R2000/DKos OH-SEN: Dems Hold Edge

Research2000/DailyKos Ohio Poll conducted 7/6-7/8 of 600 RVs:

Democratic Primary:

Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher 22%
Secretary Of State Jennifer Brunner 17%

General Election:

Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) 42%
Fmr. Rep. Rob Portman (R) 35%

Secretary Of State Jennifer Brunner (D) 40%
Fmr. Rep. Rob Portman (R) 36%

All polls of the Democratic Primary have shown the two very evenly matched, with Fisher holding basically a negligible lead. The more interesting aspect will be the money they're bringing in-Fisher far outraised Brunner in Q1, and if there's a repeat this time he becomes the substantial favorite. The General Election continues to favor the Democrats, but again there are plenty of undecided voters. Fisher is slightly stronger than Brunner against Portman, and also has a slightly better favorable rating, but the difference is again quite small. As other polls have shown, Portman has lower name ID than his two Democratic rivals, which may account for some of his deficit, but he's come up with an interesting strategy: referring to himself as an insider who "knows where the bodies are buried."

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

R2000/DKos OH-GOV: Another Poll Shows It Close

Research2000/DailyKos Ohio Poll conducted 7/6-7/8 of 600 RVs:

Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 44%
Fmr. Rep. John Kasich (R) 39%

This is now the 3rd straight poll to show this race within 5 points, pretty much clearing up any polling ambiguities. All things considered, Strickland's numbers really aren't terrible, as 44% view him favorably while just 40% view him unfavorably, but they're a far cry from where they were a few months ago. 57% have no opinion of Kasich, not surprising considering he hasn't been in Congress since Bill Clinton was President, but he does have a solid 31%/12% rating among those who know him; even Democrats are evenly split at 18%/19%. Kasich is an interesting and charismatic campaigner-he had a show on FOXNews for several years-which could provide an interesting contrast to the more reserved Strickland.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR STRICKLAND.

UT TX-GOV Primaries: Perry Takes The Lead, Friedman Leads Dems

University of Texas Poll conducted 6/11-6/24 of 350 Republicans and 262 Democrats, pdf here:

Republican Primary:

Gov. Rick Perry 38%
Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison 26%

Democratic Primary:

2006 Independent Candidate Kinky Friedman 12%
State Sen. Leticia Van De Putte 7%
Ambassador Tom Schieffer 3%

It seems like Perry is just about the only Governor of a big state who is doing better now than he was six months ago. It wasn't long ago that it looked like he would get swamped by Hutchison, but we've now seen several polls putting him ahead, and he had a monster second quarter of fundraising. Meantime, the always interesting Friedman leads the little-known Democratic field; in fact Van de Putte announced she wouldn't run last month. Even though Hutchision would probably be a somewhat stronger candidate than Perry, I don't see any way Perry loses to the current crop of Democratic candidates.

STRONG ADVANTAGE FOR THE REPUBLICANS.

Rasmussen NJ-GOV: Christie's Lead Slips

Rasmussen New Jersey Poll conducted 7/7 of 500 LVs:

Without Leaners:

Fmr. US Attorney Chris Christie (R) 46%
Gov. Jon Corzine (D) 39%

With Leaners:

Fmr. US Attorney Chris Christie (R) 53%
Gov. Jon Corzine (D) 41%

Corzine continues to be mired around 40% in just about every poll, but at the same time Christie hasn't been able to strech out his advantage much either and now seems to be polling under 50% again. If I were Christie, I would be a little concerned about the softness of his support-57% view him favorably, but just 12% view him "very favorably," perhaps an indication that people will put up with him but aren't thrilled about having him as Governor. Probabaly the best news in this poll for Christie is that among voters who say they have their minds made up, he leads by 16. But 42% still say they may change their minds, indicating a race that still has a long way to go.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR CORZINE.

PPP MN-GOV: Coleman Hurt By Recount, Would Start Behind

Public Policy Polling Minnesota Poll conducted 7/7-7/8 of 1491 RVs, pdf here:

Fmr. Sen. Mark Dayton (D) 41%
Fmr. Sen. Norm Coleman (R) 39%

Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak (D) 43%
Fmr. Sen. Norm Coleman (R) 37%

Fmr. Sen. Norm Coleman (R) 42%
House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D) 34%

Not surprisingly, the long recount and appeal process has taken its toll on Coleman as 52% of Minnesota voters view him unfavorably while 38% view him favorably. This is why when recounts begin they often drag out for a while-Coleman figured he had a better chance of winning an appeal than winning another office in Minnesota again. If Coleman wants to run for something else in Minnesota (and he hasn't said that he will), he'll need to take a few years off first to have a real shot. Meantime, the poll has some good news for Rybak, who has solid favorable ratings of 37%/24%, while Dayton and Kelliher have net negative favorable ratings. This open seat being vacated by Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) is one of the top Democratic pickup opportunities for next year.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

IL-SEN: Burris and Madigan Out, Kirk In

It now looks like the Senate seat previously held by President Obama could have one of the most competitive races in the country next year. The big news was that Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D) would not run for the seat, something she had been considering for some time. In my last Senate rankings, I wrote "[Madigan's] potential candidacy has also frozen Rep. Mark Kirk (R)." That's why it didn't surprise me that just a few hours after Madigan announced she wouldn't run, Kirk declared his candidacy. Kirk did not want to face the very popular Madigan, but he is a very strong candidate who can raise plenty of money and has a history of winning in a Democratic district. But he still faces a tough challenge as he tries to overcome Illinois' massive Democratic lean, and he's likely to face a quality opponent in Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D). It seems like only a footnote that the current occupant of this seat, the one and only Roland Burris, will not seek a full term next year.

Strong►SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

OH-15: Stivers Back For A Rematch

One of the last House races to be decided last year was in Ohio's 15th Congressional District, which includes much of the Western suburbs of Columbus. After waiting weeks for all of the provisional ballots to be counted, Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D) was declared the winner over State Sen. Steve Stivers (R) by a 2311 vote margin-with a pro-life Independent candidate pulling over 12000 votes. Stivers formally announced that he will run for the seat again next year, and that makes this one of the top pickup opportunities for the Republicans. The Republicans view Kilroy as a weak candidate-she was expected to beat Deborah Pryce in 2006 but came up short, and she won only 46% of the vote last year in a district that gave Obama 53%. But Democrats counter that this district is rapdily trending Democratic and attack Stivers for his time as a bank lobbyist.

Significant►SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR KILROY.

SD-GOV: Herseth Sandlin Won't Run

The big question mark in the open Governor's seat in South Dakota next year has been whether or not Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) would run. Yesterday, she announced that she would in fact seek re-election to the House, leaving the Democratic field pretty thin. For Sandlin, the move makes some sense, as she has a safe House seat but would face a formidable Republican if she ran for Governor, most likely Lieutenant Governor Dennis Dauggard. Dauggard should be favored in the Republican Primary, although he does have a quality opponent in State Senate President Dave Knudson. The most likely Democratic candidate now is probably State Senate Minority Leader Heidepreim, who had been waiting for Sandlin to decide one way or the other.

Significant►STRONG ADVANTAGE FOR THE REPUBLICANS.

PPP VA-GOV: McDonnell Leads By 6

Public Policy Polling Virginia Poll conducted 6/30-7/2 of 617 LVs, pdf here:

Fmr. Attorney General Bob McDonnell (R) 49%
State Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) 43%

This is the first poll PPP has taken of the race (this year, at least) and it gives McDonnell a relatively comfortable advantage four months away from the General Election. The two previous polls were taken by Rasmussen and R2000 and showed a much closer race, or one where Deeds was narrowly ahead, but both were conducted during Deeds' primary bounce in the middle of June. The two candidates have very similar favorable ratings, and are pretty much known quantities: Deeds is at 48%/29% while McDonnell is at 51%/32%. Both candidates fare similary well among members of their own party, but McDonnell clobbers Deeds 54%-33% among Independents. The poll's composition shows relatively few African-Americans, Democrats, and younger voters, so the question could be whether or not those voters, who came out for Obama last year, will do so again in big numbers for Deeds. The poll suggests there could be a Republican sweep in Virginia this year: Republican Bill Bolling leads for Lt. Governor 46%-40% while Republican Ken Cuccinelli leads for Attorney General 45%-38%.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR McDONNELL.

