IL-SEN: Kirk Has The Field To Himself (We Think)

After a bunch of conflicting reports on Friday and some weekend conversations, Illinois GOP Chairman Andy McKena made it clear yesterday that he won't run for the Senate, clearing the way for Rep. Mark Kirk (R). Kirk is expected to formally announce his campaign later this week. The question here is whether or not this snafu will hurt him next year. I think it depends on whether or not this becomes a pattern of behavior for Kirk-if he continues to appear timid or uncertain about his commitment to this race then he could have a real problem here. But at the same time, many successful Senate candidates last year (Kay Hagan, Jeanne Shaheen, and Tom Udall) were waffling on whether or not to run before getting their campaigns on track. I think the more interesting aspect of this race will be how Kirk's vote in favor of the cap-and-trade bill affects his standing with the Republican base-while there are relatively few conservatives nowadays in Illinois, Kirk will need as many of them as he can get in order to pull it out.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS.