Governor Rankings: April 2009

While we often put tallies on the balance of power in the House and Senate, very often the balance of power among our nation's 50 Governors is just as critical. As has been the case with every metric over the last few years, the Democrats have gained, flipping a 28-22 deficit in 2006 into their current 27-23 advantage. Many of the Governors also have a say in the key 2010 redistricting, so especially in big states and/or states that are expected to gain or lose House seats in the upcoming census, the Governorship is highly coveted. Two states (New Jersey and Virginia) have their seats up in 2009, while 36 more are up in 2010. And expect a lot of wide-open races, as at least 17 of the 38 Governorships will have no incumbent running. As with the Senate rankings, the races are ranked from least likely to change hands (#38) to most likely (#1). Feel free to add your own comments or questions (or voice your support for your favorite candidate!)

38) Nebraska (Heineman-R) Gov. Dave Heineman was elected to his first full term in 2006 by a 73%-24% margin. 'nuff said.

37) New Hampshire (Lynch-D) Few people gave Democrat John Lynch a shot against Republican Craig Benson in 2004, but he won in a 51%-49% upset. He's made the most of the opportunity, winning 74% of the vote in 2006 and 70% in 2008 (New Hampshire has two-year terms for its Governor).

36) Arkansas (Beebe-D) Don't be fooled by McCain's 20-point blowout of Obama last year-this state is still rock soild for the Democrats on the statewide level. PPP measured Democratic Gov. Mike Beebe's approval rating last month at 68% approve/20% disapprove.

35) Idaho (Otter-R) Gov. Butch Otter (R) didn't exactly win in a blowout in 2006, prevailing by just 53%-44%. But this is still Idaho we're talking about, and he should be safe for re-election.

34) Alaska (Palin-R) Alaska's got a bit of a reputation as an Independent-minded state (I suppose you have to be to live there), and that's certainly the case with its Governor. While voters in the lower 48 seem to have soured on Palin, she remains very popular in The Last Frontier.

33) Maryland (O'Malley-D) Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley's only concern would be a rematch against Fmr. Gov. Bob Ehrlich, who O'Malley beat by 7 points in 2006. If Ehrlich passes, O'Malley will be in great shape.

32) Illinois (Quinn-D) Democrats look like they'll be able to bounce back from the ugliness of the Rod Blagojevich situation, as new Gov. Pat Quinn seems fairly popular and ready to run for a full term next year. But it's possible he'll have a big-time primary challenger, as Attorney General Lisa Madigan has been showing some interest.

31) Connecticut (Rell-R) Despite being a Republican in deep-blue Connecticut, Rell remains quite popular due to her centrist governance and personal likability. But the Democrats have a legitimate challenger in Secretary Of State Susan Bysiewicz, who could capitalize if CT voters decide they're sick of Republican Governors (they've had one since 1995).

30) Texas (Perry-R) It might be tempting to think that Gov. Rick Perry's secession comments actually could help in a Republican Primary here, but Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison is a smart politican who will try to use this to paint Perry as out of the mainstream. Regardless of who wins the Republican Primary, the Democratic field of 2006 Independent candidate Kinky Friedman and former Ambassador Tom Schieffer isn't inspiring much confidence.

29) Massachusetts (Patrick-D) Quietly, Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick's popularity has plummeted in recent months, with SUSA measuring his approval rating at 28% in February and 27% in March. The GOP has two problems: 1) they have no obvious candidates, and 2) it's Massachusetts. Still, keep an eye on this one for a potential sleeper race.

28) Iowa (Culver-D) Mostly quiet in Iowa, as Gov. Chet Culver (D) retains solid approval ratings. Businessman Bob Vander Plaats is running for the Republicans, but he would have a tough time getting through a primary if Rep. Steve King (R) gets in.