NH-SEN: Ayotte Jumps In

In a major recruiting coup for the Republicans, Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) will run for New Hampshire's open Senate seat next year. Aside from a token primary challenger, she will face Rep. Paul Hodes (D) in the General Election in a race that promises to be one of next year's most competitive. Hodes has gotten off to a headstart in this race, as he announced his candidacy all the way back in January. But although it took the Republicans a while to find a good candidate, they seem to have gotten the one they wanted, as a UNH poll out last week showed her faring the best of all the potential Republican candidates. But Ayotte still has a tough task in a state that has gone from being dominated by Republicans to being totally controlled by Democrats in a very short time.

Significant►SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR HODES.

Quinnipiac OH-SEN: Dem. Primary and General Both Close

Quinnipiac Ohio Poll conducted 6/26-7/1 of 1259 RVs, including 483 Democrats and 445 Republicans:

Democratic Primary:

Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher 24%
Secretary Of State Jennifer Brunner 21%

Republican Primary:

Fmr. Rep. Rob Portman 33%
Auto Dealer Tom Ganley 10%

General Election:

Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) 37%
Fmr. Rep. Rob Portman (R) 33%

Secretary Of State Jennifer Brunner (D) 35%
Fmr. Rep. Rob Portman (R) 34%

Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) 36%
Auto Dealer Tom Ganley (R) 30%

Secretary Of State Jennifer Brunner (D) 35%
Auto Dealer Tom Ganley (R) 31%

The Democratic Primary still looks to be neck-and-neck at this point, with the two running even in just about every measure. Not only is the horserace a virtual tie, but the two have virtually identical favorable ratings among Democrats-Fisher is at 49%/6% while Brunner is at 46%/4%. The biggest difference between the two so far is money, with Fisher vastly outraising Brunner in the first quarter, which will need to change if Brunner's going to keep it this close. Portman probably should be further ahead of the unknown Ganley than he is, but he's in no danger of losing the Republican Primary.

The General Election numbers represent a significant tightening from the previous Quinnipiac poll, and show a race that really is wide open. Portman has plenty of room for growth, as 72% of Ohioans have no opinion of him, while about half have no opinion of the Democratic candidates. That's also borne out in the regional crosstabs-Portman beats both Democrats by 30 points in SW Ohio where he hails from (although this is the most Republican part of the state anyway), while running even or trailing in the rest of the state. The problem for him will be overcoming his two prominent positions in the Bush administration-Trade Representative and OMB Director.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

NM-02: Pearce Will Run For His Old House Seat

First elected in 2002, Republican Steve Pearce had a stranglehold on his Southern New Mexico House Seat, which is why it surprised many observers when he ran for the Senate last year against fellow Reps. Heather Wilson (R) and Tom Udall (D). While Pearce was able to edge Wilson in the Primary, he was clobbered 61%-39% by Udall in the General, and Democrat Harry Teague easily picked up Pearce's House seat. But yesterday, citing Teague's support of the Cap and Trade bill, Pearce announced he would run for the House seat he used to hold, NM-02. In the Senate race against Udall, Pearce lost his House district to by a 52%-48% margin, which could be spun either way. Republicans could argue if Pearce nearly beat the very popular Udall in his district, he should handle Teague, but Democrats will counter that Pearce was the incumbent at the time and had no business losing his home district at all. Either way, in a district that McCain narrowly carried last year, expect this to now be a top-tier race.

Strong►SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR TEAGUE.

NE-02: Democrats Nab Strong Candidate

In both 2006 and 2008, Rep. Lee Terry (R) was considered basically safe for re-election, but each time Democrat Jim Esch made it closer than expected, losing 55%-45% in 2006 and 52%-48% in 2008. In addition to nearly electing Esch to Congress, the district voted narrowly for Barack Obama, an incredible accomplishment in a district that Bush carried with 60% of the vote in 2004. But Esch was a political unknown when he ran, and Democrats have been hoping for a better-known candidate this time. And they now have one, with State Sen. Tom White (D) announcing his bid yesterday. While Esch was generally a liberal Democrat, White has positioned himself as a pro-life, fiscally conservative Democrat, which may make him a more viable candidate in what is still generally conservative territory. This now has to be considered one of the Democrats' top House pickup opportunities next year.

Significant►SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR TERRY.

FL-24: Republicans Lining Up To Challenge Kosmas

More than any other part of Florida, the biggest reason Obama carried the state was his strength in the traditionally Republican Orlando area. Democrats defeated Republican incumbents in the 8th and 24th districts that include parts of Orlando's Orange County, and the GOP considers the two among their top targets to try to win back next year. In the 24th, Democrat Suzanne Kosmas clobbered Republican incumbent Tom Feeney 57%-41%, although how much of that had to do with Feeney's ethical issues and how much was a result of Kosmas' strengths remains to be seen. The first Republican to jump in the race was Winter Park Councilwoman Karen Diebel, but she got off to a bit of a rocky start and now other Republicans look to be interested. Yesterday, State Rep. Dorothy Hukill announced she would run, while another State Rep., Sandy Adams, sounded like she was virtually certain to get in as well. Each of their home counties produce a similar number of Republican voters, and both were elected by about a 60%-40% margin last year, so the Primary starts out as pretty much a toss-up.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR KOSMAS.

AK-GOV: Palin Will Resign

We have now had two days to take in the news that rocked the political world on Friday, that not only would Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin not seek a 2nd term, but she would resign before the end of the month. When she first made the announcement, I couldn't think of a good rationale for it but I figured something might hit me in the next day or two. It hasn't. Assuming Palin wants to run for President in 2012, the last thing she needs to worry about is running around the country giving speeches and raising money-everyone knows she can do those things. The question is whether or not she's capable of holding the highest office in the land-something that she could only answer by effectively governing Alaska while spending her spare time boning up on foreign policy. One could make a very compelling argument that she shouldn't seek a 2nd term in 2010-it's virtually impossible to run an effective campaign in the lower 48 without shirking your reponsibilities as Governor of Alaska. But if that was her plan, why cut her term a year and a half short and add "quitter" to the list of criticisms that could come your way?

The part of the story that gets little attention, not surprisingly, is the impact on Alaska's Gubernatorial race next year. Palin would have certainly won re-election handily, but instead she hands over the reins to Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell (R). Parnell ran for Congress last year, but lost by a very narrow margin in the Primary to Rep. Don Young (R). Still, Parnell is generally well-respected and I can't see much of a reason why he won't win a full term next year-last year certainly provided plenty of evidence that the state doesn't like voting out its incumbents.

Overwhelming►STRONG ADVANTAGE FOR PARNELL.

Quinnipiac OH-GOV: Kaisch Surges

Quinnipiac Ohio Poll conducted 6/26-7/1 of 1259 RVs:

Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 43%
Fmr. Rep. John Kasich (R) 38%

For a while we had dueling polls between Quinnipiac and PPP, but now Quinnipiac blinks by showing a very tight race similar to what PPP has been showing. The 5-point deficit is all that much more impressive when you consider that Quinnipiac had Kasich down by 30 as recently as Februrary 5th. Quinnipiac also keeps testing Fmr. Sen. Mike DeWine (R), but I haven't seen much indication that he's going to run. 42% view Strickland favorably, while 46% of the job he's doing as Governor, but a troubling 33% approve of how he's handling the economy, which could prove a major problem for the first-term Governor. Kasich is essentially a blank slate to Ohio voters, as 67% say they have no opinion of him. Keep an eye on Independent voters, key in evenly divided Ohio-they back Kasich over Strickland 36%-34% and disapprove of Strickland's performance as Governor 45%-42%.

Significant►SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR STRICKLAND.

UNH NH-SEN: Ayotte Would Be Strong Candidate

University Of New Hampshire Poll conducted 6/24-7/1 of 558 adults, pdf here:

Rep. Paul Hodes (D) 41%
Fmr. Sen. John Sununu (R) 40%

Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) 39%
Rep. Paul Hodes (D) 35%

Rep. Paul Hodes (D) 40%
Fmr. Rep. Charlie Bass (R) 38%

The Sununu numbers are now meaningless, as he announced last week that he would not run for this seat, which didn't come as much of a surprise. Ayotte now seems like she would have the field basically to herself if she ran, and indeed she is expected to make a decision sometime in the near future. While some have pointed out the poll's oversampling of Republicans as a reason to debunk this poll (and the numbers do seem a bit out of whack), it still is worth noting for comparitive reasons: she would be the strongest candidate the GOP would run. And while I would hesitate to say she would be a favorite in Democratic-trending New Hampshire, she would start out the race with a stellar 45% favorable/8% unfavorable rating.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR HODES.

