Minnesota House Races

This is now the 47th of 50 states I have covered in my House race roundup. The link for 435 House race coverage at the top left will give you all of the previous installments.

When two parties are fighting over drawing district lines, it can be a nightmare, but when you 3 parties are involved it's all but impossible. That was the case in Minnesota in 2002, when the Governor was Independent Jesse Ventura, the House was controlled by the Republicans, and the Senate was controlled by the Democrats. Neither side really wound up in bad shape: even though Kerry only won 3 of the 8 Congressional Districts while carrying the state in 2004, the 5 that Bush won were mostly by small margins, and Democrats currently represent two of those to have a 5-3 majority overall. And they have a chance to add to that this year, with an open seat in the state's most competitive district.

MN-01 (Rep. Tim Walz, D) 2004 Vote: Bush 51%-47%. This was part of the Democratic wave of 2006, when Walz defeated Republican incumbent Gil Gutneckht by a solid 53%-47% margin in this highly competitive seat in Southern Minnesota. Walz has put up impressive fundraising numbers this year, and will be strongly favored to win a second term. Traditionally in Minnesota, the nominees are decided by convention, and MN-01 Republicans selected physician Brian Davis. But GOP State Sen. Dick Day is staying in the race until the primary, complicating Davis' chances of picking up this seat. STRONG ADVANTAGE FOR WALZ.

MN-02 (Rep. John Kline, R) 2004 Vote: Bush 54%-45%. This district based in the southern suburbs of the Twin Cities leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so. Democrats got an interesting recruit here two years ago in Colleen Rowley, a "whistleblower" who was one of Time's co-people of the year in 2002. But Kline won by a surprisingly easy 56%-40%, and it looks like Kline, now in his 3rd term, has entrenched himself pretty well. Former Watertown mayor and Iraq War Veteran Steve Sarvi (D) will be Kline's opponent this year. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR KLINE.

MN-03 (Open, Rep. Jim Ramstad-R retiring) 2004 Vote: Bush 51%-48%. This will be the race to watch in Minnesota this year, with the retirement of Ramstad, who has held this seat since 1991. This seat is darn close to 50-50, and both sides recruited good candidates: the Republicans with State Rep. Erik Paulsen, and the Democrats with attorney Ashwin Madia, who is only 30 years old. In some ways, this mirrors the Presidential race: Paulsen, the Republican, is a known quantity who is generally ywell-respected, while Madia is the young upstart who has impressed with his energy and fundraising ability. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR PAULSEN; expect this one to be really close.

MN-04 (Rep. Betty McCollum, D) 2004 Vote: Kerry 62%-37%. A lot of Democrats wanted McCollum to challenge Sen. Norm Coleman (R) this year, but McCollum seems content with her safe House seat based in St. Paul. McCollum should win a 5th term easily this year against Republican Ed Matthews, an accountant. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR McCOLLUM.

MN-05 (Rep. Keith Ellison, D) 2004 Vote: Kerry 71%-28%. Ellison was first elected in 2006 when longtime Rep. Martin Sabo retired, and he made news by being the first Muslim ever elected to Congress. He has a safe seat, as the Minneapolis-based 5th is the most Democratic in the state. His opponent this year is Republican Barb Davis White, a minister. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR ELLISON.

MN-06 (Rep. Michelle Bachmann, R) 2004 Vote: Bush 57%-42%. This seat was open in 2006 when Rep. Mark Kennedy (R) vacated it to run for the Senate. This seat was expected to be competitive, but Bachmann defeated well-known child safety advocate Patty Wetterling by a 50%-42% margin. Democrats have a good candidate this year in Elwyn Tinklenberg, the mayor of Blaine, MN, but this district is Republican enough that Bachmann should win. STRONG ADVANATAGE FOR BACHMANN.

MN-07 (Rep. Collin Peterson, D) 2004 Vote: Bush 55%-44%. This huge Western Minnesota district, which stretches from the Canadian border almost to Iowa, generally leans Republican. However, Peterson's long tenure, moderate voting record, and the fact that he's Chair of House Agriculture Committee allows him to win here regularly by lopsided margins of 2:1 or more. Accountant Glen Menze, who lost to Peterson by a 69%-30% margin in 2000, will be the Republican candidate this year. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR PETERSON.

MN-08 (Rep. James Oberstar, D) 2004 Vote: Kerry 53%-46%. This Duluth-based district is historically very Democratic, although its social conservatism kept it pretty competitive between Bush and Kerry in 2004. But that's not a problem for the pro-life Oberstar, who defeated former US Sen. Bob Grams (R) by 30 points in 2006. Oberstar has no Republican opponent this year. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR OBERSTAR.