Election Advantage's Final Predictions-House

After gaining a whopping 30 seats from the Republicans in 2006 and taking control of the House of Representatives, Democrats are in a great position to gain a similar number again this year. Democrats, who have already gained 3 seats from the Republicans this year in Special Elections, now have have a 235-199 majority in the House (effectively 236-199, as the heavily Democratic OH-11 is vacant but will be filled by a Democrat). Democrats are gaining seats for 3 major reasons: Obama's cottials are turning formerly Republican-leaning districts into Democratic-leaning seats, the Republicans have numerous retirements in competitive seats while the Democrats have virtually none, and a few scandals are plaguing specific Republicans (although not as many as 2006). I will not be so foolilsh as to try to guess margins here; I will just predict the winners. Without further adieu, here are the final Election Advantage predictions for the most competitive seats (those not listed are expected to stay with the incumbent party):

AL-02 (Dothan, Part Of Montgomery): Republican Rep. Terry Everett (R) is retiring, but few expected the Democrats to have a shot at this heavily Republican seat. But they got a strong recruit in Montgomery mayor Bobby Bright (D), a pro-life Democrat, and Republican State Rep. Jay Love (R) emegred wounded from a tough primary. Early polls gave Bright the lead, but more recent polls show this district's Republican lean giving the edge to Love. McCain's cottials should make the difference. Prediction: Love wins.

AL-03 (Auburn, Anniston, Part Of Montgomery): Polls show a tightening race here between Rep. Mike Rogers (R) and attorney Josh Segall (D), but Rogers appears likely to hold on. If Democrats win here, we're looking at a massive Democratic wave. Prediction: Rogers wins.

AL-05 (Huntsville): Rep. Bud Cramer (D) is retiring, giving the GOP a good opportunity to win this mostly conservative seat. Democrats originally looked to be in pretty good shape here, recruiting a stronger candidate in State Sen. Paker Griffith than the GOP did in advertising executive Wayne Parker. But Griffith has had some missteps, and McCain's cottails here should be substantial. Prediction: Parker wins.

AK-AL (All Of Alaska): The GOP probably could have held this seat if Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell had defeated incumbent Rep. Don Young (R) in the Republican Primary, but Young won by fewer than 300 votes. Polls show Young lagging behind Former State House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz (D). Prediction: Berkowitz wins.

AZ-01 (Prescott, Flagstaff, Winslow): Initially, it looked like the retirement of scandal-plauged Rep. Rick Renzi (R) would help Republican chances of holding this seat. But Republicans were unable to recruit a strong candidate, and State Mining Assoication Director Sydney Hay (R) is widely viewed as a poor candidate who is too conservative for this district. Meantime, Democratic State Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) has raised plenty of money and looks like a lock to flip this seat for the Democrats. Prediction: Kirkpatrick wins.

AZ-03 (Northern Phoenix): Democrats would love to oust Rep. John Shadegg (R), who is something of a conservative icon. But while attorney Bob Lord (D) is an able candidate, the district looks to be too Republican and Shadegg has raised too much money for Lord to win. Prediction: Shadegg wins.

AZ-05 (Tempe, Scottsdale): Democratic Rep. Harry Mitchell (D) looked to be a vulnerable incumbent this year after winning his first term in 2006. But Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert (R) had to spend most of his money on a close Republican Primary, and Mitchell now looks like a farily easy winner. Prediction: Mitchell wins.

AZ-08 (Part Of Tuscon): Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, considered by many a rising star, won this seat in 2006 when longtime moderate Republican Rep. Jim Kolbe retired. Republicans hailed State Senate President Tim Bee as a top recruit, but Bee lost Kolbe's endorsement earlier this year, and McCain doesn't have nearly the cottails here many thought he would. Prediction: Giffords wins.

CA-04 (Suburban Sacramento): This looked like an easy GOP hold when scandal-plagued Rep. John Doolittle announced his retirment. But State Sen. Tom McClintock (R) has by most accounts run a poor campaign, and 2006 nominee Charlie Brown (D) is using his military background as a way to connect with voters in this heavily Republican district. I think McCain's cottails here will save McClintock, but it will be close. Prediction: McClintock wins.

