Tuesday, July 7, 2009

PPP VA-GOV: McDonnell Leads By 6

Public Policy Polling Virginia Poll conducted 6/30-7/2 of 617 LVs, pdf here:

Fmr. Attorney General Bob McDonnell (R) 49%
State Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) 43%

This is the first poll PPP has taken of the race (this year, at least) and it gives McDonnell a relatively comfortable advantage four months away from the General Election. The two previous polls were taken by Rasmussen and R2000 and showed a much closer race, or one where Deeds was narrowly ahead, but both were conducted during Deeds' primary bounce in the middle of June. The two candidates have very similar favorable ratings, and are pretty much known quantities: Deeds is at 48%/29% while McDonnell is at 51%/32%. Both candidates fare similary well among members of their own party, but McDonnell clobbers Deeds 54%-33% among Independents. The poll's composition shows relatively few African-Americans, Democrats, and younger voters, so the question could be whether or not those voters, who came out for Obama last year, will do so again in big numbers for Deeds. The poll suggests there could be a Republican sweep in Virginia this year: Republican Bill Bolling leads for Lt. Governor 46%-40% while Republican Ken Cuccinelli leads for Attorney General 45%-38%.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR McDONNELL.

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