It wasn't much after the 2004 elections that the GOP had a 55-44 majority in the Senate and were talking about getting to 60 seats in 2006. Less than four years later, it's the Democrats who want to get to the coveted 60 seats, which is important because filibusters can be broken with 60 votes. The current composition is 49-49, but both Independents are effectively Democrats, so we basically have a 51-49 Democratic majority. Democrats will widen that this year significantly; the only question is by how much. Let's break it down:
Alabama: This is one of the few Senate seats the GOP doesn't have to worry about this year, as polls show incubment Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) almost doubling up State Sen. Vivian Figures (D). Prediction: Sessions 63%-36%.
Alaska: Trying to think of something worse than being convicted a week before Election Day like Sen. Ted Stevens (R) was. Trying, trying, trying...let's just say it's good to be Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D). Prediction: Begich 51%-44%.
Arkansas: Sen. Mark Pryor (D) only has two opponents-and neither is a Republican. Prediction: Pryor wins with 85%.
Colorado: Sen. Wayne Allard (R) is retiring, giving the Democrats a good chance for a pickup in this increasingly Democratic state. You have to go back to the spring to find a poll that didn't show Rep. Mark Udall (D) leading Fmr. Rep. Bob Schaffer (R). Prediction: Udall 54%-44%.
Delaware: In the event he isn't elected Vice President, Sen. Joe Biden can come back to the Senate, as polls show him far ahead of political consultant Christine O'Donnell (R). Prediction: Biden 64%-35%.
Georgia: This is a race that really came out of nowhere to be competitive in the closing month or two, as for most of the cycle Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) was polling far ahead of Fmr. State Rep. Jim Martin (D). But the polls tightened dramatically in early October, however, the most recent polls show Chambliss with a little more breathing room. The catch here is that if Chambliss doesn't get to 50%, which is possible with Libertarian Allen Buckley consistently polling about 5%, we will have a runoff in December. I think Chambliss actually gets to 50%, but it's going to be very, very close. Prediction: Chambliss 50%-46%.
Idaho: Now-infamous Sen. Larry Craig (R) is retiring after his embarrassing "toe-tapping" incident in a Minneapolis restroom last year. The ugliness of that incident would hurt the GOP considerably in almost any other state, but this is Idaho. LG Jim Risch, after struggling a bit early on, is pulling away from Fmr. Rep. Larry LaRocco (D). Prediction: Risch 60%-35%.
Illinois: Durbin is far more concerned right now with the passing of his daughter over the weekend at the age of 40-condolences to him and his family. Prediction: Durbin 65%-34%.
Iowa: For the first time in his Senate career, Sen. Tom Harkin (D) was not seriously targeted by the GOP. Polls show him running way ahead of little-known businessman Chris Reed (R). Prediction: Harkin 60%-38%.
Kansas: During the early summer, Sen. Pat Roberts (R) briefly looked like he would have a competitive race against Fmr. Rep. Jim Slattery (D), but more recent polls show him pulling away. Prediction: Roberts 59%-39%.
Kentucky: Democrats would love to avenge the defeat of then-Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle four years ago by beating Sen. Mitch McConell (R-KY), now the Republican Senate Minority Leader. Polls showed businessman Bruce Lusnford (D) pulling even with McConnell around the time of the financial crisis, but four polls this week show McConnell regaining his footing, leading by an average of 6 points. Prediction: McConnell 54%-46%.
Louisiana: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) is really the only Democrat the GOP targetted this year, but polls have her shown her mainting a sizable lead over Treasurer John Kennedy (R). The biggest concern for Landrieu is the fact that McCain's cottails look sizable here, and Landrieu is going to need quite a number of McCain voters to win. An upset is possible, but Landrieu should win. Prediction: Landrieu 53%-47%.
Maine: Rather quietly, Sen. Susan Collins (R) is accomplishing something quite extrordinary this year, as she looks well on her way to beating a quality opponent in Rep. Tom Allen (D), despite Maine's increasing Democratic lean and the Democratic tidal wave in Senate races this year. Two polls out this weekend give Collins similar 15-point leads. Prediction: Collins 56%-43%.
Massachusetts: Sen. John Kerry (D) is up for re-election this year, and not surprisingly polls are showing him far ahead of Republican Jeff Beatty. Prediction: Kerry 62%-36%.
Michigan: Five-term Sen. Carl Levin (D) has raised plenty of money, and remains very popular in Michigan. He usually gets about 60% of the vote, and he should get something similar this year. Prediction: Levin 61%-37%.
Minnesota: This is a very tough race to call, as a lot of Minnesotans aren't happy with either Sen. Norm Coleman (R) or comedian Al Franken (D), allowing Fmr. Sen. Dean Barkley (IP) to consistly poll in the double digits. But Coleman seems to have the momentum, putting in impressive debate peformances, receiving the support of the liberal Minnapolis Star-Tribune, and pulling ahead in polls according to R2000, Rasmussen, and SUSA. Expect a really close race here. Prediction: Coleman 44%-42%.
Mississippi: No contest here, as popular Sen. Thad Cochran (R) should easily dispatch of State Rep. Erik Fleming (D), who lost 64%-35% to Trent Lott in 2006. Prediction: Cochran 63%-36%.
