University Of New Hampshire Poll conducted 6/24-7/1 of 558 adults, pdf here:
Rep. Paul Hodes (D) 41%
Fmr. Sen. John Sununu (R) 40%
Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) 39%
Rep. Paul Hodes (D) 35%
Rep. Paul Hodes (D) 40%
Fmr. Rep. Charlie Bass (R) 38%
The Sununu numbers are now meaningless, as he announced last week that he would not run for this seat, which didn't come as much of a surprise. Ayotte now seems like she would have the field basically to herself if she ran, and indeed she is expected to make a decision sometime in the near future. While some have pointed out the poll's oversampling of Republicans as a reason to debunk this poll (and the numbers do seem a bit out of whack), it still is worth noting for comparitive reasons: she would be the strongest candidate the GOP would run. And while I would hesitate to say she would be a favorite in Democratic-trending New Hampshire, she would start out the race with a stellar 45% favorable/8% unfavorable rating.
SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR HODES.
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