Senate Rankings: March 2008

The Senate races have actually received a little more attention over the last couple of weeks with a hiatus in the Presidential Primaries. Most of the top-tier races continue to be fairly quiet at this point, with Republicans still likely to lose 3-6 of their own seats, and Democrats only looking at one truly vulnerable seat. But Democratic recruiting continues to be very good, with quality candidates in heavily Republican Alaska, Nebraska, and Kansas. Meanwhile, Republicans continue to struggle mightily in recruiting, as they have either no challenger or only weak challengers in red states like Arkansas, Iowa, and Montana. As always, please feel free to comment or post your own rankings. (last month's rankings in parenthesees)

35) (22) Arkanas (Pryor-D) No Republican challenger to Pryor pretty much moves this seat automatically to the bottom of the list.

34) (35) Rhode Island (Reed-D) Rhode Island saw a very competitive Senate race in 2006, but is unlikely to see another for quite a long time.

33) (34) Wyoming (Enzi-R) No Democratic challenger so far to Enzi means he can focus his time and money on trying to get a Republican elected to the state's House seat.

32) (33) Mississippi (Cochran-R) Cochran will take on State Rep. Erik Fleming this year, who lost in a landslide to Trent Lott in 2006.

31) (32)Wyoming (Special, Barrasso, R) Democrats have come up with two challengers to Barrasso: attorney Nick Carter and former State Sen. Keith Goodenough; but there's no reason to think Barrasso won't be in good shape in deep-red Wyoming.

30) (31) West Virginia (Rockefeller-D) (corrected-I forgot to mention Iowa in my initial post) With Pete Domenici's retirment in New Mexico, West Virginia will be tied with Massachusetts and Iowa for currently having the same two Senators for the longest time (Rockefeller, Tom Harkin, and John Kerry were all first elected in 1984).

29) (30) Illinois (Durbin-D) A Research2000 poll from back in January showed Durbin's favorable rating at a less-than-fantastic (or perhaps less-than-Obama in IL) 54%, but against a weak challenger like Steve Sauerberg, he shouldn't have any trouble.

28) (26) Delaware (Biden-D) Republicans have struggled with recruiting across the country this year, but that problem seems to be even bigger in Delaware, where Republicans don't have a credible candidate for either Senator or Governor.

27) (27) Michigan (Levin-D) Republicans aggressively targeted Senate and Governor races here in 2006, but after suffering double-digit losses in each race, they seem to have no interest in going after Levin this year.

26) (29) South Carolina (Graham-R) It still looks like Graham's biggest challenge will be in the primary, but having his ideological twin McCain as the Republican nominee probably lessens the chances that he'll be in any kind of trouble.

25) (23) Alabama (Sessions-R) The last SurveyUSA poll has Sessions sitting at 60% approval, including 45% of Democrats and 43% of African-Americans.

24) (25) Tennessee (Alexander-R) A Republican poll last week showed Alexander up by about 60%-30% over either of his Democratic challengers; I don't expect the final result to look a whole lot different from that.

23) (24) Montana (Baucus-D) Rep. Denny Rehberg was probably the only Republican in the state who could have won against Baucus, but there are some others who at least could have made it competitive. Baucus won 63% in 2002, the only poll I have seen from this race showed him at the same 63% aginat Republican Michael Lange.

22) (15) South Dakota (Johnson-D) Republicans are running out of time here with the state's filing deadline coming up on Tuesday. With weak GOP opponents, a big cash advantage, a big lead in the polls, and they sympathy of South Dakota voters, Johnson should cruise to a third term unless his health becomes a major issue again.

21) (21) Iowa (Harkin-D) With Republican Rep. Steve King's decision not to run, this now looks like a virtually certain hold for the Democrats. The Republican field of candidates, led by businessman Steve Rathje, is quite weak.

20) (28) Kansas (Roberts-R) Former Rep. Jim Slattery (D) is a legitimate challenger, so this race moves up significantly in this month's rankings. But Slattery has been out of politics quite some time, with his last run for office being an unsuccessful one for Governor in 1994.

19) (20) Massachusetts (Kerry-D) Were we talking about just about any other state in the country, Kerry's 47% approval rating (according to SurveyUSA in February) would be major cause for concern. And while Kerry won't get anything like the 69% Ted Kennedy won in 2006, he still should win comfortably, especially considering that he's got about $10M cash on hand.

18) (18) Georgia (Chambliss-R) A Rasmussen Poll out on Friday showed Chambliss up 52%-36% over Democrat Dale Cardwell-a good place to be for Chambliss, but it's still a lead that doesn't exactly look insurmountable. But there's a major question of whether or not Cardwell can even get through the Democratic Primary, as State Rep. Jim Martin's entry in the race may split the white vote in the primary and allow Vernon Jones to sneak through.

17) (17) Oklahoma (Inhofe-R) In 2006, targeted Republicans like Conrad Burns, Rick Santorum, and George Allen almost seemed intent on confirming Democratic accusations that they had extreme and/or racist views by frequently saying the wrong thing at the wrong time. And while Democrats have made similar accusations towards Inhofe, he has basically kept himself out of hot water so far. State Sen. Andrew Rice (D) is a good candidate, but he won't be helped by the fact that Obama will probably get clobbered here on the top of the ticket (just ask Brad Carson about how important that is).

16) (19) Nebraska (Open, Hagel-R) Democrat Scott Kleeb, who lost a race for Congress here in 2006, entered the race within the last month, so this race moves up a bit in the rankings. But he's up against a juggernaut in former Gov. Mike Johanns, whose last statewide race was his 69%-28% re-election for Governor in 2002.