27) South Carolina (Open, Sanford-R) I decided to rank this state here first, but as I started writing the commentary I realized this state could actually be a problem for the GOP next year. Term-limited Gov. Mark Sanford (R) isn't popular, and the state's economy is among the nation's worst. On the other side of the coin, Rep. Gresham Barrett, the only big-name Republican currently running, was booed at a tea party event for voting for the TARP money. Look for the Democratic candidates like State Sens. Vincent Shaheen and Robert Ford, to try to split the middle.

26) Oregon (Open, Kulongoski-D) The GOP seriously targetted Kulongoski in 2006, but he prevailed by 8 points. It seems unlikely that the Republicans will have the firepower here to compete after Obama's 17-point blowout here last year. That said, there isn't a glaringly obvious suceessor to Kulongoski on the Democratic side.

25) New Mexico (Open, Richardson-D) The Democrats could be hurt here by the scandals surrounding term-limited Gov. Bill Richardson, but with the state's Hispanic vote becoming more reliably Democratic, this is an uphill climb for any Republican. Lt. Gov. Diane Denish may have the Democratic field to herself, while the same trio of Republicans who were mentioned for the open Senate seat last year are being talked up again, namely former Reps. Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson along with State Commissioner of Public Lands Pat Lyons.

24) Colorado (Ritter-D) Bill Ritter's approval ratings have generally hovered between 50%-55% for his first term, putting him right on the border between a strong favorite and a vulnerable incumbent. The good news for Ritter is that his pro-life stance on abortion and his law-and-order background (he used to be the DA for Denver) make him tough to paint as far-left. He also benefits from the lack of an obvious Republican candidate, as the GOP bench in the state has been all but wiped out in recent years by Democrat gains here.

23) Maine (Open, Baldacci-D) There isn't a lot of out-of-state interest in this race, which isn't much of a surprise for a small state with no redistricting implications without any major media markets. But three of the last four races for Governor here have been close, with 3rd party candidates often playing a pivotal role. Each side has a ton of candidates who have been mentioned as possible choices, and with no statewide elected offices aside from the Governorship and two unbeatable Senators, look for a lot of candidates to get in on this one.

22) South Dakota (Open, Rounds-R) This one is simple: if Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) runs, this will be a top-tier pickup opportunity for the Democrats. If she passes, the Republicans will probably hold it easily, probably either with Lieutenant Governor Dennis Daugaard or State Senate Majority Leader Dave Knudson.

21) Georgia (Open, Perdue-R) This is a key Governorship in this rapidly growing state (it could be the 8th most populated in the country by the next census), and both sides are putting some impressive candidates in the race. For the Democrats, AG Thurbert Baker, Fmr. Secretary Of State David Pothyress, and State House Minority Leader DuBose Porter are running, with Fmr. Gov. Roy Barnes said to be considering it. The Republican field has been shaken up by the departure of LG Casey Cagle from the race, likely leaving the Republican Primary battle between Insurance Comssioner John Oxendnine and Secretary Of State Karen Handel; a SUSA poll this week showed Oxendine as the most well-liked candidate in the entire field.

20) Wisconsin (Doyle-D) There are no term limits in Wisconsin, and Gov. Jim Doyle (D) looks to be going full-speed ahead for a 3rd term next year. But after winning his first two terms by 4 and then 8 points, the Republicans seem certain to target him. Fmr. Rep. Mark Neumann seems interested, but ambitious Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker deferred to Rep. Mark Green in 2006 and may not defer again to Neumann.

19) Alabama (Open, Riley-R) Rep. Artur Davis (D) is trying to make history by being the first African-American Governor of Alabama, but he has compeition in the primary from State Agriculatural Commissioner Ron Sparks. The GOP field remains suprisingly weak so far with the best-known candidate being businessman Tim James, whose father Fob was Governor Of Alabama for two terms, most recently from 1995-1999.