Marist NY-SEN (S): Democratic Primary Very Close

Marist New York Poll conducted 6/23-6/25 of 1003 RVs:

Democratic Primary:

Rep. Carolyn Maloney 38%
Sen. Kirstin Gillibrand 37%

Republican Primary:

Fmr. Gov. George Pataki 51%
Rep. Peter King 36%

General Election:

Sen. Kirstin Gillibrand (D) 48%
Rep. Peter King (R) 32%

Sen. Kirstin Gillibrand (D) 46%
Fmr. Gov. George Pataki (R) 42%

Maloney just entered the race officially this week, and this poll shows that she starts the race neck-and-neck with Gillibrand. Maloney almost certainly has lower name ID, so the fact that she starts even with Gillibrand isn't a bad sign for her. But she still has a couple of major obstacles, namely that the Democratic establishment is firmly behind Gillibrand. Also, the newly appointed Senator as very saavy, and her moderately liberal voting record in the House has become very liberal since she entered the Senate as she tries to fend off this challenge from her left. And while a primary like this that has the potential to be divided sharply along ideological and geographical lines could hurt the Democrats in most situations, in a state like New York where the GOP's potential candidates don't seem interested, it probably won't matter much at all.

STRONG ADVANTAGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

Marist NY-GOV: Still Waiting On Giuliani and Cuomo...

Marist New York Poll conducted 6/23-6/25 of 1003 RVs:

Democratic Primary:

Attorney General Andrew Cuomo 69%
Gov. David Paterson 24%

Republican Primary:

Fmr. NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani 77%
Fmr. Rep. Rick Lazio 16%

General Election:

Fmr. NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) 54%
Gov. David Paterson (D) 37%

Gov. David Paterson (D) 41%
Fmr. Rep. Rick Lazio (R) 40%

Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) 51%
Fmr. NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) 43%

Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) 68%
Fmr. Rep. Rick Lazio (R) 22%

Despite his constant pronouncements that he won't run for Governor next year, I have said many times that I think Cuomo will get in eventually. And I'm obviously not the only one as it seems like everyone that polls New York tests Cuomo in both the Primary and the General. Cuomo and Giuliani would both be almost certain to win their respective primaries if they ran, although Giuliani's 8-point deficit against Cuomo is much less than his 17-point deficit in the previous Marist poll. Lazio not surprisingly gets throttled by Cuomo, and can't even beat Paterson despite Paterson having just a 21% approval rating. Lately, Giuliani has been hinting a little more that he might run, and I think a match-up between him and Paterson is probably the only way the GOP wins this seat.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR PATERSON.

NY-29: GOP Gets Solid Challenger To Massa

If the Republicans want to try to make some kind of inroads back into the Northeast, one of the most logical places for them to start would be in New York's 29th Congressional District. This is one of just four districts in the state that John McCain carried last year, and Rep. Eric Massa (D) just barely was elected here last year by a 51%-49% margin against flawed Republican incumbent Randy Kuhl. And while Massa's military background has afforded him a better chance to connect with voters in this mostly conservative district, the Republicans have just nabbed a strong candidate in Corning Mayor Tom Reed. The GOP is touting him as a moderate in the mold of old-school upstate NY Republicans, but the Democrats are already questioning him on his record as mayor. Expect a very close race here, and this is probably one of the best chances the Republicans have next year in flipping a Democratic House seat.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR MASSA.

ARG NH-SEN: Hodes Continues To Lead Sununu

American Research Group New Hampshire Poll conducted 6/27-6/29 of 558 RVs:

Rep. Paul Hodes (D) 40%
Fmr. Sen. John Sununu (R) 34%

This results is little different from the previous ARG poll, which had Hodes leading 42%-36%. Hodes has already been in the race for several months, while Sununu, who was defeated for re-election last year, will make a decision of whether or not to run soon. But the fact that he trails Hodes, who is less-known, than him, isn't a good sign for the Republican. Lately, more of the attention has been focused on Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, who will probably run if Sununu passes; unfortunately, ARG didn't test her against Hodes.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

PPP NJ-GOV: Christie Up By 10

Public Policy Polling New Jersey Poll conducted 6/27-6/29 of 1094 RVs, pdf here:

Fmr. US Attorney Chris Christie (R) 51%
Gov. Jon Corzine (D) 41%

The polls conducted since Christie won the primary back on June 2nd have been remarkably consistent. Among those four polls, Corzine has ranged from 38%-41% while Christie has pulled between 50%-51%; this poll actually represents the closest result of the four polls. Corzine is in real trouble here: a full 56% of Garden State voters disapprove of his job as Governor, including a quarter of Democrats and a whopping 70% of Independents. That latter figure translates to a whopping 60%-26% lead for Christie among Independents, and there are also appears to be no blowback from his tough primary as he carries Republicans by an almost unanimous 93%-3% margin. FDU is releasing a poll tomorrow on this race-if they confirm the results, I'll move the rating.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR CORZINE.

M-D FL-GOV: Still McCollum By 6

Mason-Dixon Florida Poll conducted 6/24-6/26 of 625 RVs, pdf here:

Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) 41%
State CFO Alex Sink (D) 35%

Mason-Dixon also polled the primaries on both sides, both McCollum and Sink would clobber their token opposition. The General Election numbers are hardly different from the previous iteration of this poll which showed McCollum up 40%-34%. Part of McCollum's early edge could be attributable to his higher name ID-61% recognize Sink's name compared to 87% who know who McCollum is. But there also parts of the crosstabs that would have me worried if I were in Sink's camp. She allows 16% of Democrats to defect to McCollum, and she trails by 14 points among Independents. Also notice that while 25% of Republicans are undecided, just 18% of Democrats have yet to make up their mind.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR McCOLLUM.

M-D FL-SEN: Opponents Inch Closer, But Crist Way Ahead

Mason-Dixon Florida Poll conducted 6/24-6/26 of 300 Republicans and 300 Democrats for Primaries, and 625 RVs for General, pdf here:

Republican Primary:

Gov. Charlie Crist 51%
Fmr. State House Speaker Marco Rubio 23%

Democratic Primary:

Rep. Kendrick Meek 27%
Rep. Corrine Brown 12%

General Election:

Gov. Charlie Crist (R) 48%
Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) 26%

Gov. Charlie Crist (R) 55%
Rep. Corrine Brown (D) 24%

The numbers in the Republican Primary are getting some attention, as Rubio has cut into the deficit slightly compared to the previous iteration of this poll; he trailed by 35 last time and by 28 here. But the number really being touted by Rubio supporters is the fact it's a virtual dead heat of 33%-31% among voters who have heard of both candidates. The thinking is that once voters get to know Rubio, the race will be a toss-up. The problem with this logic though is that voters who know who Rubio is are more likely to be conservatives, who would be sympathetic to his cause. More concering for Crist is that his favorable rating among Republicans is just 49%/22%, with the rest saying they are neutral. But make no mistake about it: Crist's support of the stimulus package, especially if it has little visible impact before next year's primary, will really hurt him. Meantime, in the Democratic Primary, Meek holds a solid lead and whether Brown runs or not I think Meek will be the nominee.

The General Election numbers are slightly closer than last time beween Crist and Meek, with Crist's lead dropping from 31 points last time to 22. But Crist is still in no real jeopardy of losing to Meek, as he gets 28% of Democrats, and would get most of the 19% of Republicans who are undecided. Unfortnately, just like Rasmussen last week, Mason-Dixon did not test Rubio against Meek. But with Rubio's favorable rating at 18%/11% and Meek's at 11%/5%, a horserace matchup would probably favor Rubio slightly.

STRONG ADVANTAGE FOR THE REPUBLICANS.

