New York House Races

This is the latest state in my coverage of all 435 House races. Check the link near the top left of the page for previous editions.

With little population growth, New York has seen a loss in its number of Congressional Districts at the time of each of the last several censuses. In 2002, the state had to trim its districts from 31 to 29, and with a Republican Governor and State Senate and a Democratic Assembly, it took quite a while for both sides to find an acceptable map. When they finally did, the map was drawn with an 18-11 Democratic majority in mind, not bad for the GOP in such a heavily Democratic state. But with the NYC suburbs and Upstate trending Democratic in recent years, it has been shown just how tenuous of a hold the GOP had on those 11 seats. Democrats gained a Long Island seat in 2002, a Buffalo-based seat in 2004, and 3 more in 2006 to bump their majority to 23-6. Scandal was in large part responsible for the loss of two of those five seats, and scandal is putting in jeopardy the long-Republican Staten Island seat, and as many as 3 other Republican seats are in play this year as well. It's unlikely, but far from impossible, that the Democrats could wind up with a 27-2 majority in the state's congressional delegation after this year's election.

NY-01 (Rep. Tim Bishop, D) 2004 Vote: Bush 49.4%-48.7%. Bishop won this seat in 2002 thanks primarily to the many mistakes that then-Rep. Felix Grucci (R) made during the campaign, but Bishop has made the most of the opportunity. After winning 51% in 2002, he was re-elected with 56% in 2004 and 61% in 2006. Bishop shouldn't have too much difficulty this year as he takes on Republican Lee Zeldin, an Iraq War Veteran. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR BISHOP.

NY-02 (Rep. Steve Israel, D) 2004 Vote: Kerry 53%-45%. Israel first won this seat in 2000 when GOP Rep. Rick Lazio gave it up to run for Senate against Hillary Clinton. Israel, who has compiled a moderate voting record, has won by huge margins the last couple of times around, pulling in 70% of the vote in 2006. Expect something similar this year against Republican John Bugler, a retired engineer. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR ISRAEL.

NY-03 (Rep. Peter King, R) 2004 Vote: Bush 53%-47%. Democrats made King a target in 2006, knowing that Hillary Clinton and Eliot Spitzer were going to carry New York by huge margins at the top of the ticket. But King won by a surprisingly comfortable 56%-44%, which I suppose scared off the Democrats this year, as none filed to run against him. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR KING.

NY-04 (Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, D) 2004 Vote: Kerry 55%-44%. The GOP actually held a 4-0 majority of Long Island's House seats as recently as 1996; McCarthy was the first Democrat to break through by defeating Republican incumbent Dan Frisa that year. McCarthy actually has a legitimate challenger this year in Jack Martins (R), the mayor of Mineola, the county seat of Nassau County. Ten years ago, this would be a competitive race, but not anymore. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR McCARTHY.

NY-05 (Rep. Gary Ackerman, D) 2004 Vote: Kerry 63%-36%. Now we get into the New York City seats, as the 5th takes in much of northeastern Queens along with a few villages in northwestern Nassau County. Ackerman, first elected in a 1983 special election, will face either Republican attorney Liz Berney or retired INS worker Gonzalo Policarpio. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR ACKERMAN.

NY-06 (Rep. Greg Meeks, D) 2004 Vote: Kerry 84%-15%. The majority-black 6th is easily the most Democratic Queens-based district, and incumbent Rep. Greg Meeks (D) is unopposed. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR MEEKS.

NY-07 (Rep. John Crowley, D) 2004 Vote: Kerry 74%-25%. The heavily Democratic 7th takes in northwestern Queens and across the Throgs Neck and Whitestone bridges into the eastern parts of the Bronx. Bronx Conservative Party Treasurer William Britt will be the GOP candidate this year. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR CROWLEY.

NY-08 (Rep. Jerrold Nadler, D) 2004 Vote: Kerry 72%-27%. Nadler, whose district includes landmarks like the WTC site and the rest of Lower Manhattan, along with Coney Island on the Brooklyn side of the East River, has no Republican opponent this year. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR NADLER.

NY-09 (Rep. Anthony Weiner, D) 2004 Vote: Kerry 56%-44%. This district saw the biggest swing in Bush's favor from 2000 to 2004 of any Congressional District, no doubt due to 9/11: in 2000, Bush lost the 9th by 37 points but he only lost it by 12 in 2004. Weiner, who was elected to the NYC council in 1991 at age 27 and to this seat in 1998 when he was just 34, has no Republican opposition this year. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR WEINER.

NY-10 (Rep. Ed Towns, D) 2004 Vote: Kerry 86%-13%. No Republicans are running in the heavily Democratic 10th, but Towns still has a serious primary challenge this year. Journalist Kevin Powell, who appeared on the first season of MTV's The Real World in the early 90s, is likely to give Towns a serious challenge. Towns won less than 50% in his primary in 2006 against two opponents, so expect this primary to be competitive. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

NY-11 (Rep. Yvette Clarke, D) 2004 Vote: Kerry 86%-13%. Clarke won this seat in 2006 when longtime Democratic Rep. Major Owens retired. And barring a primary challenge at some point, this seat is hers for as long as she wants it. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR CLARKE.

NY-12 (Rep. Nydia Velazquez, D) 2004 Vote: Kerry 80%-19%. The safely Democratic 12th takes in part of three boroughs-Manhattan's lower east side, and parts of Queens and Brooklyn near the East River. The first Puerto Rican woman elected to Congress, Velazquez has no Republican opposition. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR VELAZQUEZ.

NY-13 (Open, Rep. Vito Fossella-R retiring) 2004 Vote: Bush 55%-45%. This is basically the "Murphy's Law" seat for the Republicans. After being fairly secure in this Staten-Island based seat for 11 years, it all came crashing down for Fossella when he was arrested for DUI on May 1st of this year. Turns out the woman who bailed him out was his mistress, with whom he had fathered an out-of-wedlock child 3 years earlier. Nice. Anyway, Fossella announced shortly thereafter that he would not run again, but it looked like the GOP could weather the storm with by recruiting a strong candidate in the Republican-leaning CD. But it wasn't that easy, as a long list of top-tier candidates all declined to run. Finally, the GOP got 67-year-old Wall Street executive Frank Powers to run, but tragically he passed away of a heart attack on June 22nd. This gave the GOP had less than a month after Powers' death to find a new candidate, finally settling (sort of) on former Assemblyman Bob Straniere. But Straniere has a strained relationship with the Staten Island GOP, and many top Staten Island Republicans are reluctant to support him. Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, city councilman Mike McMahon has been able to sit back and watch while all this has been happening on the Republican side, all the while raising $500K in Q2. McMahon should easily defeat 2006 nominee Steve Harrison in the Democratic Primary, and he now looks like a favorite in November as well. Slight R►SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR McMAHON.

NY-14 (Rep. Carolyn Maloney, D) 2004 Vote: Kerry 74%-24%. Maloney, first elected in 1993 to this safely Democratic district based on Manhattan's East Side, has no GOP opposition to a 9th term. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR MALONEY.

NY-15 (Rep. Charlie Rangel, D) 2004 Vote: Kerry 90%-9%. The outspoken Rangel, a veteran of the Korean War, was first elected in 1970. His Harlem-based 15th district was John Kerry's best district in the country 4 years ago; Rangel has no Republican opponent this year. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR RANGEL.

NY-16 (Rep. Jose Serrano, D) 2004 Vote: Kerry 89%-10%. This was Al Gore's best district in 2000, when he carried it, 92%-5%. I guess the good news for Bush is that he doubled his support here in only four years! Serrano, whose district includes Yankee Stadium and much of the South Bronx, has no Republican opponent this year. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR SERRANO.

NY-17 (Rep. Eliot Engel, D) 2004 Vote: Kerry 67%-33%. This is the last district to take in any part of New York City, stretching from northern parts of the Bronx into southern parts of Westchester and Rockland counties. Engel should easily defeat Republican Robert Goodman this year and win an 11th term. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR ENGEL.

NY-18 (Rep. Nita Lowey, D) 2004 Vote: Kerry 58%-42%. Lowey was considered a possible Senate candidate in 2000 but deferred to Hillary Clinton; she was also considered a strong possibility to be appointed to the Senate seat if Clinton had been elected President this year. But she'll have to settle for an 11th term this year in this safely Democratic seat based in Westchester County, as her only opponent is Independent David Prunier. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR LOWEY.

NY-19 (Rep. John Hall, D) 2004 Vote: Bush 54%-45%. Hall, who achieved fame in the 1970s with the band Orleans ("Still The One" is probably their best known song), was elected to this seat in 2006 by upsetting Republican incumbent Sue Kelly 51%-49%. The GOP tried long and hard to find a strong candidate for this seat, but ultimately had to settle for Iraq War Veteran Kieran Lalor, who has never held elected office before. Significant►STRONG ADVANTAGE FOR HALL.

NY-20 (Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, D) 2004 Vote: Bush 54%-46%. This was one of the 3 seats in New York the Democrats picked up in 2006, when Gillibrand defeated scandal-plagued Republican John Sweeney by a 53%-47% margin. But Gillibrand has proven herself to be plenty capable in her own right, raising almost $4M already for her 2008 campaign. Self-funder Sandy Treadwell, a former New York Secretary of State and the frontrunner in the 3-way Republican primary, is a capable challenger but Gillibrand is the favorite. SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR GILLIBRAND.