18) Vermont (Doulgas-R) Like its neighbor to the east, New Hampshire, Vermont also has two-year terms for its Governor. And after winning 56% in 2006 and 53% in 2008, Douglas semes beatable, meaning Democrats may finally have a shot to win back the Governorship of Obama's 2nd best state. Democrats already have two big names in the race: Secreatry Of State Deb Markowitz and State Sen. Doug Racine, who lost by just 5871 votes to Douglas in 2002.

17) Florida (Crist-R) The question here is whether or not Crist runs for a 2nd term-he's unbeatable if he does. But with each passing day, he sounds more like a candidate for Senate, which would leave an open seat in this very highly coveted seat. Democratic CFO Alex Sink would likely have the primary to herself, while the GOP could be looking at a Primary between AG Bill McCollum and Agricultural Commissioner Charlie Bronson; a General would be very competitive.

16) New York (Paterson-D) Gov. David Paterson (D) may be the most unpopular Governor in the country right now, but a lot still needs to go right for the GOP to win here. They would need 1) Paterson to somehow get through the Democratic Primary, 2) Rudy Giuliani to run, and 3) Paterson to remain this unpopular for the next year and a half. Possible, but it's hard to see AG Andrew Cuomo (D) not running and blowing through the primary and general.

15) Ohio (Strickland-D) Polls seem to diverge on the popularity of Gov. Ted Strickland (D), but it appears he's popular enough to be favored but not popular enough to be considered safe. All signs point to Fmr. Rep. John Kasich (R) running, although he has yet to announce. Actually right now, State Sen. Kevin Coughlin is the only Republican in the race.

14) Arizona (Brewer-R) New Gov. Jan Brewer (R), who took over after Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano was appointed to be Homeland Security Secretary earlier this year, seems to taking heat on all sides. Democrats badly want to reclaim the Governorship of this fast-growing state that they argue is trending argue their way, while the GOP base isn't happy with the fact that Brewer is proposing tax increases. Keep your eye on three Democrats: Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon, businessman Jim Pederson, and Attorney General Terry Goddard.

13) Minnesota (Pawlenty-R) Minnesota Republicans desperately want Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) to seek a 3rd term, as he is probably the only Republican who can hold this seat. However, if Pawlenty has Presdiential ambitions in 2012, it's awfully dicey to go for a 3rd term and risk defeat that would no doubt end his Presidential aspirations. But even if he runs, he's little better than a 50/50 bet against a solid Democratic field that includes several veteran candidates.

12) Pennsylvania (Open, Rendell-D) Pennsylvania has a long history of alternating parties for its Governor every 8 years, so the GOP thinks that after Democrat Ed Rendell's 8 years as Governor end in 2010, that history is on their side. And the GOP has a strong candidate, as Attorney General Tom Corbett is running and impressively won re-election last year despite Obama's landslide in PA. But he doesn't have the primary field to himself, as Rep. Jim Gerlach and Fmr. US Attorney Pat Meehan are also running for the GOP. While the Democratic field is still taking shape, either Auditor Jack Wagner or Allegheny County Executive Dan Oranato would be very strong candidates.

11) New Jersey (Corzine-D) Gov. Jon Corzine has really seen his approval ratings take a tumble here in recent months, and the GOP thinks they may finally have a chance to break through after a string of frustrating losses in New Jersey. Fmr. US Attorney Chris Christie (R) is leading right now in both the the primary and the general, but it can't be overstated how heavily undecided voters break for the Democrat in the Garden State. One x-factor here is how much money Corzine, a former CEO of Goldman Sachs, has lost in the recent downturn and how that may affect his ability to finance his campaign. The primary here is less than two months away, on June 2nd.

10) Michigan (Open, Granholm-D) Talk about a critical Governorship-there may not be a bigger one than Michigan's in 2010. And Democrats have a fundamental problem here-the big 3's downturn has occured during the tenure of term-limited Gov. Jennifer Granholm. Lt. Gov. John Cherry has an early lead on the Democratic side, but his campaign seems to be struggling a bit to get out of the gate. The Republicans have 3 strong candidates in the race, but it looks like SOS Terri Land and Rep. Pete Hoekstra could split the Western Michigan vote and allow AG Mike Cox the chance to get through the primary.