CA-11 (Stockton): Republicans initially thought that they had a good shot against freshman Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney, arguing that McNerney was too liberal for this district and that McNerney had won in 2006 primarily due to the scandals of then-Rep. Richard Pombo (R). But Former Assemblyman Dean Andal (R) has disappointed as a candidate, particulary in fundraising, and McNerney now looks on track for a 2nd term. Prediction: McNerney wins.

CA-50 (Part Of San Diego and Northern Suburbs): Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) first won this seat in a close 2006 Special Election, and after winning easily in November of that year, few figured he would be vulnerable in 2008. But attorney Nick Leibham (D) has raised plenty of money, and the 50th doesn't lean that strongly to the GOP. I think Bilbray hangs on, but an upset can't be ruled out. Prediction: Bilbray wins.

CO-04 (Fort Collins, Greeley): The 4th is usually Republican territory, but like the rest of Colorado, the district is rapidly trending Democratic. Not helping the GOP's cause is the very conservative Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R), who has been targeted by Democrats for her stances on social issues and the environment. Democrat Betsy Markey, a former top aide to Sen. Ken Salazar, looks like a winner. Prediction: Markey wins.

CT-04 (Bridgeport, Stamford, Greenwich): Rep. Chris Shays (R) is a survivor, winning by just 3 points in 2004 and by 4 points in 2006 in this Democratic-leaning district; in fact he is now the only Republican congressman in all of New England. Banking execuitive Jim Himes (D) has run a solid, if unspectacular campaign, but this race will be an early measure of how strong Obama's cottials are. Prediction: Himes wins.

FL-08: (Suburan Orlando): GOP Rep. Ric Keller is in major trouble here after narrowly surviving a primary challenge back in the summer. Attorney Alan Grayson (D) is not an outstanding candidate, but he's good enough to take advantage of Keller's lack of popularity and the rising number of Hispanic voters in the district. Expect a nailbiter here. Prediction: Grayson wins.

FL-13 (Sarasota, Bradenton): This was the controversial contest in 2006 where car dealer Vern Buchanan (R) was declared the winner over banker Christine Jennings (D) by less than 400 votes, despite the fact that it appeared there were errors with the voting machines. Polls have consistenly given Buchanan a healthy lead here, and he should win a 2nd term. Prediction: Buchanan wins.

FL-15 (Melbourne, Vero Beach, Kissimmee): Rep. Dave Weldon (R) is retiring in this potentially competitive Space Coast seat, but this is one of the few open seats where Republicans recruited better than Democrats. State Sen. Bill Posey (R) is a big favorite over physician Steve Blythe (D). Prediction: Posey wins.

FL-16 (West Palm Beach, Jupiter, Port Charlotte): This district has seen back-to-back races with scandal-ridden incumbents. First, it was Republican Mark Foley in 2006 who sent inappropriate IMs to underage House pages, and now it's Democratic Tim Mahoney with his admitted affairs. Maohney's opponent, attorney Tom Rooney (R), is one lucky man. Prediction: Rooney wins.

FL-18 (Miami, Coral Gables, Key West): Republican Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen represents a GOP-leaning district, and coupled with her moderate voting record, she has won easily in the past. She should win again this year, but businesswoman Annette Taddeo (D) is surprisingly competitive. Prediction: Ros-Lehtinen wins.

FL-21 (Hialeah, Suburban Miami): Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) has a real fight on his hands this year from former Hialeah mayor Raul Martinez. Polls show that this race could go either way, but this district looks a bit too Republican for Martinez to win, but it's tight. Prediction: Diaz-Balart wins.

FL-24 (Suburban Orlando): Rep. Tom Feeney (R) ran one ad apologzing for his ties to Jack Abramoff, and used 9/11 in another ad to attack his opponent, State Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D). Not exactly things you do when you're ahead, or even close to being ahead. Prediction: Kosmas wins.