Mississippi (Special): When Lott resigned from the Senate late last year, GOP Gov. Haley Barbour appointed Rep. Roger Wicker (R) to fill Lott's Senate seat. Wicker is now running to serve out the rest of Lott's term, but he has faced a vigorous challenge from Fmr. Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D). The most recent polls, however, show Wicker pulling away, and he now seems likely to win. Prediction: Wicker 54%-46%.
Montana: Sen. Max Baucus (D) actually may be the conservative candidate in the race, as liberal attorney Bob Kelleher somehow won the crowded Republican Primary for this seat. PPP shows Baucus even winning a near-majority of Republicans. Prediction: Baucus 68%-29%.
Nebraska: Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel is taking a job in Obama's cabinet, whoops I mean retiring, but the GOP got a strong recruit here in Fmr. Gov. Mike Johanns. 2006 NE-03 candidate Scott Kleeb has a lot going for him, but Johanns is too strong and Nebraska is too Republican. Prediction: Johanns 57%-42%.
New Hampshire: We have a rematch of the 2002 contest between Republican John Sununu and Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, which Sununu won 51%-46%. But the national climate and New Hampshire itself have changed dramatically in the last six years, and those changes strongly favor Shaheen, a former Governor. Polls show Sununu within reach, but it's tough to see him pulling it out. Prediction: Shaheen 52%-46%.
New Jersey: Early on in the campaign, there were some concerns about Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D), who is 84 years old and would be 90 at the end of his next term. But he has deftly deflected those concerns, and Fmr. Rep. Dick Zimmer (R) hasn't raised nearly enough money to stand a real chance. Prediction: Lautenberg 56%-42%.
New Mexico: Patience is a virtue, and that proved critical in multiple ways for Democrats here. They have waited 36 years for Sen. Pete Domenici (R) to retire, and now that he finally did they have a great chance at a pickup. They also had to wait for Democratic Rep. Tom Udall to decide whether or not he wanted to run, but his decision to finally do so instantly made him the favorite. Republican Rep. Steve Pearce barely scraped by in a close primary against fellow Rep. Heather Wilson, and polls have shown nothing but double digit leads for Udall over Pearce here. Prediction: Udall 58%-40%.
North Carolina: Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) has run nothing short of a terrible campaign, and State Sen. Kay Hagan (D) is now on the odds-on favorite to pick up the seat for the Demorcrats. Dole has not connected well with voters of North Carolina, and when polls showed her regaining her footing against Hagan, she ran a widely-condemned ad tying Hagan to an atheist group. The most recent polling from over the weekend shows Hagan pulling away once again. Prediction: Hagan 52%-47%.
Oklahoma: State Sen. Andrew Rice (D) has run a game campaign, but the most recent polls show voters increasingly favoring incumbent Sen. James Inhofe (R). Prediction: Inhofe 55%-38%.
Oregon: Sen. Gordon Smith (R) has known from day one that he was going to have a tough race this year, as Republicans have been fading fast in Oregon lately. He has tried hard to position himself as a moderate Republican, with some success, but with Obama carrying the state by 15-20 points in the polls, the edge goes to State House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D). Prediction: Merkley 50%-44%.
Rhode Island: It doesn't get much more open-and-shut than a popular Rhode Island Democrat; Reed beat Republican Robert Tingle 78%-22% in 2002 and should beat him this time by something similar. Prediction: Reed 75%-25%.
South Carolina: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) has been shadowing John McCain every step of the campaign, an indication that he doesn't think there's much trouble in his race against engineer Bob Conley (D). There isn't. Prediction: Graham 56%-43%.
South Dakota: Sen. Tim Johnson (D) chose to run for re-election despite having a blood vessel in his brain burst in late 2006. That has put State Rep. Joel Dykstra (R) in a rather awkward position, and Johnson has polled far ahead. Prediction: Johnson 60%-40%.
Tennessee: Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) is very popular, and polls show him with wide leads over former TN Democratic Party Chariman Bob Tuke. Prediction: Alexander 61%-38%.
Texas: Polls have occasionally shown a tight race between Sen. John Cornyn (R) and State Rep. Rick Noriega (D), but Cornyn's massive financial advantage has proven too much for Noriega to overcome. Prediction: Cornyn 55%-43%.
Virginia: The race to replace retiring Sen. John Warner (R) was over the moment Fmr. Gov. Mark Warner (D) announced his candidacy. Polls show Warner (Mark, that is) crushing another former Governor of Virginia, Jim Gilmore (R). Prediction: Warner 60%-38%.
West Virginia: Here, we have a rematch of the 2002 race between Sen. Jay Rockefeller and former State Sen. Jay Wolfe (R). In 2002, Rockefeller won 63%-37%, and polls have shown something similar on tap for this year. Prediction: Rockefeller 60%-39%.
Wyoming: Republican Sen. Mike Enzi has been polling some 30 points ahead of professor Chris Rothfuss (D). Prediction: Enzi 65%-35%.
Wyoming (Special): Republican John Barasso was appointed to this seat last year after the death of Sen. Craig Thomas, but he appears to have caught on quickly with the like-minded Wyoming electorate. Polls have shown him faring simiarly to McCain and Enzi in the state. Prediction: Barasso 64%-36%.
By my predictions, the Democrats will gain 7 seats: AK, CO, NC, NH, NM, OR, and VA, widening their advantage from 51-49 to 58-42. This is a huge gain for one year, and a gain of 13 over the last two cycles is tremendous. It appears unlikely, but still possible, that they will get to the magic number of 60, however.
0 comments:
Post a Comment