NY-21 (Open, Rep. Mike McNulty-D retiring) 2004 Vote: Kerry 55%-43%. McNulty, a popular moderate Democrat, is retiring from this Albany-based seat after 10 terms. In a better year for the Republicans, they might have an outside shot at this seat, but this year it looks like this race will basically be decided in the Democratic Primary. 9 Democrats are running, but right now the favorites appear to be attorney Tracey Brooks, former state assemblyman Paul Tonko, and Albany County legislator Phil Steck. Two Republicans are running: Schenectady County legislator Jim Burhmaster and businessman Steven Vasquez. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

NY-22 (Rep. Maurice Hinchey, D) 2004 Vote: Kerry 54%-45%. This district was drawn to be safe for Hinchey by connecting the heavily Democratic areas of Ulster County with Binghamton and Ithaca. Hinchey, an outspoken liberal, should be safe for another term against one of four Republicans in the race: businessman Bruce Layman, teacher David Grate, health care executive Joseph Schmidt, teacher George Phillips. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR HINCHEY.

NY-23 (Rep. John McHugh, R) 2004 Vote: Bush 51%-47%. Along with Peter King of the 3rd district, McHugh is the only safe Republican in New York this year out of the state's 29 districts. His district, based in the far reaches of upstate New York near the Canadian border, is marginal but McHugh has won his last 5 elections with at least 63% of the vote. Two Democrats will challenge him this year: attorney Mike Oot and retired Marine Officer Don Francis. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR McHUGH.

NY-24 (Rep. Mike Arcuri, D) 2004 Vote: Bush 53%-47%. Arcuri won this seat for the Democrats in 2006 when longtime liberal Republican Rep. Sherwood Bohlert retired, defeating Republican Ray Meier by a 54%-45%. Businessman Richard Hanna is the Republican candidate, and with his ample resources he could have made this a competitive race, but his late entrance makes Arcuri a heavy favorite. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR ARCURI.

NY-25 (Open, Rep. James Walsh-R, retiring) 2004 Vote: Kerry 50%-48%. Syracuse has historically been Republican territory, but that has been changing: it narrowly favored Al Gore and John Kerry in 2000 and 2004, and longtime incumbent Walsh was held to only a 51%-49% victory in 2006 against former Congressional aide Dan Maffei. Walsh may be the only Republican who could hold this seat, so his retirement puts Maffei, who is running again this year, in the driver's seat. 3 Republicans are running, but former Onondoga County legistlative chair Dale Sweetland is the favorite to face Maffei in November. Slight►SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR MAFFEI.

NY-26 (Open, Rep. Tom Reyonlds-R retiring) 2004 Vote: Bush 55%-43%. Of the three retiring Republicans in New York this year, this is probably the seat the GOP has the least concern over, despite Reynolds' close call (52%-48%) against Democratic businessman Jack Davis in 2006. Davis probably should have won the race as Reynolds was believed by some to have been complicit in the Mark Foley scandal, and it wasn't until the last couple of weeks before Election Day that Reynolds pulled ahead. Davis is running again this year for the Democrats, but many Democrats see Davis as getting in the way of their preferred candidate, Iraq War Veteran Jon Powers; attorney Alice Kryzan is also in the mix for the Democrats. Meanwhile, Republican businessman Chris Lee has no opposition in the GOP primary. Slight►SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR LEE.

NY-27 (Rep. Brian Higgins, D) 2004 Vote: Kerry 53%-45%. Despite the Democratic leanings of this district, Republican Jack Quinn had easily held this seat for six terms until he decided to retire in 2004. This was one of the top House races that year, with Higgins prevailing by just a 51%-49% margin. Higgins faced a weak opponent in 2006, winning 79%-21%, and Higgins should win a 3rd term this year against businessman Dan Humiston (R). OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR HIGGINS.

NY-28 (Rep. Louise Slaughter, D) 2004 Vote: Kerry 63%-36%. Slaughter, first elected in 1986, has a safe seat as the 28th delivered the biggest margin for Kerry of any upstate district. No Republican filed to run against her this year. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR SLAUGHTER.

NY-29 (Rep. Randy Kuhl, R) 2004 Vote: Bush 56%-42%. This is the most Republican district in New York, but Kuhl hasn't made it easy, winning with only 51% in 2004 and 52% in 2006, facing off that year against retired naval officer Eric Massa. Massa is running again this year, and based on how close the race was in 2006 and how strong Massa's fundraising has been so far, I expect a tight race here. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR KUHL.