FL-25 (Homestead): Just like his brother in the next-door 21st, Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) has a real contest this year against Democrat Joe Garcia, a former chairman of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party. You can basically flip a coin here, but McCain's cottials could make the difference with the race this close. Prediction: Diaz-Balart wins.

GA-08 (Macon, Warner-Robbins): Democratic Rep. Jim Marshall (D) just barely survived in 2006 by a 51%-49% margin. Retired USAF Major General Rick Goddard (R) is a good candidate, but Marshall is a very deft candidate and Obama should ramp up African-American turnout in a district that is about 1/3 black. Prediction: Marshall wins.

ID-01 (Couer D'Alene, Part of Boise): There are few Republicans who could lose this district, but Rep. Bill Sali (R) may be one of them. His very conservative ideology and abrasive personality has even turned off some in his own party, and Democratic businessman Walt Minnick has a shot at this one. I think McCain's cottails will save Sali, but it'll be awfully close. Prediction: Sali wins.

IL-10 (Waukegan, Glenview): Rep. Mark Kirk (R) has done everything right in this suburban Chicago district, but that may not matter in a year where Obama should easily win here. Democratic nominee Dan Seals fell short in 2006 53%-47% against Kirk, but I think this will be Seals' year. Prediction: Seals wins.

IL-11 (Joliet, Kankakee): Rep. Jerry Weller (R) is retiring, but Republicans struggled to recruit a strong candidate here, eventually setting on businessman Marty Ozinga. Meanwhile, Democrats consider State Senate President Debbie Halvorson a top recruit, and polls show her comfortably ahead. Prediction: Halvorson wins.

IN-03 (Fort Wayne, Elkhart): This district is heavily Republican, but Rep. Mark Souder (R) has never run up the big margins one would expect. And with Indiana becoming increasingly friendly to Democrats, attorney Mike Montagano (D) has a good shot here. With Indiana among the first states reporting, consider this an early belwether for how some of these close House races will go. Prediction: Montagno wins.

IN-09 (Clarksville, Bloomington): Republcian Mike Sodrel and Democrat Baron Hill have faced off in the last four elections here, with Hill winning the most recent contest in 2006. Polls show the race not nearly as close as the last few have been, with Hill up double digits. Prediction: Hill wins.

KS-02 (Topeka, Manhattan): Democratic Rep. Nancy Boyda won this seat in a major upset in 2006 when she beat Republican incumbent Jim Ryun. But the GOP may have dodged a bullet this year when Ryun lost narrowly in the Republican Primary to the more moderate Treasurer Lynn Jenkins. McCain is going to have cottials in this district, and Jenkins has shown she can win a close race. Prediction: Jenkins wins.

KS-03 (Kansas City, Lawrence): In a better year for the GOP, State Sen. Nick Jordan (R) would be a formidable opponent to Democratic Rep. Dennis Moore. But it's not, and a recent SUSA poll gave Moore an 11-point lead. Prediction: Moore wins.

KY-02 (Owensboro, Bowling Green): Rep. Ron Lewis (R) is retiring from this very conservative district, giving the Democrats a shot here. After early polls indicated a toss-up, recent polls show State Sen. Brett Guthrie (R) pulling away from State Sen. David Boswell (D). Prediction: Guthrie wins.

KY-03 (Louisville): The Republicans had high hopes that Rep. Anne Northup (R) would be able to win this seat back after losing narrowly in 2006 to Democrat John Yarmuth. Just about every recent public poll, however, shows Yarmuth up double digits. Prediction: Yarmuth wins.

LA-06 (Baton Rouge): Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) won this seat in a Special Election earlier this year when Rep. Richard Baker (R) resigned. Cazayoux's a good candidate, but Republican nominee Woody Jenkins may have lost the seat as much as Cazyoux won it. Cazyoux now has to fight a two-front war: State Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) doesn't have Jenkins' baggage, and African-American State Rep. Michael Jackson (no, not that Michael Jackson) is running as an Independent and is going to pull votes from Cazayoux. Throw in what should be a comfortable McCain victory in the district, and the numbers don't add up well for Cazyoux. Prediction: Cassidy wins.

MD-01 (Baltimore Suburbs, Eastern Shore): Conservative state Sen. Andy Harris defeated moderate incumbent Rep. Wayne Gilcherst (R) in the Republican Primary earlier this year, but initially it looked like this heavily Republican district would easily go for Harris. But Queen Anne's County Attorney Frank Kratovil (D) is running a great campaign, raising plenty of money and even winning Gilchrest's endorsement. Ultimately, though, I think this district is too Repubclian for Kratovil to win, but it's close. Prediction: Harris wins.

MI-07 (Jackson, Battle Creek): Conservative Rep. Tim Walberg (R) first won this seat in 2006 by beating moderate Rep. Joe Schwarz in the Republican Primary. In the general, however, he barely edged by a little-known opponent. He has formidable opposition this time, though, from Democratic State Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer, and with McCain giving up on Michigan, this district looks likely to go Democratic. Prediction: Schauer wins.

MI-09: (Pontiac): This highly competitive district in suburban Detroit has routinely elected Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R) for 16 years, but a Democratic wave is building in Michigan. The likely beneficiary is former State Sen. Gary Peters (D), who has polled even or ahead of Knollenberg, with the incumbent sitting around 40%. Prediction: Peters wins.

MN-03 (Suburban Minneapolis): Popular moderate Rep. Jim Ramstad (R) easily held this seat despite the fact that the seat has been trending Democratic now for some time. With his retirement, though, Democrats have a good shot at this seat. Polls have gone back and forth between State Rep. Erik Paulsen (R) and attorney Ashwin Madia (D), and this race could go either way. A SUSA poll out yesterday gave Paulsen a 5-point lead, so I'll pick him, but expect the race to be within a couple points either way. Prediction: Paulsen wins.

MN-06 (St. Cloud, Blaine): Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) was probably headed for a pretty easy victory against former Blaine mayor Elwyn Tinklenberg, before two weeks ago she called Obama "anti-American" on Hardball. Polls showed the race tightening considerably, but the outrage towards her has faded some in the weeks since the incident occurred. Prediction: Bachmann wins.

MO-06 (Kansas City Suburbs, St. Joseph): Democrats intially were excited about the candidacy of former KC mayor Kay Barnes (D), but Rep. Sam Graves (R) has run an outstanding campaign, and recent polls show him pulling away. Prediction: Graves wins.

MO-09 (Columbia, St. Charles): With Rep. Kenny Hulshof (R) running for Governor, Democrats seem to have a good shot at this mostly conservative district. State Rep. Judy Baker (D) has been polling a bit behind Fmr. State Rep. Blaine Leutkmeyer (R), though, and she looks a little too liberal to win this seat. Prediction: Leutkmeyer wins.

NE-02 (Omaha, Bellevue): This race has caught just about everyone off guard, but it's now clear that Rep. Lee Terry (R) has a real fight on his hands. His opponent is Democrat Jim Esch, who lost to Terry by a respectable 55%-45% in 2006. This race has tightened considerably in recent days and weeks, but McCain's cottails here should save Terry. Prediction: Terry wins.

NV-02 (Reno, Carson City): Rep. Dean Heller (R) won the open seat here in 2006 against Democrat Jill Derby, but his 50%-45% margin was closer than people had expected. Heller is challenging him again this year, and Democrats argue that massive Democratic gains in registration could tip the race to Derby. A Mason-Dixon poll over the weekend, however, showed Heller up double digits, so it's tough not to pick him. Prediction: Heller wins.

NV-03 (Suburban Las Vegas): Rep. Jon Porter (R) is in for the fight of his life against Democratic State Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus, who came up just short in a run for Governor two years ago. Polls have shown the race very close here, but most of the democgraphic changes in this rapidly-growing district seem to favor Titus. Prediction: Titus wins.

NH-01 (Manchester, Portsmouth): Rep. Jeb Bradley's (R) loss to Democrat Carol Shea-Porter was one of the biggest upsets of 2006, and Bradley is back for a rematch this year. His tough primary, however, may have cost him: polls conducted before the primary gave the edge to Bradley, while more recent polls show Shea-Porter leading. Prediction: Shea-Porter wins.