Moore Methods (D) CA-GOV Dem. Primary: Big Lead For Brown

Moore Methods (D) California Poll conducted 6/20-6/23 of 525 Democrats:

Attorney General Jerry Brown 46%
San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom 26%

Moore is a Democratic pollster, but this poll was not commisioned by either candidate. After Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa took his name out of the Democratic field last week, the two men left standing on the Democratic side are Brown and Newsom. And this poll indicates what has been suspected for quite some time, that Brown starts out as a strong favorite. The crosstabs are even better for Brown than the crosstabs would indicate, as he leads 54%-20% among voters 60+, who are much more likely to vote in a midterm primary than younger voters. Geography does give Newsom some hope, especially if he can bring up his name ID. In the Bay Area, where both candidates have comparable name ID, Newsom actually leads 41%-37%, but he gets clobbered 46%-24% in Los Angeles and 52%-23% in the rest of the state. The General Election currently rates as a SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

Rasmussen MA-GOV: Patrick In Trouble

Rasmussen Massachusetts Poll conducted 6/24 of 500 LVs:

Businessman Christy Mihos (R) 41%
Gov. Deval Patrick (D) 40%

Gov. Deval Patrick (D) 41%
Health Care Company CEO Charlie Baker (R) 36%

Patrick was first elected in 2006, ending a long streak of Republican Governors of Massachusetts that dated back to when Michael Dukakis left office. But his approval rating has been floundering lately, with SUSA finding it dipping into the 20s back in April. Rasmussen is slightly more optimistic here for Patrick, pegging his approval rating at 42%, but that still puts him in the danger zone as he goes for a 2nd term next year. Neither Mihos nor Baker are particulary strong challengers, but both are fairly well-liked at this stage: Mihos has a +11 net favorable rating, while Baker is at +10. At the moment, Mihos is running while Baker is considering it, but right now this race appears to be primarily a refernedum on Patrick right now.

Strong►SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR PATRICK.

Governor Rankings: June 2009

After a month break, the second edition of the Governor's rankings is finally here. The Governors races that will be held this year (in the case of NJ & VA) and next year (in the case of the rest on this list) are likely to be full of party switches and thrilling finishes in many of the nation's biggest states. The Democrats currently have a 28-22 majority in the nation's governorships, but most of them will be up this year or next year, 39 of them to be precise. And with Governors receiving much of the blame (fairly or not) for their states' struggling economies, hardly any Governors can truly be considered safe. Throw in the fact that almost half of the Governorships are open, and this may be the most exciting part of next year's midterms. As always, comments or suggestions are always welcome-whether you agree or disagree! Races are ranked from least likely to change hands (#39) to most likely (#1), with April's rankings in parentheses.

39) (38) Nebraska (Heineman-R) Nebraska is one of the state where the GOP is most dominant-they hold all 3 House seats, have lost one Presidential Election here since 1936, and hold every statewide office; the only thorn in their side is Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson.

38) (37) New Hampshire (Lynch-D) Lynch is one the most popular Governors in the country, and his defeat of then-Gov. Craig Benson (R) in 2004 led the way for the recent Democratic surge in the state.

37) (36) Arkansas (Beebe-D) The GOP can't get a legitimate challenger to marginally popular Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), never mind a challenger to the extremely popular Beebe.

36) (33) Maryland (O'Malley-D) Fmr. Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R), who was defeated by O'Malley in 2006, continues to dangle the possiblity of a rematch, but until he decides to take the plunge this race will stay around this part of the rankings.

35) (NR) Utah (Herbert-R) We have a new addition to the list with current Gov. Jon Huntsman (R) being appointed to be Ambassador to China, triggering a special election next year. The current Lt. Gov. Gary Herbert will ascend to the Governorship, and he has already indicated that he intends to run in 2010. But the Democrats do have a potential A-list candidate waiting in the wings in Rep. Jim Matheson, who represents a district that gave McCain almost 60% of the vote last year. If Matheson runs, we'll have a real race here, otherwise expect an easy Hebert win.

34) (35) Idaho (Otter-R) A Greg Smith & Associates poll out this week showed that all of Idaho's politicans are exceptionally popular-except for Otter who is viewed favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 35%. Those numbers are far from terrible, but Otter's fortunate Idaho is a bright-red state where the Democratic bench is virtually nonexistent.

33) (34) Alaska (Palin-R) Rumors are starting to build here that Palin will not seek a second term in 2010. If she plans on running for President in 2012, it does make sense, as running for President while governing remote Alaska isn't easy. She's safe if she runs again, while an open seat would likely pit Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell (R) against Former State House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz (D), a matchup that would favor Parnell.

32) (31) Connecticut (Rell-R) In a time when Governors are very unpopular, and Republicans continue to struggle migntily, it's remarkable how well Gov. Jodi Rell is holding up. A recent Quinnipiac poll showed that 73% of Connecticut voters approve of her job as Governor, including a whopping 68% of Democrats.

31) (30) Texas (Perry-R) It looks like Perry is really starting to turn the corner in his primary against Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, but the race is still going to be very expensive and probably quite close. The good news for the GOP is that Hutchision can't lose in the General, and if Perry is strong enough to beat Hutchision in the Primary, he'll be strong enough to win the General too.

30) (25) New Mexico (Open, Richardson-D) This is the lowest-ranked open seat right now, and it's easy to see why. Democrats have a clear successor to Richardson in Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish, while the Republicans are still waiting for a credible candidate to emerge.

29) (27) South Carolina (Open, Sanford-R) As ugly as the Sanford situation was for the GOP this week, it looks like its 2010 impacts will be limited. Sanford has indicated he will not resign, meaning that LG Andre Bauer will not become Governor, which would have given him a leg up on the Republican field. The one candidate likely hurt the most is State Rep. Nikki Haley (R), who had Sanford's backing and had to quickly pull any mention of him from her website. It looks like the last one standing on the GOP side could be Attorney General Henry McMaster.

28) (32) Illinois (Quinn-D) Half a dozen Republican candidates have announced that they will run for this seat, including DuPage County State's Attorney Joe Birkett, State Sen. Bill Brady, State Sen. Matt Murphy, and DuPage County Board Chair Bob Schillerstrom. But really the key to this race will be Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D)-if she runs, she'll probably beat Quinn in the Primary and would clobber any of the Republicans. If she passes, Quinn will be a substantial but not overwhelming favorite over whoever emerges from the GOP field.

27) (26) Oregon (Open, Kulongoski-D) A Reserach2000 poll this week covered every corner of this race pretty thoroughly, and overall the picture seems pretty good for the Democrats. Either Rep. Peter DeFazio or Fmr. Gov. John Kitzhaber would make strong candidates, while the GOP's hopes largely hinge on the potential candidacy of Rep. Greg Walden. If Walden passes, this should be a pretty easy hold for the Democrats.

26) (28) Iowa (Culver-D) SurveyUSA has Culver's approval rating sinking to 42%, an all-time low for him, but not necessarily a terrible number compared to some other Governors. Businessman Bob Vander Plaats and State Rep. Chris Rants are in the race already for the GOP, with Congressman Steve King said to be considering it.

25) (29) Massachusetts (Patrick-D) Patrick is one of the most unpopular Governors in the country, and the handful of corruption charges among Democrats in the state legislature isn't helping. But the GOP really doesn't have anyone they can run here (no, Mitt Romney isn't running for this office again), and currently their frontrunner is businessman Christy Mihos, who took 7% as an Independent in the 2006 race for this seat.

24) (22) South Dakota (Open, Rounds-R) All eyes here remain on Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D), who may covet the office once held by her grandfather, but seems reluctant to give up her safe House seat to do so. The Democrats need her to run if they want to have a shot to pick up this seat.

23) (16) New York (Paterson-D) Perhaps the biggest change in this race over the last six months has been the continued decline in Paterson's popularity-he's just about entering Bob Taft territory at this point. Even little-known former Congressman Rick Lazio edged him in a recent Siena poll. One has to figure that a credible primary challenger will emerge soon enough-one such possiblity is Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi (D).

22) (23) Maine (Open, Baldacci-D) We finally have a few names here making the transition from potential candidates to candidates. The most prominent one in the race so far is former Attorney General Steve Rowe (D), but he won't have the Democratic field to himself as State Rep. Dawn Hill has entered the race as well. The Republicans continue to lack a big name in the race, and while the GOP is optimistic about some of their potential candidates, none of them are very well-known at this point.

