Quinnipiac OH-SEN: Dem. Primary and General Both Close

Quinnipiac Ohio Poll conducted 6/26-7/1 of 1259 RVs, including 483 Democrats and 445 Republicans:

Democratic Primary:

Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher 24%
Secretary Of State Jennifer Brunner 21%

Republican Primary:

Fmr. Rep. Rob Portman 33%
Auto Dealer Tom Ganley 10%

General Election:

Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) 37%
Fmr. Rep. Rob Portman (R) 33%

Secretary Of State Jennifer Brunner (D) 35%
Fmr. Rep. Rob Portman (R) 34%

Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) 36%
Auto Dealer Tom Ganley (R) 30%

Secretary Of State Jennifer Brunner (D) 35%
Auto Dealer Tom Ganley (R) 31%

The Democratic Primary still looks to be neck-and-neck at this point, with the two running even in just about every measure. Not only is the horserace a virtual tie, but the two have virtually identical favorable ratings among Democrats-Fisher is at 49%/6% while Brunner is at 46%/4%. The biggest difference between the two so far is money, with Fisher vastly outraising Brunner in the first quarter, which will need to change if Brunner's going to keep it this close. Portman probably should be further ahead of the unknown Ganley than he is, but he's in no danger of losing the Republican Primary.

The General Election numbers represent a significant tightening from the previous Quinnipiac poll, and show a race that really is wide open. Portman has plenty of room for growth, as 72% of Ohioans have no opinion of him, while about half have no opinion of the Democratic candidates. That's also borne out in the regional crosstabs-Portman beats both Democrats by 30 points in SW Ohio where he hails from (although this is the most Republican part of the state anyway), while running even or trailing in the rest of the state. The problem for him will be overcoming his two prominent positions in the Bush administration-Trade Representative and OMB Director.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS.