Notes:
1) * means the seat is open, otherwise the incumbent Representative is running.
2) ** are seats where the incumbent has already been defeated in the Primary.
3) Blue means a seat currently held by a Democrat, red is a seat currently held by a Republican.
4) Any seat not listed here is in the "Overwhelming" category for the incumbent party and is unlikely to be competitive this year.
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6 comments:
Not sure why you have OH15 as Significant D. A Republican held that seat for a long time and the Democrat who currently has that seat won in the Obama tidal wave by less than 1%
PA-7th as lean Dem? Sestak is running for Specter's seat, so the Dems aren't running an incumbent, and Lentz is virtually unknown outside of his own PA legislative district. And Meehan is kicking ass at fund raising. This is a toss-up at best, or a lean GOP at worst. Just my two cents.
AR-02 hasn't elected a Repub since the 70s (I don't count Two-Face Tommy). It's only been red twice since the turn of the century. I have no idea why it would be significant R.
A few thoughts about AR-02 my same-named friend: keep in mind that NY-23 hadn't elected a Democrat since the 1880s and that didn't stop Bill Owens from winning. But specifically to that race:
1) Obama's approval rating in Arkansas is terrible
2) Griffin got an earlier start in the race and I expect him to be ahead of the field in the next fundraising reports
3) A Democratic victory in that district is very dependent on strong Black turnout (the CD is 20% black), which I don't think will be there this year.
For what it's worth, I have Arkansas a pretty likely Republican seat, too. Griffin's got a 3:1 cash advantage as of the end of Q2 fundraising, Democrats picked the more liberal primary candidate in a conservative district, and polling has been ugly, if not internal.
For what it's worth, I have Arkansas - 02 a likely Republican seat as well. Griffin has a 3:1 cash advantage over the more liberal of the Democratic nominees in a conservative district. You're spot on, capital M Matt.
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