21) (15) Ohio (Open, Strickland-D) Polls are diverging wildly in Ohio, with Quinnipiac putting Strickland way ahead of Fmr. Rep. John Kasich (R), while PPP shows the two neck-and-neck. I wouldn't mind seeing a few more polls before jumping to too many conclusions, but it won't be easy for Strickland in economically-lagging Ohio.

20) (21) Georgia (Open, Perdue-R) Despite the plethora of candidates in the race, two seem to have clearly emerged as the frontrunners: former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) and Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine (R). Barnes is a major recruit for the Democrats; as recently as 2002 he was considered a big favorite for re-election and even a potential Presidential candidate, but then he was defeated in a major upset that year by Republican Sonny Perdue. But he gives the Democrats a candidate with high name ID and big-time fundraising ability, something other Georgia Democrats have lacked recently.

19) (14) Arizona (Brewer-R) Democrats look like they're going to have a very strong candidate here in Attorney General Terry Goddard, who was re-elected by a stellar 60%-40% margin in 2006. Meantime, Brewer continues to struggle with the state's budget; a recent poll showed 37% approve of her job as Governor while 27% disapprove.

18) (20) Wisconsin (Doyle-D) One indication of Doyle's floundering populartiy could be that he has been rumored as the next head of the Peace Corps, which would allow Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton to run as the Democratic standard-bearer instead. Republicans are convinced that they have a rising star in Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker, but polls have diverged on how he fares against Doyle.

17) (24) Colorado (Ritter-D) Ritter's approval rating continues to tumble, and even some liberals are unhappy with him, saying he's governing too much from the center. Fmr. Rep. Scott McInnis is in for the Republicans, and while he's a solid candidate it almost seems like he's trying to fly under the radar. A lot of Republicans like State Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry instead, but he may be too conservative to win statewide.

16) (19) Alabama (Open, Riley-R) Democratic Rep. Artur Davis is off to a solid start, and a PPP poll showed him far in front in the Democratic Primary. The Republican field remains on the thin side, which is a bit of surprise given how well the GOP has done here in recent years. PPP showed Bradley Bryne, the former director of the state's two-year college program, faring best against Davis.

15) (18) Vermont (Douglas-R) Douglas remains fairly popular, but there is some concern among Republicans that Douglas won't try for another term, as he'll already be at 8 years in office by the time his current term expires. Even if he runs again, he is likely to face his strongest challenger since his first election in Secretary Of State Deb Markowitz.

14) (10) Michigan (Open, Granholm-D) The decision by Secretary Of State Terri Land (R) not to run is good news for the Democrats, as she probably would have been the strongest Republican candidate. The GOP now will choose between Rep. Pete Hoekstra, Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, and Attorney General Mike Cox. But who the Republicans nominate may be of secondary importance to how much Lt. Gov. John Cherry (D) is dragged down by the state's economy.

13) (12) Pennsylvania (Open, Rendell-D) It's strange that Pennsylvania gets polled constantly for the Senate race and no one ever seems to bother asking about the race for Governor. So far the only Democratic candidate in the race is businessman Tom Knox, who lost a bid for Philly mayor in 2007, but stronger candidates like Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato and Auditor Jack Wagner are seriously thinking about running. Meantime, Attorney General Tom Corbett remains a strong favorite on the Republican side.

12) (17) Florida (Open, Crist-R) It had been suspected for some time, but with Charlie Crist's decision to run for the Senate we now have an extremely competitive open-seat race on our hands. Both sides already have the nominees set: State CFO Alex Sink for the Democrats and Attorney General Bill McCollum for the Republicans. Early polling shows the race very competitive, although 3 out of the 4 polls have given the edge to McCollum.

11) (11) New Jersey (Corzine-D) There's a scene in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade where the villian tells Indy he's just one step away from finding the Holy Grail, and Indy smugly replies, "This is where the ground falls out from underneath your feet." It's hard not to get the same feeling for the GOP's chances of a pickup here in the Garden State. At the moment, everything seems to be going right for Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R), but there will be a Corzine surge at some point between now and Election Day, and Christie will have to be ready for it.

10) (9) Virginia (Open, Kaine-D) Of the 3 Democrats running for Governor this year, State Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) was clearly the strongest one to take on Attorney General Bob McDonnell (R). Deeds' roots in rural VA combined with the increasing Democratic strength in the DC suburbs make the math tough for McDonnell. I think the key will be SE VA-a combination of low African-American turnout, McDonnell's base being in Virginia Beach, and Deeds' weak showing there in the Democratic Primary means that McDonnell could rack up big margins there.

9) (13) Minnesota (Open, Pawlenty-R) Pawlenty's decision not to seek a 3rd term was obviously a wise one if, as many suspect, he has national ambitions. But it makes the Minnesota Governorship a much tougher hold for the Republicans than it would have been with Pawlenty running. The Democratic field is already packed: Former State House Minority Leader Matt Entenza, Former Senator Mark Dayton, Former State Sen. Steve Kelley, State Sen. Tom Bakk, State Sen. John Marty, and Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner are already in, with perhaps more to come. To me, the key to this race is Fmr. Rep. Jim Ramstad (R), a moderate who crushed all comers when he was representing the usually marginal 3rd district in the Minneapolis suburbs. If he runs, the GOP has a pretty good shot at a hold, otherwise the Democrats will start out as the favorites.

8) (8) California (Open, Schwarzenegger-R) Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa's decision not to run leaves the Democratic field down to Attorney General Jerry Brown and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom. The Republicans meanwhile will pick between three candidates who are economic conservatives and social liberals in Former Rep. Tom Campbell, Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, and Former EBay CEO Meg Whitman. The fact that the Governator has presided over the state's budget difficulties really hurts what could otherwise be a powerful change argument for the GOP.

7) (4) Tennessee (Open, Bredesen-D) There haven't been many fireworks yet in this race, even though each side looks headed towards a crowded primary. But the Republican field looks stronger at the ouset, and the state has been quite friendly to Republicans lately, so chances are we're looking at a Republican takeover.

6) (6) Wyoming (Open?, Freudenthal-D) This race remains on hold until Freudenthal decides whether or not to challenge the state's term-limit law and go for a 3rd term. So far, no Republican is willing to get in and take the chance that Freudenthal, who is extremely popular, decides to run again.

5) (3) Hawaii (Open, Lingle-R) Democrats are heading towards a tough primary here between Rep. Neil Abercrombie and Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, with the better-known Abercrombie starting as a bit of a favorite. Meantime, Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona has the Republican side to himself and is hoping to ride the popular Lingle's cottails. But this is still a fundamentally Democratic state, as evidenced by a recent Reserach2000 poll that showed Aiona trailing both Democrats by 10 points.

4) (2) Nevada (Gibbons-R) Republican Governor Jim Gibbons' approval rating keeps dropping-which is great news for the Republicans. How? The chances continue to increase that Gibbons will lose in the primary to either former State Sen. Joe Heck or North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon. Either would give the GOP a real chance to hold this seat, although with the state going for Obama by 12 points last year, someone like State Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley (D) would start with an advantage if she runs.

3) (5) Oklahoma (Open, Henry-D) Things seem to be coming together nicely for the Republicans in the Sooner State. With Sen. Tom Coburn (R) running for re-election and not going for Governor, along with Former Rep. J.C. Watts' decision not to run, the field is now clear for Rep. Mary Fallin. Meanwhile, Democrats have a primary coming up between Lt. Gov. Jari Askins and Attorney General Drew Edmondson, and a PPP poll shows Fallin comfortably ahead of both Democrats.

2) (7) Rhode Island (Open, Carcieri-R) I'm not really sure where to rank this on the list of "takeovers," as the frontrunner appears to be Former Sen. Lincoln Chafee (I). Chafee was defeated for re-election in 2006 as a Republican, even though his approval rating at the time was over 60%. Attorney General Patrick Lynch and Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts will face off in the Democratic Primary, while State Rep. Joe Trillo appears to be basically a token Republican candidate. One key here is what kind of percentage Trillo gets; the better he does, the more he'll take votes from Chafee.

1) (1) Kansas (Open, Parkinson, D) The Republican field is now clear for Sen. Sam Brownback (R) with Secretary Of State Ron Thornbrough's decision to drop out. It almost feels like Brownback is the incumbent in this race, with no significant Democratic opposition on the horizon.

Governor Rankings Will Be Up Tomorrow!

I might actually have a chance to have them up this evening, so check in for updates!

Quinnipiac NY-SEN: Democratic Primary A Toss-Up

Quinnipiac New York Poll conducted 6/16-6/21 of 2477 RVs:

Democratic Primary:

Rep. Carolyn Maloney 27%
Sen. Kirstin Gillibrand 23%

General Election:

Sen. Kirstin Gillibrand (D) 44%
Rep. Peter King (R) 28%

Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D) 42%
Rep. Peter King (R) 26%

Unlike the Governor race, the Senate race looks like it will have a very competitive Primary. Despite the best efforts of people like Obama and Schumer to clear the field for Gillibrand, Maloney is running and starts off with a very slight lead. The crosstabs paint a good picture for Maloney too, as Gillibrand has a 29%/8% favorable rating among Democrats, but Maloney is even stronger at 34%/2%. And ideologically, Maloney is a much better fit for the wealth of liberal NYC Democratic Primary voters. The good news also for Maloney is that she does just as well in the General Election as Gillibrand against King. The only way we have a competitive race here is if Maloney beats Gillibrand in a particularly ugly primary, allowing King to take advantage. But there are still questions of whether or not the Long Island Republican would even run, and another Republican might have a tougher time.

STRONG ADVANTAGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

Quinnipiac NY-GOV: Giuliani Leads Paterson, Trails Cuomo

Quinnipiac New York Poll conducted 6/16-6/21 of 2477 RVs:

Democratic Primary:

Attorney General Andrew Cuomo 57%
Gov. David Paterson 20%

General Election:

Fmr. NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) 52%
Gov. David Paterson (D) 34%

Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) 51%
Fmr. NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) 39%

What should the over/under be on polls of this race, especially if there's no blowout matchup like Cuomo/Lazio? We're already at five; I think I'd put the over/under at about 75 by next November. So this poll really tells us what we already know: Cuomo would crush Paterson in a Primary, and would easily beat any Republican in a General, even Giuliani. I still have a very hard time believing Paterson will eventually be the Democratic nominee, but so far no major Democrat has stepped forward to challenge him.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

Lyceum TX-GOV Primaries: Perry and Friedman Lead

Lyceum Texas Poll conducted 6/5-6/12 of 860 adults, pdf here:

Republican Primary:

Gov. Rick Perry 33%
Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison 21%

Democratic Primary:

2006 Independent Candidate Kinky Freidman 10%
Fmr. Ambassador Tom Schieffer 6%
State Sen. Leticia Van De Putte 3%

There are two obvious issues with this poll: the poll is of just "adults," as 24% of repsondents aren't even registered to vote, and secondly they didn't poll Perry's approval rating for some reason. Anyway, quietly the Republican Primary appears to have turned here pretty quickly. Initially, it looked like Hutchison was the big favorite, but Perry held a slim lead in an April Rasmussen poll and now claims a 12-point lead here. All this despite 65% of all respondents saying they approved of the job Hutchison is doing as Senator. This may just be a case where Republicans like both Hutchison and Perry, and don't see any reason to make a change. Meantime, the always interesting Friedman has a fairly meaningless early lead over Schieffer; Van De Putte announced earlier this week that she won't run. The poll also tested the race for Hutchison's Senate seat should it become open; Democratic Houston Mayor Bill White has the early edge with tons of undecided voters.

FMC PA-SEN: Specter's Approval Rating Sinks, Weak In Primary

Franklin & Marshall College Pennsylvania Poll conducted 6/16-6/21 of 580 adults, pdf here:

Democratic Primary:

Sen. Arlen Specter 33%
Rep. Joe Sestak 13%

Specter's Approval Rating Among All Voters:

Approve: 34%
Disapprove: 55%

The Primary numbers are interesting because they put the incumbent Specter far below the 50% barrier, although FMC tends to have a lot of undecideds. But there is clearly a major opening for Sestak in the Primary, as only 46% of Democrats approve of his job as Senator, and just 43% say he deserves re-election. Perhaps even more troubling for Specter is his lack of appeal in the General Election: in additon to the 34% approval rating, just 28% say he deserves re-election. One can't help but wonder if Specter is stuck in the middle, with Republicans viewing him as too liberal and Democrats viewing him as too conservative.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

NY-GOV: Lazio Will Run

A spokesman for Fmr. Rep. Rick Lazio (R) said yesterday that the former Long Island Congressman will run for Governor next year. Lazio of course ran for the Senate in 2000 against Hillary Clinton, and although he lost by a bigger-than-expected 12 points, it's the closest the Republicans have come to winning anything meaningful in New York since George Pataki was re-elected in 2002. Lazio also has the advantage of going up against terribly unpopular Gov. David Paterson (D), although it's highly debatable whether Paterson will actually wind up being the Democratic nominee. There's also the question of whether or not Rudy Giuliani will enter the race, as it seems all but certain that Lazio would defer to Giuliani. Lazio actually would have a pretty good chance against Paterson, but he probably can't beat any other Democrat.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR PATERSON.

MI-GOV: Land Won't Run

In quite a surprise, Secretary Of State Terri Land (R) announced she won't run for Governor, eliminating potentially the strongest Republican candidate in the state. Land, re-elected by a double-digit margin in 2006 despite a horrible Republican climate, instead endorsed Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, who lost that year to Sen. Debbie Stabenow. That leaves the Republican field down to Bouchard, Attorney General Mike Cox, and Rep. Pete Hoekstra. Land's departure should help Hoekstra, as he is now the only Republican in the field from Western Michigan, the most Republican part of the state. Republicans have a very good pickup opportunity there next year as the state has obviously suffered from hard times recently, during which time Democrat Jennifer Granholm was Governor. Her Lt. Gov., John Cherry, looks like the likely Democratic nominee at this point.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

SC-GOV: A Few Thoughts On Sanford

Another potential 2012 Republican Presidential candidate bit the dust this week with South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford admitting to an extramarital affair, shortly after his mysterious disappearance over the weekend. Sanford is the 2nd potential 2012 candidate in two weeks to have this revelation, following Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) last week. Sanford would have made for an intriguing candidate: a libertarian-style Republican with 4 terms of Congress and 2 terms as Governor on his resume. Instead, other potential 2012 candidates like Palin, Huckabee, and especially Romney aren't too upset about these two candidates essentially being taken out of the running.

More immediately, Sanford's scandal could have a major impact on the Governor's seat he was already set to vacate because of term limts next year. The key to any potential Sanford resignation is the state's Lietenant Governor, Andre Bauer. Sanford and Bauer have never really gotten along, and Bauer-who was elected by just a 3000 vote margin in 2006-is viewed by many Republicans as a political liability. If Sanford does resign, which he doesn't want to but may be forced to, Bauer would become Governor and would have a leg up on challengers Attorney General Henry McMaster, State Rep. Nikki Haley, and Rep. Gresham Barrett. However, the chances of Bauer winning the primary without being the incumbent seem relatively small. The good news for the GOP is that the Democratic bench in the state is paper-thin, so no matter what the circumstances a Democratic pickup here won't be easy.

STRONG ADVANTAGE FOR THE REPUBLICANS.

R2000/DKos OR-GOV: Dems Favored

Research2000/DailyKos Oregon Poll conducted 6/22-6/24 of 600 RVs:

Fmr. Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) 46%
Fmr. Sen. Gordon Smith (R) 37%

Fmr. Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) 44%
Rep. Greg Walden (R) 38%

Fmr. Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) 48%
State Sen. Jason Atkinson (R) 35%

Rep. Peter DeFazio (D) 47%
Fmr. Sen. Gordon Smith (R) 37%

Rep. Peter DeFazio (D) 45%
Rep. Greg Walden (R) 37%

Rep. Peter DeFazio (D) 48%
State Sen. Jason Atkinston (R) 34%

Fmr. Secretary Of State Bill Bradbury (D) 42%
Fmr. Sen. Gordon Smith (R) 38%

Fmr. Secretary Of State Bill Bradbury (D) 40%
Rep. Greg Walden (R) 39%

Fmr. Secretary Of State Bill Bradbury (D) 41%
State Sen. Jason Atkinson (R) 34%

Fmr. Sen. Gordon Smith (R) 41%
Attorney Steve Novick (D) 28%

Rep. Greg Walden (R) 43%
Attorney Steve Novick (D) 28%

State Sen. Jason Atkinson (R) 34%
Attorney Steve Novick (D) 29%

As often happens early on in open seat races, we get a poll with a ton of permutations, in this case twelve of them, to test the open race for Governor of Oregon. Only one of the candidates tested, Bradbury, is actually in the race officially right now. Rather than breaking down all of the matchups, here are a few overall thoughts. First, there seems to be no opening for Smith, defeated for re-election last year by a surprisingly close margin; he trails Bradbury in this poll even though he clocked him by 16 points in the 2002 Senate race. Meanwhile, Walden, the only Republican in the state's Congressional delegation, appears to be the strongest Republican candidate if he runs, but if he passes, the more conservative Atkinson would probably the GOP frontrunner. On the Democratic side, DeFazio and Kitzhaber are both interested, but neither wants to run against the other, so it looks like a waiting game. The bottom line though is that it's very difficult to think of a situation where the Democrats won't be favored here, at least at the outset.