9) Virginia (Open, Kaine-D) The Democratc Primary remains wide open, but former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe seems to have the momentum with his big fundraising and a potential scandal brewing for one of his rivals, former State Del. Brian Moran. However, polls consistently show McAuliffe lagging behind AG Bob McDonnell (R) in a General Election matchup. The primary is June 9th.

8) California (Open, Schwarzenegger-R) The gloves seem to be coming off on the Republican side, with Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner going after the business track record of fomer EBay CEO Meg Whitman. Meanwhile, the Democratic field seems to shaping up nicely for AG and former Gov. Jerry Brown, especially with LG John Garamendi announcing last week that he'll run for Congress instead of Governor.

7) Rhode Island (Open, Carcieri-R) This race certainly is complicated by the entry of Republican-turned Independent Lincoln Chafee, a former US Senator. No other candidates have declared so far, but the major question could be what type of candidate the GOP fields-if they don't put up much of a candidate, Chafee will probably win, if not, the Democratic nominee should be favored.

6) Wyoming (Open?, Freudenthal, D) Initially, it looked like Democratic Gov. Dave Freudenthal was term-limited in 2010. But now that seems less than certain, as some believe Freudenthal could challenge the validity of the term-limit law, and that he would win both the challenge and a 3rd term. But if he doesn't go through with it, the Democratic cupboard in bright-red Wymong is pretty much bare.

5) Oklahoma (Open, Henry-D) Hard to believe Obama's two best states have Republican Governors and McCain's two best have Democratic Governors, but such is the unpredictability of these races. The Democratic primary to replace term-limited Gov. Brad Henry (D) looks to be between Lt. Gov. Jari Askins and Attorney General Drew Edmondson, with Edmondson perhaps holding a slight edge. Rep. Mary Fallin (R) is probably the favorite right now, but the road gets more complicated for her if she gets company in the primary, from for example Fmr. Rep. J.C. Watts or State Sen. Randy Brogden.

4) Tennessee (Open, Bredesen-D) This is one of the few states that appears to be clearly trending the GOP's way, and this is a great pickup opportunity for the Republicans next year. The Democratic field seems fairly week, with Fmr. State House Majority Leader Kim McMillan probably the best-known Democratic candidate. Meanwhile, expect the Republican field seems to be geographically divided, so far Rep. Zach Wamp of Chattanooga, Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam, Shelby County Attorney Bill Gibbons of Memphis, and LG Ron Ramsey of the Tri-Cities are running.

3) Hawaii (Open, Lingle-R) Democrats can't wait for Gov. Linda Lingle (R) to be term-limited in 2010, so they can have a shot in a state that gave Obama 72% of the vote last year. Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona is the obvious Republican candidate, while the Democrats could wind up with half a dozen strong candidates in the race. That's probably Aiona's only chance-if the Democratic Primary gets too crowded and the winner gets a low percentage of the vote.

2) Nevada (Gibbons-R) Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) is horribly unpopular-both personally and politically (I'm still trying to figure out how he won in 2006). He can't win a General Election again, so who runs on the Democratic side almost seems irreveleant. The bigger question is whether or not Gibbons can win the Republican primary-if someone like former State Sen. Joe Heck or North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon can upend Gibbons in the Primary, the GOP has a shot, otherwise this will be a Democratic pickup.

1) Kansas (Open, Parkinson-D) Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) has been nominated to be HHS Secretary, and seems all but certain to be confirmed. That would leave current Lt. Gov. Mark Parkinson as the incumbent, but he has repeatedly insisted that he won't run for a full term in 2010. The bigger problem for the Democrats is that Sen. Sam Brownback (R) is coming home to Kansas to run for Governor, and while he isn't overwhelmingly popular, he's popular enough that it's extremely difficult to think of a scenario where a Democrat who could beat him.