M-D FL-SEN: Opponents Inch Closer, But Crist Way Ahead

Mason-Dixon Florida Poll conducted 6/24-6/26 of 300 Republicans and 300 Democrats for Primaries, and 625 RVs for General, pdf here:

Republican Primary:

Gov. Charlie Crist 51%
Fmr. State House Speaker Marco Rubio 23%

Democratic Primary:

Rep. Kendrick Meek 27%
Rep. Corrine Brown 12%

General Election:

Gov. Charlie Crist (R) 48%
Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) 26%

Gov. Charlie Crist (R) 55%
Rep. Corrine Brown (D) 24%

The numbers in the Republican Primary are getting some attention, as Rubio has cut into the deficit slightly compared to the previous iteration of this poll; he trailed by 35 last time and by 28 here. But the number really being touted by Rubio supporters is the fact it's a virtual dead heat of 33%-31% among voters who have heard of both candidates. The thinking is that once voters get to know Rubio, the race will be a toss-up. The problem with this logic though is that voters who know who Rubio is are more likely to be conservatives, who would be sympathetic to his cause. More concering for Crist is that his favorable rating among Republicans is just 49%/22%, with the rest saying they are neutral. But make no mistake about it: Crist's support of the stimulus package, especially if it has little visible impact before next year's primary, will really hurt him. Meantime, in the Democratic Primary, Meek holds a solid lead and whether Brown runs or not I think Meek will be the nominee.

The General Election numbers are slightly closer than last time beween Crist and Meek, with Crist's lead dropping from 31 points last time to 22. But Crist is still in no real jeopardy of losing to Meek, as he gets 28% of Democrats, and would get most of the 19% of Republicans who are undecided. Unfortnately, just like Rasmussen last week, Mason-Dixon did not test Rubio against Meek. But with Rubio's favorable rating at 18%/11% and Meek's at 11%/5%, a horserace matchup would probably favor Rubio slightly.

STRONG ADVANTAGE FOR THE REPUBLICANS.