NJ-03 (Cherry Hill, Burlington, Toms River): This is an example of a competitive seat that the GOP easily held until recently due to the popularity of the longtime incumbent. But with Rep. Jim Saxton (R) retiring this year, Democrats have a good chance at a pickup. Polls have been back and forth between State Sen. John Adler (D) and Medford Township Mayor Chris Myers (R). The race should be very close, but it's tough not to give the edge to the well-funded Adler. Prediction: Adler wins.

NJ-05 (Paramus, Vernon, Phillipsburg): This district usually leans Republican, but Rep. Scott Garrett (R) may be too conservative even for this district. Polls show him leading, but rabbi Dennis Shulman (D) is closing fast. Prediction: Garrett wins.

NJ-07 (Westfield, Hillsboro, Scotch Plains): Democratic Assemblywoman Linda Stender came within a 49%-48% margin of defeating Republican Rep. Mike Ferguson (R) in 2006. Stender is back this year, but Ferguson isn't, as he is retiring after four terms. But Republicans contend that State Sen. Leonard Lance (R) is actually a stronger candidate, due to his likability and moderate voting record. I concur. Prediction: Lance wins.

NM-01 (Albuquerque): Rep. Heather Wilson (R) is not running for re-election after unsuccesfully running for the US Senate, and this perenially competitive district will be close once again this year. Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White (R) is probably a better candidate than Albuquerque City Councilman Martin Heinrich (D), but in a year like this close open seats are probably going Democratic. Prediction: Heinrich wins.

NM-02 (Las Cruces, Roswell): Rep. Steve Pearce (R) is giving up this seat to run for the Senate, and initially it looked like he would be replaced by another Republican. But Democratic businessman Harry Teague has held a small lead over businessman Ed Tinsley (R) for much of the race, and Tinsley has inexplicably been off the air in recent days. Prediction: Teague wins.

NY-13 (Staten Island, part of Brooklyn): Disgraced Republican Rep. Vito Fossella (the one of DUI and multiple family fame) isn't running again, but things are so bad for the GOP here they might have been better off had Fossella run again. Former Assemblyman Robert Strainere (R) has run a terrible campaign, and NYC Councilman Mike McMahon (D) is going to cruise into Congress next year. Prediction: McMahon wins.

NY-25 (Syracuse): Probably the only Republican who could hold this seat for the GOP is Rep. James Walsh, and he's retiring. Former congressional aide Dan Maffei, who barely lost to Walsh in 2006, has vastly outraised and outpollled Republican Dale Sweetland, a former Chariman of the Onondoga County Legislature. Prediction: Maffei wins.

NY-26 (Suburban Rochester and Suburban Buffalo): Rep. Tom Reynolds (R) was once considered a GOP rising star, but that star dimmed dramatically in 2006 when he headed the disastrous NRCC effort, nearly losing re-election himself. With his retirment this year, the GOP probably will have an easier time of it, with businessman Chris Lee (R) polling comfortably ahead of attorney Alice Kyrzan (D). Prediction: Lee wins.

NY-29 (Elmira, Corning): This is the most Republican district in New York, but Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) barely won in 2006 against Democrat Eric Massa, 52%-48%. Massa is running again, and with McCain struggling in the district and Kuhl putting his foot in his mouth recently, Massa is in good shape to flip this seat. Prediction: Massa wins.

NC-08 (Fayetteville, Concord, part of Charlotte): Rep. Robin Hayes (R) barely defeated teacher Larry Kissell in 2006, prevailing by just over 300 votes. The district is trending Democratic, though, and with Obama likely to carry the district and Democrats putting in more of an effort than they did two years ago, this looks like a Democratic pickup. Prediction: Kissell wins.

OH-01 (Cincinnati): Rep. Steve Chabot (R) was in a toss-up race two years ago, but won 52%-48%; he's in a similar position this year against State Rep. Steve Drieahus (D). The difference maker in this district, which is almost 30% black, could be Obama turning out new African-American voters. Expect a nailbiter here. Prediction: Chabot wins.

