now both Tancredo and Penry are out and have endorsed the former Congressman, who has been polling several points ahead of Ritter, making this a very good GOP pickup opportunity.

12) (11) Pennsylvania (Open, Rendell-D) The only poll of this race has AG Tom Corbett (R) ahead by double digits. He still faces strong opposition from Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) in the Primary, and in the General from Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, Auditor Jack Wanger, or Fmr. Rep. Joe Hoffel. But if NJ & VA taught us anything, a Republican with a law-and-order background does well in this part of the country.

11) (12) Arizona (Brewer-R) Rasmussen was out last week with a surprising poll showing controversial Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio as easily the strongest Republican candidate. Brewer can't beat Attorney General Terry Goddard (D), but she probably will win the Primary unless a single strong opponent emerges.

10) (10) Wyoming (Open?, Freudenthal-D) Freudenthal continues to hold out as to whether or not he will run for a 3rd term. But perhaps Republicans in the state know something, as high-profile candidates like State House Speaker Colin Simpson, Fmr. US Attorney Matt Mead, and Fmr. State Rep. Ron Miceli have formed exploratory committees.

9) (8) Vermont (Open, Douglas-R) The GOP has 6 very, very tough open seat defenses in blue states next year, but I think this may be their best chance to hold one. While Vermont may be the most Democratic state of the bunch, Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie (R) has a clear field and has won statewide before, while the Democrats are heading towards a tough Primary headlined by Secretary Of State Deb Markowitz and State Sen. Doug Racine.

8) (9) Minnesota (Open, Pawlenty-R) A Ramussen poll out a couple weeks back is helping us to sort out the Primaries a bit. On the Democratic side, Fmr. Sen. Mark Dayton fares well as the best-known candidate in the field, but Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak would likely be the class of the field if he runs. The GOP meantime is waiting on Fmr. Sen. Norm Coleman to make a decision, as he would be the runaway favorite in the Primary if he decides to run. If not, State House Minority Leader Marty Seifert might become the frontrunner.

7) (27) Connecticut (Open, Rell-R) Rell's decision not to run is another tough blow for the GOP, giving them another open seat in a deep blue state. It is widely believed that Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele (R) will run and have Rell's support, but his indecisiveness has Fmr. Ambassador Tom Foley thinking about a switch from the Senate race to the Governor race. On the Democratic side, Secretary Of State Susan Bysiewicz looks like the favorite in the Primary.

6) (7) California (Open, Schwarzenegger-R) With San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom (D) dropping out of the race, Attorney General Jerry Brown is free and clear to raise money and let the 3 Republicans beat each other up in the Primary. I'd like to see some confirmation from other pollsters before I buy Rasmussen's notion that Fmr. EBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) is dead even with Brown.

5) (5) Hawaii (Open, Lingle-R) It's entirely possible, perhaps likely, that Hawaii is too Democratic for the GOP to win here next year no matter what. That said, the GOP has to be pretty happy with the way this race is setting up, as Lingle is still pretty popular and Hawaii's economy is doing fairly well. Also, Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona (R) has an essentially clear field, while the Democratic Primary between Rep. Neil Abercrombie and Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann is scheduled for September 18th, just 6 1/2 weeks before Election Day.

4) (6) Tennessee (Open, Bredesen-D) Not much new to report here, but this is the part of the country where Obama is particularly unpopular. That makes it likely that the only question is which Republican will flip this seat, and the most likely candidate still appears to be Rep. Zach Wamp.

3) (4) Oklahoma (Open, Henry-D) Nothing new here, as Rep. Mary Fallin (R) will be a clear favorite over either AG Drew Edmondson (D) or LG Jari Askins (D).

2) (3) Rhode Island (Open, Cacieri-R) A recent poll showed Fmr. Sen. Lincoln Chafee (I) narrowly ahead, but Attorney General Patrick Lynch looks like the strongest Democrat. There could be some interesting dynamics there, as Lynch is pro-life, while Chafee, who was a Republican when he was in the Senate, is pro-choice (Update: In fact, Lynch is also pro-choice).

1) (1) Kansas (Open, Parkinson-D) SUSA's monthly check gives Sen. Sam Brownback (R) a 57% approval rating as he sails towards the Governorship.