Louisiana House Races

Louisiana is the latest state in my coverage of every House race this year. Check out the link at the top left of the page for previous states.

Control of redistricting was split in 2002 between Republican Governor Mike Foster and the Democratic legislature, and so the result here is a lot of competitive districts. Of the 7, one is safely Republican, one is safely Democratic, while the other 5 are typical of the state: Republican-leaning in Presidential Elections, but capable of electing conservative Democrats for downballot races. Right now, after a special election win earlier this year, the Democrats have only a 4-3 deficit, and while they have a chance to turn that into a majority, they also could wind up losing ground.

LA-01 (Rep. Steve Scalise, R) 2004 Vote: Bush 71%-28%. Scalise was elected to this seat earlier this year in a special election, when incumbent Rep. Bobby Jindal was elected Governor. This is easily the most Republican district in Louisiana, so Scalise pretty much has a lock on this seat already; he'll face Democrat Jim Harlan, a technology execuitive, in November. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR SCALISE.

LA-02 (Rep. William Jefferson, D) 2004 Vote: Kerry 75%-24%. Despite Jefferson's office being raided by the FBI and the infamous money in the freezer in 2006, Jefferson was somehow re-elected that year, defeating Democrat Karen Carter in the runoff by 57%-43%. In this heavily Democratic district, Jefferson can't lose his seat to a Republican (attorney Joseph Cao is their candidate this year), but there's a real chance for him to lose in the primary. Jefferson has no fewer than 7 Democratic opponents in the primary, among the frontrunners to challenge him are State Rep. Cedric Richmond, New Orleans Councilman James Carter, and Jefferson Parish Councilman Byron Lee. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

LA-03 (Rep. Charlie Melancon, D) 2004 Vote: Bush 58%-41%. Melancon was first elected to the House in a major upset, when in the 2004 race to replace retiring Rep. Billy Tauzin (R), he defeated Tauzin's son by the scant margin of 569 votes. But he had a much easier time in 2006, defeating Republican Craig Romero by a healthy 55%-40% margin. No Republican filed here this year. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR MELANCON.

LA-04 (Open, Rep. Jim McCrery-R retiring) 2004 Vote: Bush 59%-40%. McCrery was first elected to this Shreveport-based seat in a 1988 special election, and had the GOP held the House in 2006, McCrery would likely have become chairman of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee. But when the GOP lost control, the spot went to Democrat Charlie Rangel, and McCrery announced his retirement shortly thereafter. 3 Democrats are running, but the clear frontrunner here is Caddo Parish District Attorney Paul Carmouche. The Republican field is more up in the air, with the favorites including businessman Chris Gorman, attorney Jeff Thompson, and former Webster Parish coroner John Fleming. Expect this race to be close, as Carmouche is a strong candidate and has raised a healthy sum so far. Significant►SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR THE REPUBLICANS.

LA-05 (Rep. Rodney Alexander, R) 2004 Vote: Bush 62%-37%. When Republican Congressman John Cooksey gave up this seat to run for the Senate in 2002, Alexander won it in a runoff-but as a Democrat. In 2004, he switched parties and became a Republican, easily winning re-election in 2004 and 2006. This year, he has no Democratic opposition, but he does have a primary challenge from businessman Andrew Clack. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR ALEXANDER.

LA-06 (Rep. Dan Cazayoux, D) 2004 Vote: Bush 59%-40%. Cazayoux won this seat earlier this year in a Special Election when Republican Congressman Richard Baker resigned his seat. Cazayoux defeated former State Rep. Woody Jenkins (R) 49%-46%, but many believe that Jenkins' weaknesses as a candidate was largely responsible for Cazayoux's win. That won't be an issue in November, as Jenkins is not running again, but instead the GOP recruited State Sen. Bill Cassidy to run. Complicating things for Cazayoux is that State Rep. Michael Jackson, an African-American, is running as an Independent and could pull valuable votes from Cazayoux's total. Slight Cazayoux►SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR CASSIDY.

LA-07 (Rep. Charles Boustany, R) 2004 Vote: Bush 60%-39%. Boustany won this seat in a 2004 runoff when Rep. Chris John (D) gave up this seat to run for the Senate. Democrats recruited a good candidate here this year in State Sen. Don Cravins Jr., but Boustany, who won 71% in 2006, will be very tough to beat. OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR BOUSTANY.