Wisconsin House Races

For those of you who are among my new readers, I am covering all 435 House races being held across the country this year, as each state's filing deadline passes. Here is a look at Wisconsin.

Wisconsin has non-partisan redistricting, but despite the state going from 9 Congressional Districts to 8 in the 2002 redistricting, there was little discord. The map drawn at the time was intended to create 4-4 tie, with all 8 of the seats secure for the incumbent primary. And none did change hands until 2006, when the Democrats picked up the open 8th district seat in a very close race. That seat is going to see a rematch this year; the other 7 seats should stay 4-3 Democratic.

WI-01 (Rep. Paul Ryan, R) 2004 Vote: Bush 54%-46%. This seat looks potentially competitive, but Ryan is a very strong incumbent. First elected in 1998 at age 28, he has won his last four re-elections with at least 63% of the vote. 3 Democrats are running this year: engineer Marge Krupp, teacher Paulette Garin, and businessman Steve Herr. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR RYAN.

WI-02 (Rep. Tammy Baldwin, D) 2004 Vote: Kerry 62%-37%. Baldwin won her first two terms with only 53% and 51% of the vote, but since then her margins in this Madison-based district have approached 2-to-1. Expect a similarly large victory for her this year against businessman Dave Redick. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR BALDWIN.

WI-03 (Rep. Ron Kind, D) 2004 Vote: Kerry 51%-48%. Kind is sort of the Democrats' version of Paul Ryan, able to turn an otherwise marginal seat into a safe one. He won by only 52%-48% when he was first elected in 1996, but has otherwise won pretty comfortably. And it will be particularly comfortable this year, as Kind has no GOP opposition. OVERWHELIMING ADVANTAGE FOR KIND.

WI-04 (Rep. Gwen Moore, D) 2004 Vote: Kerry 70%-30%. Based in Milwaukee, this is easily the most Democratic district in the state; Moore has no Republican opposition this year. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR MOORE.

WI-05 (Rep. James Sensenbrenner, R) 2004 Vote: Bush 63%-36%. First elected in 1978, Sensenbrenner is safe in this heavily Republican district. Especially because he has no Democratic opposition. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR SENSENBRENNER.

WI-06 (Rep. Tom Petri, R) 2004 Vote: Bush 56%-43%. Petri and Sensenbrenner, from neighboring districts, were first elected together in 1978. Petri is expected to easily defeat dairy marketing specialist Roger Kittelson (D). OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR PETRI.

WI-07 (Rep. David Obey, D) 2004 Vote: Kerry 50%-49%. Obey is one of the most senior members of Congress, having first been elected in 1968. And although this district is pretty evenly divided, his long service has allowed him to win here by big margins. His opponent this year is farmer Dan Mielke. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR OBEY.

WI-08 (Rep. Steve Kagen, D) 2004 Vote: Bush 55%-44%. Rep. Mark Green had held this seat easily for the GOP until he vacated it to run for Governor in 2006. Then Kagen, a doctor, picked up this seat 51%-49% in a bit of an upset over Republican John Gard, who was initially a better known candidate from his time as the Speaker of the Wisconsin Assembly. Expect this race to be close again, but with the Democratic leanings of this year, Kagen is the favorite. Slight►SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR KAGEN.