STRONG ADVANTAGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

PPP OH-SEN: Both Dems Lead

Public Policy Polling Ohio Poll conducted 6/17-6/19 of 619 RVs, pdf here:

Secretary Of State Jennifer Brunner (D) 40%
Fmr. Rep. Rob Portman (R) 32%

Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) 41%
Fmr. Rep. Rob Portman (R) 32%

Buckeye state voters don't seem to like any of their choices in the race to replace retiring Sen. George Voinovich (R), as only Fisher barely musters a positive net favorable rating at 32%/31%. There has been some talk of Brunner dropping out due to poor fundraising, but her poll numbers here are virtually identical to Fisher, as she is at 32%/32% favorable. Among Democrats, there's also no difference as Brunner is at 51%/13% and Fisher is at 51%/12%. But the real story from this poll is the big turnaround from PPP's last poll earlier this year which showed Portman ahead by almost 10 points. Instead, PPP's numbers this time resemble that of Quinnipiac, indicating that Democrats are the slight favorites to pick up this seat. Unlike the two Democrats, Portman has never been elected statewide, perhaps contributing to his difficulties, but even among voters who know him he's at -12 net favorable.

Slight Portman►SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

Rasmussen FL-GOV: McCollum Ahead

Rasmussen Florida Poll conducted 6/22 of 500 LVs:

Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) 42%
State CFO Alex Sink (D) 34%

The early polls on this very important race have been mixed, with Quinnipiac showing a slight Sink lead, and SV, Mason-Dixon, and now Rasmussen giving the edge to McCollum. But all the polls have shown plenty of undecideds, and in each of the polls both candidates seem quite well-liked (just wait until the negative ads start, though). McCollum starts out with a stellar 53%/26% favorable rating, while Sink is a bit weaker at 50%/32%. One caveat for McCollum though is that of the 53% who view him favorably, just 11% view him "very favorably," perhaps an indication of soft support for the consevative Attorney General. All told, the four polls average out to a 3-point McCollum lead, which sounds just about right for now.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR McCOLLUM.

Rasmussen FL-SEN: Crist Far Ahead

Rasmussen Florida Poll conducted 6/22 of 500 LVs:

Gov. Charlie Crist (R) 46%
Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) 28%

Gov. Charlie Crist (R) 50%
Rep. Corrine Brown (D) 29%

The new name here is Brown's and indeed the 3rd district Congresswoman has been floating her name as a potential candidate for this seat. However, she isn't as skilled politically as Meek and would start well behind in money and endorsements. The poll did not include any mention of Former House Speaker Marco Rubio (R), who recieved a non-trivial endorsement today from Jeff Miller from the super-conservative 1st district, an area where Rubio could do well but needs to become better known. The poll also does show by far the most likely matchup, Crist/Meek, a bit closer than other polls, but I wouldn't read all that much into it. Crist has a 57% favorable rating, while 60% approve of his performance as Governor; meanwhile Meek has a somewhat lackluster 37%/36% favorable rating.

STRONG ADVANTAGE FOR THE REPUBLICANS.

SV NJ-GOV: Christie Still Strong

Strategic Vision New Jersey Poll conducted 6/19-6/21 of 800 LVs:

Fmr. US Attorney Chris Christie (R) 51%
Gov. Jon Corzine (D) 39%

Frequent readers of my site know that I have long been skeptical of Christie's chances here despite his consistent leads in the polls due to the GOP's recent overpolling in New Jersey. But I have to admit that I'm starting to relent, as this makes 3 polls in a row that have had Christie at or above 50% and ahead by double digits, something other unsuccessful Republicans in the state have been unable to accomplish even once. But despite Corzine recently hitting the airwaves, just 34% approve of his performance as Governor, and an even smaller number, 28%, think the state is on the right track. Still, keep in mind that we are barely three weeks removed from Christie's primary win, so there may still be a bit of a bump included in his numbers that won't last. But if the numbers continue to look like this into July, then a change in the rating will be in order.

SLIGHT ADVANTAGE FOR CORZINE.

Rasmussen GA-GOV Primaries: Barnes and Oxendine Big Leaders

Rasmussen Georgia Poll conducted 6/17 of 247 Democrats and 463 Republicans:

Democratic Primary:

Fmr. Gov. Roy Barnes 48%
Attorney General Thurbert Baker 8%
State House Minority Leader DuBose Porter 5%
Fmr. Secretary Of State David Pothyress 2%
Ray City Mayor Carl Camon 2%

Republican Primary:

Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine 35%
Secretary Of State Karen Handel 11%
Rep. Nathan Deal 10%
State Senate President Eric Johnson 3%
State Rep. Austin Scott 2%
Radio Station Owner Ray McBerry 1%

Rasmussen find a very different result that Strategic Vision did in the Democratic Primary here, with Barnes clobbering the entire Democratic field. But the biggest difference is in Bakers' number, not Barnes', and if Barnes can get to 50% he can avoid a runoff, and this poll shows him very close with 31% still undecided. Baker's 45%/17% favorable rating among Democrats isn't especially strong, but Barnes' 64%/12% is outstanding. It's very early, and some of it is name ID, but Barnes is the clear frontrunner.

Meanwhile on the Republican side, no one seems to have benefitted more from Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle's exit from the race than Oxendine, who leads by 22 points according to SV and 24 points here. Deal's 28%/14% favorable rating from Republicans isn't great, and while Handel has a solid 49%/10% favorable rating, just 10% of those 49% view her "very favorably." Oxendine fares best at 61%/18%, including 26% who view him favorably. Obviously plenty can change, but it looks like a Barnes/Oxendine matchup is most likely at this point. The general election is currently rated as a SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR THE REPUBLICANS.

POR (D) OH-02: Krikorian Already Hot on Schmid'ts Heels

Pulse Opinion Research (D) OH-02 Poll conducted 6/11 of 500 LVs, pdf here:

Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) 44%
2008 Independent Candidate David Krikorian (D) 39%

Caveat: this is a Democratic poll. Kirkorian ran as an Independent candidate in 2008 and won a strong 18% of the vote, although that may have as much to do with Schmidt's weakness as anything. Normally, the 2nd is prime Republican territory-McCain carried it 59%-40% last year, and Obama's approval rating is 40% in the district according to this poll. But Schmidt has won her three terms in this district with 51%, 51%, and 45% of the vote, hardly numbers that inspire Republican confidence. And indeed her favorable splits are 42% favorable/46% unfavorable, with even 21% of Republicans viewing her unfavorably. Kirkorian doesn't fare all that much better at 30%/30%, but it may not matter if Schmidt can't rehabilitate her image in the next year and a half. I don't change my ratings based on partisan polls, but I'll keep an eye out for any other signs this race is heading towards toss-up territory.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR SCHMIDT.

LA-SEN, DE-SEN: Each Side On The Verge of a BIG Get

Both parties appear to be very close to netting major recruits in two high-profile Senate races next year. In Louisiana, Rep. Charlie Melancon (D), the only Democratic member of the state's House delegation, looks like he's just about certain to run next year against Sen. David Vitter (R). Normally this matchup would significantly favor Vitter, but his personal popularity has taken a substantial hit due to allegations he was involved with a prostitute shortly after he was elected to the Senate. Melancon is exactly the right kind of Democrat for Louisiana, a moderate from Cajun Country who Vitter will find difficult to paint as a liberal. The only poll of this matchup from Research2000 showed Vitter leading Melancon by just 48%-41%. However, an open seat in Melancon's LA-03 House District could give the GOP a golden pickup opportunity in a district that McCain carried 61%-38% last year.