15) (16) Texas (Cornyn, R) State Rep. Rick Noriega was able to avoid a runoff in the March 4th Democratic primary by getting just over 50% of the vote. The good news is that he fared a bit better than eventual 2006 Senate candidate Barbara Ann Radnofsky, who did need a runoff, but the fact that he could barely get to 50% against very weak competition is a bad sign. But Texas is not quite as Republican as its perceived, so Noriega should still be able to win a respectable percentage.

14) (13) Idaho (Open, Craig-R) There is some uneasiness here about the candidacy of LG Jim Risch, evidenced by the fact that he has five opponenets in the Republican Primary. But none appear to be a serious threat, and the more the Craig scandal fades in voters' memories, the better shape Risch should be in against former Democratic Rep. Larry LaRocco.

13) (12) North Carolina (Dole-R) We have had quite the bomardment of polls in North Carolina, and the one consistent in the Democratic Primary is the high number of undecideds. And with the primary only about a month and a half away, it's a sign that Democrats are not really thrilled about any of the candidates. But Republicans appear to have a ceiling here in the mid-50s or so, and it may be tough for Dole to get much above that.

12) (14) New Jersey (Lautenberg-D) Republicans got a second chance to find a strong candidate here when businesswoman Anne Evans Estabrook exited the race, but so far have been unable to capitialize with a top recruit. Republicans obviously feel that State Sen. Joe Pennachino is too conservative to win (although he only trails 46%-38% against Lautenberg in the most recent Rasmussen poll), which is why the GOP recruited businessman Andrew Unanue to enter the race. He's a good candidate on paper: young, moderate, Hispanic, and he can self-fund in very expensive New Jersey.

11) (10) Mississippi (Special, Wicker-R) Little polling or news from this race, but it's tough to see Wicker losing unless he makes some significant mistake between now and November. Musgrove is just about the strongest candidate the Democrats could run, though, and the final numbers here should wind up pretty close.

10) (11) Kentucky (McConnell-R) Ever since Democrats Crit Luallen and Greg Stumbo passed on this race, Democrats have eased their attacks on McConnell a bit. But McConnell's numbers still don't look as strong as one might anticipate: a Janurary survey from a Republican pollster showed him ahead of likely Democratic nominee Bruce Lunsford by a somwhat underwhelming 52%-37%.

9) (9) Maine (Collins-R) Collins remains a very elusive target for the Democrats: she makes very few mistakes and Mainers just seem to really like her. Democratic Rep. Tom Allen continues to do all the right things, including keeping pace with Collins in fundraising, but the candidacy of not one, but two, Independent "peace activists" makes his task that much tougher.

8) (8) Oregon (Smith-R) When State House Speaker Jeff Merkley got into the race last summer, the Democratic Primary appeared to be a mere formality. But activist Steve Novick has run a very good campaign so far, including running an ad making light of the fact that he has a hook instead of a left hand, and the May primary now looks pretty competitive. A January Riley Research poll had Novick actually a little bit ahead (albeit with 73% undecided), but Smith has to be pretty happy that he has been able to stockpile cash while waiting for the Democratic nominee to emerge.

7) (7) Alaska (Stevens-R) A Hays Research poll released this week showed Stevens viewed favorably (49%) by about as many voters as view him unfavorably (46%). Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich is probably the strongest candidate the Democrats could have run, so all of the ingridients look to be in place for Alaska's second consecuitive marquee Senate race. The deciding factor here looks to be Stevens' ethical issues, as he probably becomes an underdog if they get any worse and he's probably a slight favorite if they don't.

6) (6) Minnesota (Coleman-R) Franken's main primary opponent, attorney Mike Ciriesi, dropped out this month, which should help Franken focus his campaign and cash on going after Coleman. But March was a better month than February in the polls for Coleman, who went from -3 to +2 according to Rasmussen and +1 to +10 according to SurveyUSA. But for Franken to be this close this early is a good sign for him, and in most polls he has turned around the negative favorability ratings he had to start the campaign.

5) (5) Louisiana (Landrieu-D) It's pretty remarkable how quiet this race has been, with no polling this year and neither candidate really going out of their way to make headlines. The good news for Treasurer John Kennedy is that SurveyUSA showed McCain beating both Democrats here by double digits. This is significant because Bush's 2004 cottails (he won LA by 15 points) were enough to pull David Vitter over 50%, which Vitter wasn't really expected to reach without a runoff. We'll find out, to an extent, how successful moderate Democrats can still be in Louisiana in May during the special election in the state's 6th congressional district, which is a fairly good bellwether for the state overall.

4) (4) Colorado (Open, Allard-R) After two straight months of showing Schaffer up by one, Rasmussen showed Udall taking the lead this month by 3 points-the bottom line is that this one reamins very tight. Thinking about cottails at the top of the ticket, Udall has to be thrilled with the fact Obama is the likely Democratic nominee-polls show Obama very competitive against McCain here but show Clinton behind by double digits.

3) (2) New Mexico (Open, Domenici-R) Steve Pearce's 55%-45% win in the pre-primary over Heather Wilson may actually make him the slight favorite now in the June primary. But if the primary doesn't get too nasty, it could prove a good thing for the eventual GOP nominee; since all three candidates (including Democratic Rep. Tom Udall) represent 1/3 of the state, raising your name ID is the name of the game, and the primary should help the Republican candidate to do just that.

2) (3) New Hampshire (Sununu-R) Two polls out last week showed Shaheen leading by 8 and 14 points, and the race really hasn't moved around much from a 10 point Sununu deficit since Shaheen entered the race. Challengers consistently ahead and above 50% don't usually lose unless they make some sort of major mistake, so Shaheen is clearly in the driver's seat here.

1) (1) Virginia (Open, Warner-R) Trying to think about how I can say "Mark Warner will win" a different way each month until November...