OH-02 (Suburban Cincinnati): This is very Republican territory, but Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) tends to make things much more difficult for herself than they should be by frequently making controversial comments. She barely beat Dr. Victoria Wulsin (D) in 2006, 51%-49%, and this year we will have a rematch between the two. Schmidt has been polling ahead, but not by so much that we can rule out an upset. Prediction: Schmidt wins.

OH-07 (Springfield, suburban Columbus): Rep. Dave Hobson (R) is retiring from this mostly Republican seat this year. The GOP candidate is State Sen. Steve Austria, a good candidate, but Democrats actually didn't recruit very well here, and attorney Sharon Neuhardt (D) probably doesn't stand much of a chance against Austria. Prediction: Austria wins.

OH-15 (Columbus): Rep. Deborah Pryce (R) is retiring, perhaps not wanting another tough re-election battle after barely defeating Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D) in 2006. State Sen. Steve Stivers (say that three times fast) is the Republican candidate, and he's a good candidate, but the district is probably trending Democratic too quickly for Stivers to win. Prediction: Kilroy wins.

OH-16: (Canton, Wooster): Rep. Ralph Regula (R) is retiring from this competitive seat after over 30 years in the House. By almost any measure, State Sen. John Boccierri (D) is a better candidate than State Sen. Kirk Schuring (R), and the GOP hasn't put up much of a fight here. Prediction: Boccierri wins.

PA-03 (Erie): Rep. Phil English (R) faces a vigorous challenge this year from Lake Erie Arboretum Director Kathy Dahlkemper (D). English hasn't faced a serious challenge since he was first elected in 1994 to replace Tom Ridge in Congress, and he almost seems caught off guard by how close this race is. Polls give Dahlkemper the edge, and so will I. Prediction: Dahlkemper wins.

PA-04 (Suburban Pittsburgh): Rep. Jason Altimire (D) upset the incumbent Republican Melissa Hart in 2006 52%-48%, and the GOP hailed their recruitment of Hart as the best way to get this seat back. But Altmire has compiled a moderate voting record, especially on social issues, and polls show him with a substantial lead. Prediction: Altmire wins.

PA-10 (Williamsport, suburban Scranton/Wikes-Barre): Democrat Chris Carney won this heavily Republican seat in 2006 primarily due to the scandals surrounding then-Rep. Don Sherwood (R). But Carney has made the most of the opportunity, compiling a moderate voting record, while Republican businessman Chris Hackett has struggled to recover from a close primary. Recent polling shows Carney pulling away. Prediction: Carney wins.

PA-11 (Scranton, Wilkes-Barre): This is generally Democratic territory, but Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) has had a number of personal scandals and looks like he's on the brink of defeat against Republican Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta. Literally as I type this, I'm just seeing a new SUSA poll showing Barletta leading 51%-45%. Prediction: Barletta wins.

PA-12 (Johnstown, suburban Pittsburgh): Rep. John Murtha (D) actually has a pretty moderate voting record (hence why it was such a big deal when he came out against the Iraq War), and he has easily held this seat since 1975. But calling your constituents racists and rednecks shortly before Election Day isn't exactly a great campaign strategy, and businessman William Russell (R) has raised plenty of money. It's tough to pick against Murtha, but an upset is possible. Prediction: Murtha wins.

SC-01 (Charleston, Myrtle Beach): Rep. Henry Brown (R) hasn't had much trouble holding this mostly Republican seat since he first won it in 2002. But he's made some mistakes, and businesswoman Linda Kentner (D) is gaining fast. McCain's cottails should save Brown, but it could be quite close. Prediction: Brown wins.

TX-07 (Western suburbs of Houston): Rep. John Culberson's West Houston district is heavily Republican, but Democrats have gained here considerably in recent years. Businessman Michael Skelly (D) has raised a boatload of cash, but he's likely to come up short in a district that McCain should carry by a wide margin. Prediction: Culberson wins.