Meantime in Delaware, the Republicans look like they could get a major recruit in at-large Congressman and Former Governor Mike Castle (R). While some have speculated that Castle, who will turn 70 next week, is more likely to retire, the idea of just a 4-year term in the Senate (he would be running to fill Joe Biden's unexpired term) might appeal to him. The article even speculates that Biden's son Beau, the state Attorney General, might pass on this race that he was widely expected to enter, as he may not want to risk taking on the only Republican in the state who could beat him. Castle's open House seat would be a prime Democratic pickup opportunity if he runs for the Senate, especially with Fmr. Lt. Gov. John Carney (D) already in on the Democratic side. I'll adjust the ratings for each race if and when these two candidates make official announcements.

CA-GOV: Los Angeles Mayor Villaraigosa Out

Contradicting what has long been the conventional wisdom in the Golden State, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D) will not run for Governor next year, which he just announced an hour ago on CNN. With Lt. Gov. John Garamendi running in the Special House Election in CA-10, that leaves the only two heavy hitters on the Democratic side as Attorney General Jerry Brown and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom. Newsom, best known for his early support of gay marriage in SF, should run well among younger voters and those in the Bay Area. But Brown may do better among older voters and in the rest of the state, where voters may remember his time as Governor from 1975-1983. This also makes the key Hispanic demographic, which otherwise may have been strong for Villaraigosa, up for grabs. The Republican field includes Fmr. Rep. Tom Campbell, Fmr. EBay CEO Meg Whitman, and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner. The race is currently rated as a SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

Siena NY-GOV: Surprise! Paterson Is Unpopular

Siena New York Poll conducted 6/15-6/18 of 626 RVs, pdf here:

Democratic Primary:

Attorney General Andrew Cuomo 69%
Gov. David Paterson 16%

General Election:

Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) 49%
Fmr. NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) 40%

Fmr. NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) 57%
Gov. David Paterson (D) 27%

It always amuses me how often New York gets polled, due to its huge population and the large concentration of media, but realistically the state hasn't seen anything resembling an interesting race since Clinton/Lazio almost a decade ago. The race for Governor next year continues to rely heavily on the potential candidacies of Giuliani and Cuomo. Cuomo continues to say he won't run for Governor next year, perhaps spooked by his disastrous run for Governor in 2002, but I think eventually he'll wind up running. Giuliani has been pretty noncommital, but running for Governor of New York is no small undertaking and he doesn't seem to be laying the groundwork for a run at this point. Perhaps the most interesting scenario would happen if neither ran, which could lead to a very unpopular Paterson running against a little-known Republican like Lazio or Erie County Executive Chris Collins.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

PPP OH-GOV: Toss-Up?!

Public Policy Polling Ohio Poll conducted 6/17-6/19 of 619 RVs, pdf here:

Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 44%
Fmr. Rep. John Kasich (R) 42%

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to today's edition of dueling pollsters. In one corner, you have Quinnipiac which has shown Strickland up 20 and 19 points in their two polls here, while PPP has found Strickland up 6 and 2 points in their two tries. And as was pointed out on PPP's site, both pollsters had similarly accurate results in the Buckeye State in 2008. This also continues a bit of a run for PPP with polls showing vulnerable Democratic incumbents-their polls also showed Govs. Jim Doyle (D-WI) and Bill Ritter (D-CO) in more trouble than conventional wisdom would indicate. Oddly, their Ohio sample seems way too Democratic, with 50% of respondents considering themselves Democrats (just 39% did so in the 2008 exit poll). I have a hard time believing Kasich is this close this early-he hasn't been elected statewide before, and his last election to Congress was 11 years ago, so his name ID can't be that high. But that said, I do expect a competitive race here eventually: the Governors of most large states have been struggling lately (Schwarzenegger, Paterson, Granholm, Patrick, both Perdues), and the state naturally tends towards competitive races. Keep an eye on this one for sure, but I wouldn't write off Strickland yet by any means.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR STRICKLAND.

Harstad Research (D) NM-GOV: Denish Far Ahead

Harstad Research (D) New Mexico Poll conducted 5/31-6/4 of 613 LVs, pdf here:

Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D) 57%
Fmr. Rep. Steve Pearce (R) 35%

Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D) 57%
Fmr. Rep. Heather Wilson (R) 35%

Caveat: this is a Democratic poll. Denish seems like the heir appearant to term-limited Gov. Bill Richardson (D), and fortunately for her it doesn't seem like the scandals surrounding Richardson are hurting her standing at all. Pearce and Wilson faced off in the Republican Senate Primary, which Pearce won by a narrow margin before being crushed by Rep. Tom Udall (D) in the General. Both Pearce and Wilson are looking at this race next year, although neither is officially running yet and one can't help but wonder if they're both waiting for the other to make up their mind. But it may all be a moot point against Denish, who in this poll leads both Republicans among whites and by almost 3:1 among Hispanics, who make up over 1/3 of the state's electorate.

STRONG ADVANTAGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

Moore Research (R) OR-GOV: Walden Would Be Competitive

Moore Research (R) Oregon Poll conducted 6/2-6/3 of 506 RVs:

Fmr. Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) 42%
Rep. Greg Walden (R) 38%

Rep. Peter DeFazio (D) 41%
Rep. Greg Walden (R) 37%

Rep. Greg Walden (R) 39%
Fmr. Secretary Of State Bill Bradbury (D) 35%

Caveat: Moore is a Republican pollster. This seat is open with Gov. Ted Kulonogoski (D) term-limited next year, but so far the race has been pretty quiet with Bradbury and businessman Allen Alley (R) the only candidates to officially enter the race. For the most part this has been considered a seat that Democrats are likely to hold next year, as it's been decades since Oregon has elected a Republican Governor. However, this poll indicates that Walden, whose massive district includes all of Southern and Eastern Oregon, could potentially run a competitive race. Personally, though, I have my doubts about whether he'll run, as he is safe in his House seat and may not want to risk it on, at best, a 50/50 statewide bid. The moderate Walden does seem to have crossover appeal, as a double-digit percentage of Democrats say they'd vote for him in all 3 matchups. But until he makes a decision, Democrats will remain big favorites as the GOP really doesn't have many other strong options here aside from Walden.

STRONG ADVANTAGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

R2000/DKos HI-GOV: Dems Lead, But Primary Looms

Research2000/DailyKos Hawaii Poll conducted 6/15-6/17 of 600 RVs:

Democratic Primary:

Rep. Neil Abercrombie 42%
Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hanneman 22%

General Election:

Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D) 45%
Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona (R) 36%

Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann (D) 44%
Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona (R) 34%

No doubt this seat, which will be open next year as Republican Gov. Linda Lingle is term-limited, will be one of the best Democratic pickup opportunities in the country next year. Although Hannemann has a slightly better favorability rating, the liberal Abercrombie may a better fit in the Democratic Primary. If Aiona is going to try to hold this seat for the Republicans, that may be his opening as Hawaii usually holds a very late Primary. The Republican Lt. Gov. is pretty well-liked, as he has a 44%/26% favorable mark, including a very respectable 32%/41% among Democrats. But the demographics of the state work very sharply against him, for instance he leads 84%-6% against Abercrombie among Republicans, but there are simply too few of them for Aiona to win unless he gets a big chunk of Democrats to vote for him, as Lingle did.

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

R2000/DKos HI-SEN: Inouye Would Handle Lingle

Research2000/DailyKos Hawaii Poll conducted 6/15-6/17 of 600 RVs:

Sen. Daniel Inouye (D) 52%
Gov. Linda Lingle (R) 40%

Lingle is term-limited next year, so she may be looking for the next office to run for, but I'm not sure she's going to be eager to take on an institution like Inouye. I think it's much more likely she waits for one of the Senators to retire, when she would probably have much better shot an open seat. Lingle would be a formidable candidate at that point, as a narrow majority of Hawaiians (51%) view her favorably, even in this dark blue state.

OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE FOR INOUYE.