SUSA FL-21: Jump Ball In Normally Republican Seat

SurveyUSA FL-21 Poll conducted 8/24-8/26 of 632 LVs:

Former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez (D) 48%
Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) 46%

This race continues to look tighter and tighter, as initially this race wasn't even on anyone's radar screen. But Martinez is a big-time recruit for the Democrats, a popular but sometimes controversial mayor of the district's largest city. The key is that Martinez leads 55%-38% among Indepdents, whom the moderate Diaz-Balart has often been able to attract throughout his career. There's bad news for McCain here as well: he only ties Obama, 48%-48%, here in a district that Bush carried by 14 points in 2004. One note of caution is that this poll may underestimate the Republicans' support: this district is 70% Hispanic, but this sample only has a sample that is 51% Hispanic; Diaz-Balart leads among Hispanics by a 65%-31% margin.

Significant►SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR DIAZ-BALART.