TX-10 (NW sururbs of Houston, part of Austin): Rep. Mike McCaul (R) doesn't have many obvious flaws as a candidate, but he has never put up the strong numbers one would expect from this heavily Republican district. McCaul also faces a quasi-celebrity in attorney Larry Joe Doherty (D), who appears on the show Texas Justice. McCaul should win, but polls are showing it close. Prediction: McCaul wins.

TX-22 (Southern Houston Suburbs): This is Former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay's old seat, that former Rep. Nick Lampson (D) basically stumbled into due to a Republican ballot snafu back in 2006. But the GOP has a quality candidate this year in Pete Olson, a former Chief Of Staff to Senator John Cornyn, and a Republican without an obvious flaw should win in this district just about every time. Prediction: Olson wins.

TX-23 (Part Of San Antonio, Rio Grande Valley). Democratic Rep. Ciro Rodriugez won this seat in 2006, besting Republican Henry Bonilla in a December runoff. The GOP has a good candidate this year in moderate Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson, and McCain should carry the district. But court-ordered redistricting made the seat much less Republican, and Rodriguez has to be considered a small favorite. Prediction: Rodriguez wins.

VA-02 (Virginia Beach, Part of Norfolk) Rep. Thelma Drake (R) barely survived in 2006, 51%-49%, but polls show her faring a little better against businessman Glenn Nye (D). Prediction: Drake wins.

VA-05 (Charlottesville, Bedford, Danville): Wow has GOP Rep. Virgil Goode's lead evaporated fast, from more than 30 points during the summer to just 3 points in a SUSA poll released today. Attorney Tom Perriello (D) has run a good campaign, and should benefit from increased turnout at UVA, which is in this district. I think Goode will hang on, but it's getting closer by the day. Prediction: Goode wins.

VA-10 (Manassas, Sterling, Winchester): Longtime Rep. Frank Wolf (R) is seeing his exurban district in Northern Virginia trend Democratic, but Georgetown University professor Judy Feder may be a little too liberal for this district. Wolf beat Feder in this district 57%-41% two years ago. Prediction: Wolf wins.

VA-11 (Most of Fairfax and Prince William Counties): This district is at the core of Virginia' s Democratic trend, and probably the only Republican who could win this seat is retiring Rep. Tom Davis (R). Businessman Keith Fimian (R) has run a good campaign, but Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman Gerry Connolly (D) looks very tough to beat. Prediction: Connolly wins.

WA-08 (Eastern Seattle suburbs): This race is a rematch of the 2006 contest between Rep. Dave Reichert (R) and Microsoft Executive Darcy Burner (D), which Reichert won 51%-49%. This race should be similarly close again, but Obama's cottails could tip the race to Burner. Prediction: Burner wins.

WI-08 (Green Bay, Appleton) This is another rematch, with Rep. Steve Kagen (D) facing former State Assembly Speaker John Gard (R); Kagen won 51%-49% in 2006. Gard looked like he had a good shot here a month or two ago, but indications are that Kagen has taken a significant lead. Prediction: Kagen wins.

WY-AL (All of Wyoming) The GOP is fortunate that unpopular Rep. Barbara Cubin (R) is retiring, as she had never won as easily as she should given the fact that we're talking about Wyoming here. She nearly lost in 2006 to Democrat Gary Trauner, who is running again this year. Fmr. State Treasurer Cynthia Lummis (R) and Trauner were polling competitively for much of the race, but Lummis now appears to be pulling away. Prediction: Lummis wins.

If I counted right, the Democrats gained 25 seats: AK-AL, AZ-01, CO-04, CT-04, FL-08, FL-24, IL-10, IL-11, IN-03, MI-07, MI-09, NV-03, NJ-03, NM-01, NM-02, NY-13, NY-25, NY-29, NC-08, OH-15, OH-16, PA-03, VA-11, and WA-08.

The Republican gains are easier to count; there are six: AL-05, FL-16, KS-02, LA-06, PA-11, and TX-22.

This gives the Democrats a net pickup of 19 seats, so they would widen their margin in the House from 236-199 to 255-180.