Election Advantage's Final Predictions-Governor

The races for Governor in Presidential Election years fly under the radar, understandably, but there are still some very good races out there. There are also major implications in these races for 2012 redistricting, making Governorships of states like Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina highly coveted. Here are my final predictions for these races:

Delaware: Gov. Ruth Ann Minner (D) is term-limited, so we have an open seat this year. Minner is not very popular, and her endorsement of Lieutenant Governor John Carney may have cost him the Democratic Primary, where he lost narrowly to Treasurer Jack Markell. Retired judge Bill Lee will be the Republican candidate, and even though he lost only narrowly to Minner four years ago, polls are indicating the race won't be nearly as close this time. Prediction: Markell 62%-36%.

Indiana: This is one of the few races on any level where the outlook has improved for the Republicans in recent months. Many observers believe that Fmr. Rep. Jill Long Thompson (D), who won the Democratic Primary by just 51%-49% over architect Jim Schellinger, was actually the weaker candidate to go against incumbent Gov. Mitch Daniels (R). Polls during the spring showed the race too close to call, but more recent polls show Daniels opening up a huge lead. Prediction: Daniels 57%-41%.

Missouri: Gov. Matt Blunt (R) has struggled in four years as Governor, and Republicans initially hailed his decision to not run again as their best hope of holding the Governor's mansion. However, Rep. Kenny Hulshof (R) has struggled after only narrowly winning the Republican Primary over Treasurer Sarah Steelman, and the Democratic candidate, Attorney General Jay Nixon, remains very popular. Expect a Democratic pickup. Predicition: Nixon 55%-44%.

Montana: Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer's win here in 2004 was the start of the recent Democratic trend in the state, and the charismatic Governor remains very popular. He should easily win a 2nd term over State Sen. Roy Brown (R). Prediction: Schweitzer 59%-40%.

New Hampshire: I could pretty much repeat the same thing that I said for Montana here, except this time the popular Governor is Democrat John Lynch. Polls show him running very far ahead of State Sen. Joe Kenney (R). Prediction: Lynch 66%-34%.

North Carolina: This is probably the Governor's race to watch this year, as Democratic Gov. Mike Easley is term-limited. This has been a back-and-forth battle between Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue (D) and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R), with polls routintely alternating leads between the two candidates. Perdue should benefit from Obama's focus on the state, but polls show McCrory faring better among Independents than any other Republican on the ballot. Expect a nailbiter. Prediction: McCrory 50%-48%.

North Dakota: Gov. John Hoeven (R) is seeking a 3rd four year term, which is unprecedented in recent North Dakota history. But Hoeven is among the most popular Governors in the country, and he should have no trouble against State Sen. Tim Mathern (D). Prediction: Hoeven 68%-30%.

Utah: It doesn't get much safer than a very popular Republican in Utah. Gov. Jon Huntsman (R) will very, very easily beat businessman Bob Springmeyer (D). Prediction: Huntsman 75%-22%.

Vermont: Despite Vermont's increasing embrace of Democratic candidates, moderate Republican Gov. Jim Douglas (R) remains fairly popular. However, this is a tough race to predict for a couple of reasons. First, Independent candidate Anthony Pollina is pulling a sizable chunk of the vote, and there's a chance he could even outrun State House Speaker Gaye Symington (D). However, by law, if Douglas doesn't get to 50% (possible with a strong 3rd party candidate), the decision would then go the Democratic-controlled legislature, of which Symington is Speaker. I think Douglas just gets over 50%, but it'll be close. Prediction: Douglas wins with 53%.

Washington: This is a rematch of the contoversial 2004 race for Governor, which even four years later still angers many state Republicans. Election Day voting very narrowly favored the Republican candidate, State Sen. Dino Rossi, but recounts wound up giving the race to Attorney General Christine Gregoire (D) by 129 votes. Rossi is back for a rematch, and polls have consistently shown the race within a point or two either way. With Obama's cottails, I think Gregoire has just a slight edge. Prediction: Gregoire 50%-48%.

West Virginia: No contest here, as Gov. Joe Manchin (D) is West Virginia's kind of Democrat: pro-life, pro-gun, but also pro-union. Fmr. State Sen. Russ Weeks (R) doesn't stand a chance. Prediction: Manchin 69%-30%.

Democrats currently have a 28-22 lead in Governorships; I predict Missouri to flip to the Democrats and North Carolina to flip to the Republicans, which would leave the Democrats still with a 28-22 advantage. Next up...predictions for the House races.